Get Better at Continuation Betting in One Lesson

This guy from FTR found my Skype and was interested in getting better at poker. I made this example specifically for him, but I figured that I would post it here so some of you guys can follow along and get something out of it too.

Some Shitty Site - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

SB: $10.00 - 25/20 over a small sample
BB: $10.00 - 21/16, 84% FTS, 7% 3Bet, 58% fold to cbet over 500 hands
UTG: $10.00
MP: $10.00
Hero (CO): $10.00
BTN: $10.00 - Unknown

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has a range

UTG folds, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BU folds, SB fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop A: ($0.65, 2 players) K 2 9

Flop B: ($0.65, 2 players) Q 8 4

BB checks, Hero bets $0.45, BB calls

Turn A: ($1.55, 2 players) A

Turn B: ($1.55, 2 players) 2

BB checks, Hero bets $1.10


The exercise is for you to figure out what your range is for c-betting each flop. Then you should figure out what your range for c-betting each turn after it comes after each flop. Give the logic and thought processes for your answers. Feel free to copy/paste the following layout for your answers to help keep everything straight.

0. What is your pre-flop range?

1. C-Betting Flop A: K 2 9

2. C-Betting Turn A after Flop A: K 2 9 A

3. C-Betting Turn B after Flop A: K 2 9 2

4. C-Betting Flop B: Q 8 4

5. C-Betting Turn A after Flop B: Q 8 4 A

6. C-Betting Turn B after Flop B: Q 8 4 2

0. What is your pre-flop range?

This guy's got a pretty high FTS so if it were just me and him it would be approaching 100% however there are others to act so we're probably looking at something like 40-50% here, something like...

22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J8s+, 45s-9Ts, 46s-8Ts, 58s-7Ts, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, 56o-9To


1. C-Betting Flop A: K 2 9

I'm not sure if this is the correct maths for cbetting here but for a cbet to be +eV on it's own in a vaccum we need (.45/(.45+.65))=41% fold equity and given he fold's to cbets 58% over a decent sample size I'd guess we can go ahead and cbet our entire range here profitably?

Not to mention if he calls we get to play subsequent streets in position.


2. C-Betting Turn A after Flop A: K 2 9 A

I'm generally more likely to barrel this card I think as it's a 'scare card,' especially if I have some kind of equity like an FD or I picked up a SD here, also I have a lot of value hands so my range here is something like...

22, 99, KK+, Ad2d-Ad8d, Qd7d-Qd9d, Jd8d-Jd9d, 5d4d-9dTd, 4d6d-8dTd, 5d8d-7dTd, JTs, QTs-QJs, ATs+, A9o, AQo+, QJo, QTo, JTo

Checking back all the hands that have SDV that aren't strong, like 9x, Kx, etc.

Unsure though how much fold equity I can have here, though it's certainly more than Turn B. I think he can fold a lot of TT-QQ, KJ-KQ, maybe some smaller pairs that floated the flop.


3. C-Betting Turn B after Flop A: K 2 9 2

This is pretty much a brick so I'll be betting a much stronger range here, checking back all my flush draws, etc.

ATs+, A2o, A9o, AQo+, 22, 99, KK+, KJs+, KJo+


4. C-Betting Flop B: Q 8 4

Flop is a lot dryer than Flop A. Makes me more inclined to bet my entire range as I expect a little more fold equity.


5. C-Betting Turn A after Flop B: Q 8 4 A

Again, the 'scare card.' However because the flop was a lot dryer I expect to have less equity when called here because I have far fewer semi bluffs possible...

ATs+, AQo+, 44, 88, QQ+, 9T-JTs, 9To-JTo, as well as any flush draws I picked up


6. C-Betting Turn B after Flop B: Q 8 4 2

Brick. Value betting here the vast majority of the time as he's not going to fold very much.

22, 44, 88, QQ+, AQs, AQo, KQs, KQo, QJs, QJo



I'm a lot more unsure on Turn A

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Thanks for doing this spoon - I think this will prove really useful and I'll give it a crack. First time I’ve given one of these a go, so any feedback much appreciated (esp as cbetting is a leak of mine).

