fr utg range question

So I normally open something like:

77+, AQs, AK. 68 combos.

If I'm 3b, villain dependent of course, I prob continue with:

TT+, AK. 42 combos.

So basically 77-99 and AQs get folded.

So am I better off scrapping say the low pps and replacing them with say AXs?

If so, what table dynamics would make one range preferable to the other?

Or... does this not really matter.

The thinking is, quite often people fold to utg opens, so there should be some bluffs in there. Maybe even keep the pps and just add a couple of AXs as well?

Originally Posted by rong

The thinking is, quite often people fold to utg opens, so there should be some bluffs in there.

Facing five people, your fold equity isn't going to be there enough to matter.


[12:03] <spoonitnow> hey rong
[12:03] <spoonitnow> want to show you something
[12:03] * spoonitnow slaps rong with a big red brick
[12:03] <spoonitnow> suppose you're facing five people who all fold 90%
[12:03] <spoonitnow> they all fold 59% of the time
[12:04] <spoonitnow> if you're betting 3bb to win 1.5bb
[12:04] <spoonitnow> you need them to fold 66.7%
[12:04] <spoonitnow> so even against a bunch of super nits, you aren't profitable with a pure bluff

This is a good point.

Also a good point is that it is impossible to make a "pure bluff" PRE. It is not possible to be "drawing dead" at this point in the hand.

If you have 72o vs. AA, you've still got 11.8% equity.

Against a 10% range of { 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo }, 72o has 24.5% equity.

Now, given 5 Villains who fold 90% pre and no other information,
if you bet 3bb w/ 72o:

0 callers: 59% ; pot: 1.5bb ; equity 100% ; EV 0.89bb
1 caller : 33% ; pot 4.5bb ; equity 24.5% ; EV -0.38bb
2 callers: 7.3% ; pot 7.5bb ; equity 16.5% ; EV -0.092bb
3 callers: 0.81% ; pot 10.5bb ; equity 13.0% ; EV -0.010bb
4 callers: 0.045% ; pot 13.5bb ; equity 11.1% ; EV -.00053bb
5 callers: 0.0010% ; pot 16.5bb ; equity 9.9% ; EV -.000011bb


Total EV: 0.40bb

So, if these hypothetical Villains all play the exact same 10% range (the one I gave above), and Hero bluffs w/ 72o from UTG, and Hero plays well enough to realize at least as much equity (by outplaying these nits post) as his hot-and-cold equity, then it is quite clear that Hero can bluff with ATC and win major monies.

Spoiler: Show

First column, likelihood of n callers

x = 90%^(5-n) * 10%^n * (5,n)

where n = { 0,1,2,3,4,5 }, and x is the likelihood of n callers.
Also, x is used in the EV calc.

the notation (5,n) means "5 choose n" or "n combinations from a set of 5"

EV column
EV = x * ( equity*pot - (1 - equity)*3bb )

Dan, I'm a massive fucking lagtard but this seems like a super nitty opening range for 6max. What's your vpip/pfr overall?

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

This is a good point.

Also a good point is that it is impossible to make a "pure bluff" PRE. It is not possible to be "drawing dead" at this point in the hand.

If you have 72o vs. AA, you've still got 11.8% equity.

Against a 10% range of { 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo }, 72o has 24.5% equity.

Now, given 5 Villains who fold 90% pre and no other information,
if you bet 3bb w/ 72o:

0 callers: 59% ; pot: 1.5bb ; equity 100% ; EV 0.89bb
1 caller : 33% ; pot 4.5bb ; equity 24.5% ; EV -0.38bb
2 callers: 7.3% ; pot 7.5bb ; equity 16.5% ; EV -0.092bb
3 callers: 0.81% ; pot 10.5bb ; equity 13.0% ; EV -0.010bb
4 callers: 0.045% ; pot 13.5bb ; equity 11.1% ; EV -.00053bb
5 callers: 0.0010% ; pot 16.5bb ; equity 9.9% ; EV -.000011bb


Total EV: 0.40bb

So, if these hypothetical Villains all play the exact same 10% range (the one I gave above), and Hero bluffs w/ 72o from UTG, and Hero plays well enough to realize at least as much equity (by outplaying these nits post) as his hot-and-cold equity, then it is quite clear that Hero can bluff with ATC and win major monies.

Spoiler: Show

First column, likelihood of n callers

x = 90%^(5-n) * 10%^n * (5,n)

where n = { 0,1,2,3,4,5 }, and x is the likelihood of n callers.
Also, x is used in the EV calc.

the notation (5,n) means "5 choose n" or "n combinations from a set of 5"

EV column
EV = x * ( equity*pot - (1 - equity)*3bb )

No. It doesn't work like that.

Originally Posted by rong

So I normally open something like:

77+, AQs, AK. 68 combos.

If I'm 3b, villain dependent of course, I prob continue with:

TT+, AK. 42 combos.

So basically 77-99 and AQs get folded.

So am I better off scrapping say the low pps and replacing them with say AXs?

If so, what table dynamics would make one range preferable to the other?

Or... does this not really matter.

i think ur thinking about this all wrong, rong. getting 3bet isn't the issue.

The further u are from the BTN, the less steal equity you have, and so it becomes more difficult to show a profit by playing hands that rely on stealing. Therefore (paraphrasing Ed Miller):

• Avoid playing speculative hands unless you expect to have significant Steal Equity (E.g. fold speculative hands like SCs, Suited Aces if there are tough/aggro players likely to enter the pot w/ position on you).
• If you have low Steal Equity, then you must have high Showdown Equity in order to play. If you don’t, then fold.

Bottom line - unless ur good at stealing OOP, focus on high Showdown Equity hands

Originally Posted by supa

Dan, I'm a massive fucking lagtard but this seems like a super nitty opening range for 6max. What's your vpip/pfr overall?

these are FR stats afaik.

Title should read fr not ft.

And yeah as a pure bluff it doesn't work from utg. But I guess I'm thinking wtf 77 might get paid off less than TJs and realising I've never actually thought about why I open a particular range from utg. I mean a lot of pots are taken on the flop with a cb anyway as our perceived range is very strong. So my point is, why is 77 better than TJs?

Originally Posted by rong

And yeah as a pure bluff it doesn't work from utg. But I guess I'm thinking wtf 77 might get paid off less than TJs and realising I've never actually thought about why I open a particular range from utg. I mean a lot of pots are taken on the flop with a cb anyway as our perceived range is very strong. So my point is, why is 77 better than TJs?

It's not.