im a nit, but is this line too nittish?

UTG is 25/5 over 1.5k,54% cbet the only note I have on him is
"all in pre AA" (note from jan this year)
The note is seriously lacking, maybe he was a shortie then or something. should I have taken notice of this ancient note ?

I decided to play QQ for set value, I gave him UTG range of AA,KK

Microgaming - €0.02 NL - Holdem - 10 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: €4.36
UTG+1: €1.95
MP: €2.01
MP+1: €1.84
MP+2: €1.64
LP: €2.01
CO: €3.07
Hero (BTN): €5.40
SB: €0.43
BB: €2.07

SB posts SB €0.01, BB posts BB €0.02

Pre Flop: (€0.03) Hero has Q Q

UTG raises to €0.12, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls €0.12, fold, fold, Hero calls €0.12, fold, BB calls €0.10

Flop: (€0.49, 4 players) 2 9 J
BB checks, UTG bets €0.44, fold, fold, fold

UTG wins €0.45

Yes.

You're even nittier than I am. Fuck.

Utg has a way wider range than KK+, in fact I'd say he has TT-JJ more often than KK+ due to raise size. Of course, I don't know how villain plays his big hands, but I find x6 raise pre is mostly JJ, often TT QQ and AK, and rarely KK+ and 99-.

I'd give villain TT+ AK and take my chances. I'd 3bet pre and flat call this flop, folding if K or A falls, and calling down to most bets if QQ remains overpair.

Don't be so fucking weak!

ok, replies welcomed, as it happens, about 5 hands later, he throws an unprevoked all in pre, everyone folds, so it appears he maybe KK+ ALLIN. ill work through his HH. update my notes

pokerstove.com

prolly a fine fold

I'm on my sister's comp so I don't have stove, but we're slightly ahead against TT+ AK aren't we? Factor in him having TT-JJ more often than KK-AA due to his raise size (I'm basing this on my average villain, I obv don't know this guy's tendancies) and I think we're in great shape.

Maybe 3betting is a little reckless, we don't want to narrow his range by him folding out tens. I don't really like this flop since I think he has jacks a high % of the time, but so long as I think he can put money in with TT and AK, I can call this down.

His unprovoked shove is AK probably >80% of the time, especially if he's out of position.

given the description of the player do you really expect him to cbet TT almost ever here into this many people?

he also didn't shove we still have money behind going on to the turn.

If we exclude AA, KK from his range and he cbets his entire range we're good 70% of the time. Keep in AA, KK and it's 56%. We don't get in trouble until we give him only sets and over pairs, which I can't see narrowing his range that far at this point so, dunno, can't see a fold here.

^^good point.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

given the description of the player do you really expect him to cbet TT almost ever here into this many people?

I should read the HH better. I thought we were heads up, I missed the bb calling. Sorry about that.

HU I expect him to fire this flop with his entire range, not sure 3handed oop. Ok, a fine fold indeed.

The shove comment was related to celtic's second post, the comment regarding villain's shove five hands later, not the hand we're discussing.

With reads alone villain is almost always overbetting/shipping the nuts no?

Still, I think I'd b/f tens here in villain's shoes.

Originally Posted by supa

With reads alone villain is almost always overbetting/shipping the nuts no?

I don't really think the note is descriptive enough. Who isn't willing to get it in pre with AA? We need to know if his shove was a dumb shove.

I'm under the impression that he's open shipping or shipping to a regular raise. Either way it doesn't sound like he's waiting for a 4 or 5 bet to ship, and is more of a hail mary type shipper.

Thank you all for discussing this hand, I value your insight and opinions.

Equity Win Tie
UTG 47.63% 46.25% 1.38% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
BU 52.37% 50.99% 1.38% { QhQc }

however based on my revised notes, his historic PF range is now

UTG { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ } 44.96% - 55.04%

His cbet habbit suggests hes hit,

updated notes after player HH review, bet sizing/ cbetting important tells.

Code:

2xbb rse UTG w/ A4s,44s,99,88 checks missed flop,check/calls a A52 flop w/ 44 tho
5-6xbb rse UTG/MP w/ AKs,QQ,AQo, cbets hit flops
5xbb rse w/ AA, in sbvbb check calls a QJTr J 2 board, (pot stays small)
All in pre twice (unprevoked) AA,KK
summary, doesnt part with $$ easily on missed flops

i like preflop. flop is kind of close. i guess it comes down to what frequency we expect AK to be in there. i guess in play i'd peel one with intentions of playing the turn verrrrrrrrrry cautiously.

I can't say that I'd peel one when he punches about 90% of the pot on the flop. He's still got a good bit behind and we're liable to be facing a bet on the turn that we cannot call.
Why burn $$$ by calling on the flop with the intentions of folding on the turn?

because he probably shuts down with AK 100% of the time he has it imo. though i wouldn't fault someone for just folding the flop.

wtf call flop atleast can fold turn but c'mon

Calling QQ with intention to fold if you don't hit a set on a flop vs a nit? At least call flop and evaluate villains turn action.

I've setmined KK once.

I always do, nits play only AA these days.

dear old men everywhere: quit poker plz