Assuming identical players behind and villain isn’t tricky, mildly competent at hand reading and:
3bets 7% vs CO open, let's say {JJ+, AQ+, 22-55, T9s-87s}
Cold calls 10%, let's say {TT-66,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QJo},:

0. What is your pre-flop range? Approx. 25% and maybe up to 30% given passive nature of those behind i.e. All pps, all broadways, all suited aces, most off suit aces, T9s-87s

1. C-Betting Flop A: K 2 9 Entire opening range. Villain’s calling range is approx half of their preflop cold calling range {TT,AdJd,AdTd,KTs+,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,KTo+,77} and we have position.

2. C-Betting Turn A after Flop A: K 2 9 ASnap thought is my entire opening range given this is a scare card for villain who only has 2 combos of aces from ~60 continuing combos. Depending on our image though, villain may not lay down any of his continuing range apart from a few combos of TT. I think I would basically bet my entire range on this turn but if betting turn as a bluff, I’d expect to have to barrel river.

3. C-Betting Turn B after Flop A: K 2 9 2 Probably continue only for value slash protection and check back combos with showdown value, as it’s difficult to see villain folding much of his flop continuing range on this turn card and treble barrelling river is likely to prove expensive.

4. C-Betting Flop B: Q 8 4 Entire range. Villain’s continuing range is approx 40% of his cold calling range.

5. C-Betting Turn A after Flop B: Q 8 4 A Effectively same as 2, but this time there are zero aces in villain’s range and less flush draws.

6. C-Betting Turn B after Flop B: Q 8 4 2:spade Effectively same as 3.:

.

I edited the OP to give the button and SB some reads to go on.

I've been involved in donk level poker for around 4 years, and I've been through numerous thought processes and mini-epiphanies. After speaking to lots of different people and reading/watching lots of different stuff, I have to say that if you want a long term future in the game and any variant of the game, Spoonitnow is one of the only people worth listening to in terms of his approach i.e. math and theory.

Feel based poker (as opposed to math/theory based poker) is short-term imo.

Most players play the former approach, and that includes people who've made fuck tons from the game.

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

I've been involved in donk level poker for around 4 years, and I've been through numerous thought processes and mini-epiphanies. After speaking to lots of different people and reading/watching lots of different stuff, I have to say that if you want a long term future in the game and any variant of the game, Spoonitnow is one of the only people worth listening to in terms of his approach i.e. math and theory.

Feel based poker (as opposed to math/theory based poker) is short-term imo.

Most players play the former approach, and that includes people who've made fuck tons from the game.

I recommend that people study examples with the theory in mind during their study so that they develop a feel for spots based on getting familiar with what is going on. A lot of "feel" based players don't do this, so they just end up playing according to some set of memorized rules which will only get them so far.

I'm going to go question by question and throw out some ideas for you guys. The main two themes here are planning for the turn when you c-bet the flop and c-betting the turn whenever you have pot equity (ie outs vs better hands) and fold equity.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

0. What is your pre-flop range?

This is the least important question of the exercise. Anything reasonable is going to be fine here, but use your actual range because I'm going to call you out on it in a later exercise.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

1. C-Betting Flop A: K 2 9

Strong made hands and diamond flush draws are obvious choices here. The most underrated c-betting hand here is probably something like JT of clubs. It's so good because it gives you a lot of good turn cards to c-bet with (all diamonds, all clubs, any Ace), and plus you have a gutshot and chances to hit a pair if Villain calls down with TT or 9x.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

2. C-Betting Turn A after Flop A: K 2 9 A

This is a great card to c-bet on the turn with a relatively wide range. It's very hard for Villain to make a second call with something like JJ here knowing that he will have to face a river bet sometimes where he'll be likely to make a mistake.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

3. C-Betting Turn B after Flop A: K 2 9 2

This card isn't so great for barreling. You should probably bet again with flush draws, but most of your bluffing hands have not picked up fold equity or pot equity. You're mostly looking to get a hand like second pair to fold.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

4. C-Betting Flop B: Q 8 4

There are a lot of gutshots with backdoor flush draws on this board. Hands like AK, AJ and KJ with a backdoor flush draw are also great for continuation betting because you'll pick up equity on the turn so often. Be careful continuation betting a flop this dry without chances to pick up equity on the turn because you're going to need to get a lot of good barrel spots to push the tagg off of dumb hands like TT that he thinks he can just call with because you are continuation betting this type of Qxx board often.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

5. C-Betting Turn A after Flop B: Q 8 4 A

You should be barreling the dog shit out of this turn. Your turn c-betting range should include hands like KJ of hearts, JT of clubs, T9 of spades and so on. You have a lot of fold equity with this turn card, and you should bet if you have much pot equity at all.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

6. C-Betting Turn B after Flop B: Q 8 4 2

Again, this turn card doesn't give us much fold equity. However, it does give a lot of our hands pot equity. Hands with two spades like AK, AJ, KJ, JT, J9, T9, 97 (if it's in your pre-flop range) should be barreling this turn always with little to no exception against a tagg player. I would also not be opposed to always barreling with AK and AJ here regardless of the suit. The reason is that you have decent pot equity against single pair hands, and you have decent fold equity because you hold blockers against a lot of his top pair hands.

My $0.02.

0. What is your pre-flop range?

With a Tight BTN and SB I would be opening:

{22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54 s,43s,ATo+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o}

Without reads on BTN, my CO open range is:

{22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,ATo+,K9o+, Q9o+,J9o+,T9o}

I would expect BB to be calling here with

{JJ-99,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s}; I don’t expect 66-88 as my range is too wide to set-mine. I also think he’d be 3Betting Axs.

Villain is not playing Fit-or-Fold OTF, so he will be continuing with draws, and floating when IP

1. C-Betting Flop A: K 2 9

This flop hits my perceived range, and has FD possibilities, so I’d cBet 100% of my opening range.

I’d expect Villain to x-raise any made hands here vs. FD, so his continuing range would be {JJ-TT,T9s,98s,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,8d7d}?

2. C-Betting Turn A after Flop A: K 2 9 A

The A is a good scare card to barrel here – it hits my perceived range, adds some equity to any XcXc hands and devalues his draws.

cBet entire range

3. C-Betting Turn B after Flop A: K 2 9 2

This card doesn’t help Villain, but isn’t a “scare”, although it does pair the board.

I’d be cBetting any made hands and anything that may have picked up some extra equity

{22+,AKs,A9s,A2s,K9s+,Q9s,J9s,T9s,97s+,AKo,K9o+,Q9 o,J9o,T9o}

4. C-Betting Flop B: Q 8 4

Dry flop that hits my perceived range.

cBet entire range.

I dunno what to make of Villain’s calling range here. He could easily call with hands that have paired the board and PPs, as my stats make me unlikely to barrel the turn, and he has some SD value, so {JJ-99,KQs,QTs+,98s,87s}?

5. C-Betting Turn A after Flop B: Q 8 4 A

The A is a good scare card to barrel here – it hits my perceived range, adds some equity to any XcXc hands. He may have picked up some FD equity, but will have poor odds to call

However, he has called the flop which indicates some kind of strength, and so I have less FE (?)

cBet entire value range (Sets, 2Pairs, TPs) and Junk, check behind hands w/ SD value (Mid-, Weak-Pairs)?

6. C-Betting Turn B after Flop B: Q 8 4 2

Doesn’t help Villain, but again he has indicated some strength, and isn’t stationy.

cBet entire value range (Sets, Overpairs, TPs) and anything that has picked up a FD, check behind hands w/ SD value (Mid-, Weak-Pairs)?

DoubleJ, I'm concerned with how you approach c-betting. If there's a card Queen or higher, then you just c-bet your entire range pretty much just because you feel like it. It would probably be better to look at your opponent's range at some point to figure out about how often you expect him to fold and what types of hands you expect him to call with. This will give you a better idea about if your bluffs are even profitable, and it also can help to show you which hands you should be value betting.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

It would probably be better to look at your opponent's range at some point to figure out about how often you expect him to fold and what types of hands you expect him to call with.

first off, thanks for putting this together, and for taking the time to correct my moranic tendencies.

i did have a go at Villain's calling ranges for preflop and then the 2 example flops in my post - do you wanna comment on those first and then i'll have a go at the next bit?

or are they just too horrible?

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

first off, thanks for putting this together, and for taking the time to correct my moranic tendencies.

i did have a go at Villain's calling ranges for preflop and then the 2 example flops in my post - do you wanna comment on those first and then i'll have a go at the next bit?

or are they just too horrible?

No problem. The ranges you suggested seem reasonable. What I'm talking about though is how you didn't mention using them in your thought process for deciding which hands to [semi-]bluff with and which hands to value bet. By using his ranges, you can estimate how often he'll fold to bluffs, for example, or how strong your hand will have to be to value bet profitably.

For example, you recommended continuation betting with 88 on the first flop. What is the idea behind this bet? Are you getting better hands to fold? Worse hands to call? If so (to either question), then which hands?

The idea here is to try to get deeper into why you're making these types of routine decisions. Because you make these decisions so often, even correcting a small mistake will payout big dividends over time because you'll be avoiding the mistake over and over again.

If you don't know how to break down his range hand-by-hand and count the combinations, etc., to estimate how often he'll be folding and things like that, then let me know and I'll point you in the right direction. (See: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...tc-161721.html)

Edit: Geez can we tell who I made this example for yet? Hah.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

The ranges you suggested seem reasonable.

That's encouraging. Thx

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

The idea here is to try to get deeper into why you're making these types of routine decisions.

Because you make these decisions so often, even correcting a small mistake will payout big dividends over time because you'll be avoiding the mistake over and over again.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

By using his ranges, you can estimate how often he'll fold to bluffs, for example, or how strong your hand will have to be to value bet profitably.

cushdie

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If you don't know how to break down his range hand-by-hand and count the combinations, etc., to estimate how often he'll be folding and things like that, then let me know...

I think I'm OK with the counting, it's the application of the results that I'm not confident with.

Assuming for sake of argument that Villain's PF calling range is {JJ-99,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s}, that's 54 poss. combos total (ignoring any impact that my hand may have).

On Flop A, that reduces to 46 combos.

I think he's xRaising Sets (3 combos) and TP (9 combos) and calls with {JJ-TT,T9s,98s,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,8d7d} or 22 combos.

So he's folding 12 combos or 26% of the time.

We need him to fold > 41% of the time for bluffs to be +EV, so we should only be cBetting this board for value with hands that do well vs. his calling range.

Any good?

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

So he's folding 12 combos or 26% of the time.

We need him to fold > 41% of the time for bluffs to be +EV, so we should only be cBetting this board for value with hands that do well vs. his calling range.

Without going into a debate about which hands we would expect him to play different ways pre-flop (a discussion I'm not interested in having, especially in this thread), everything but this part is good. You seem to be jumping to a conclusion based on a rule you've picked up somewhere without knowing why to/how to use the rule or how it works.

You need him to fold > 41% of the time for pure bluffs with no equity to be +EV. That doesn't include any of your semi-bluffing hands, and it doesn't take into account the hands he might call with on the flop but fold on the turn for whatever reason.

Good work though. I'm glad you're taking this seriously.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You seem to be jumping to a conclusion based on a rule you've picked up somewhere without knowing why to/how to use the rule or how it works.

pretty much sums up my poker experience to-date

OK, question: how does the above tie in with Villain's Fold-to-cBet %? I know that this stat is an average of his tendencies over every spot he's played, but it seems a bit redundant if we are going to examine each flop in this kind of detail each time.

or am i missing something (again)?

Moving on...

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You need him to fold > 41% of the time for pure bluffs with no equity to be +EV. That doesn't include any of your semi-bluffing hands...

Understood.

So for semi-bluffs, are we talking about Fold Equity here (i.e. another rule I've picked up somewhere without knowing why to/how to use, or how it works)?

AFAIK, our Total Equity = (our Current Pot Equity) + ((Chance Villain will fold) * (Villains's Pot Equity)).

If we use 8 8 for my hand in the above example, i have 23% Pot Equity vs. {JJ-TT,T9s,98s,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,8d7d} on Flop A, Villain has 77%.

If we expect him to fold ~23% of the time (i have adjusted for impact of blockers on his range this time) we have ~18% Fold Equity, and therefore ~41% Total Equity, which is 0EV.

Is this right?

Even so, we aren't getting any better hands to fold and we only have ~14% vs his calling range.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'm glad you're taking this seriously.

i hope that this was never in doubt. enjoying this...

Your opponent's fold to cbet can give you an idea of how he behaves in general when responding to cbets. You're right to note that it's an average, and it can't be applied literally to every single flop in every single situation. Also note that something like a 10/5 is going to fold to cbet less than something like a 20/15 on average because they will have better hands to see the flop with, so you have to take their fold to cbet in context with their pre-flop ranges.

In general, a tagg with a fold to c-bet of more than 75% means that they're usually just going to be continuing with good pairs and draws, and they're so tight that you can just pick them apart with bluffs. Something in the range of 55%-65% usually means they are going to be either raising you on a bluff sometimes or floating sometimes, but not enough to make your life too difficult. Around 45-50% means they are doing it enough to put you to difficult decisions (ie: they are playing fairly balanced), and less than about 40-45% means that they are probably trying to be too fancy on the flop so they end up spewing

Fold equity just means the value you get from having your opponent fold, and pot equity is the value you get from your hand's showdown strength. Long story short, the more outs you have against his likely range, the better your pot equity. I'm not sure about that equation you listed there, but it looks like it would have something to do with an all-in semi-bluff.

Once you get a feel for this stuff, you can start to look at how your c-betting range looks on these flops to see if you're exploitable with bluff raises on the flop. It's not so much that you care if you're exploitable against opponents who will not adjust, but it will help to prepare you to deal with players who play in different ways (ie: raising flop c-bets a lot).

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'm not sure about that equation you listed there, but it looks like it would have something to do with an all-in semi-bluff.

i got it from here: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy...s/equity/fold/

is it bogus, or am i just not understanding it?

btw - pretty stoked at having my own private thread here

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

i got it from here: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy...s/equity/fold/

is it bogus, or am i just not understanding it?

btw - pretty stoked at having my own private thread here

Using those "equations" to illustrate what's going on conceptually seems fine. However, how the guy starts doing math-like things with them to try to determine what your total equity is in a hand is like the poker equivalent of bro science. It doesn't take into account future bets, like your shove or your opponent's call on an AI semi-bluff, for example. It looks like it's confusing equity for EV or some kind of halfway in between idea.

Just estimating the EV of a semi-bluff is probably easier and more useful.

OK, so concept = sound, cobra-mathic formula = not so much.

thx

going back to the calc for pure bluffs to be +EV - can we recap this, plizz, as i'm trying to understand why to/how to use the rule and how it works, but just thinking myself round in circles.

Firstly, what are the arguments for the formula?

My first assumption was that we are using Pot_Size (given) and expected_Fold_% (from combo counting) to correctly size a pure bluff bet.

But then it occurs that we could also be using it to test whether a Bet_Size (planned) into Pot_Size (given) compares favourably to Expected_Fold_% in order to decide whether to bet or not.

or are they interchangeable?

Secondly, is Expected_Fold_% a constant? Doesn't Bet_Size have some impact on how likely Villain is to fold?

Let's say we're playing 10nl w/o rake and we open raise to $0.30 from the button. The SB calls and the BB folds. So the flop comes, the flop pot is $0.70, and the SB checks to us. At this point, we could consider making a bet of $0.50.

bet/(bet+pot) = 0.5/(0.5+0.7) = 0.5/1.2 = 0.4167

If our opponent folds more than 41.67% of the time, then our bluff is +EV. This assumes that we have absolutely no equity if we are called, we always check/fold if we see a turn, and we always fold if our flop bet is raised.

Generally speaking, your opponent's folding percentage will change based on how much you bet. It's clear to see that betting $0.10 in the above scenario will get a much different response than betting $4. How a player's folding percentage changes when facing different bet sizes is called the elasticity of their range. For example, there are situations where a bet of 2/3 the pot will get a similar fold frequency as a bet that is pot-sized, especially if the opponent's range is weak on a given board.

Eccellente. Grazie mille

FWIW - the process of trying to verbalize that question was really useful

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Let's say we're playing 10nl w/o rake...

I wish...