FH facing huge overbet shove on the river..deep..

Gah!


What the hell is this lol.

Ok from my previous experience with this player, he is a terrible player in general but I feel there is no way on earth he can possibly shove anything other than a pair of 33's or 9,7 in this spot.

He doesn't raise a ton, however he's played like nearly 40% of hands..limp/calls a ton preflop etc..

This might sound very contradictory to what I said about him being a bad player, but I was thinking if he actually does think I have a nine here then he's likely to jam if he has those two combos of hands that has us crushed as I can't see anything else doing this

Or the other alternative is that he is that bad where he isn't thinking of my hand and just jams 9,x in this spot..

What are you thoughts?

Can you find a fold? Is it an easy fold/easy call or what..



PokerStars Hand #85233511030: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2012/08/25 22:57:35 WET [2012/08/25 17:57:35 ET]
Table 'Enterprise' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ramdeebam ($25 in chips)
Seat 2: perel01 ($24.08 in chips)
Seat 3: nyp800 ($15.81 in chips)
Seat 4: Gadget901 ($10 in chips)
Seat 5: owneditself ($16.45 in chips)
Seat 6: toonfan_IAN ($21.93 in chips)
nyp800: posts small blind $0.05
Gadget901: posts big blind $0.10
ramdeebam: posts the ante $0.02
perel01: posts the ante $0.02
nyp800: posts the ante $0.02
Gadget901: posts the ante $0.02
owneditself: posts the ante $0.02
toonfan_IAN: posts the ante $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ramdeebam [9d Td]
owneditself: folds
toonfan_IAN: raises $0.30 to $0.40
ramdeebam: calls $0.40
perel01: folds
nyp800: calls $0.35
Gadget901: folds
*** FLOP *** [3c 9s 3d]
nyp800: checks
toonfan_IAN: bets $0.80
ramdeebam: calls $0.80
nyp800: folds
*** TURN *** [3c 9s 3d] [7s]
toonfan_IAN: bets $0.80
ramdeebam: calls $0.80
*** RIVER *** [3c 9s 3d 7s] [9c]
toonfan_IAN: bets $19.91 and is all-in
ramdeebam: ??



PS: I can't convert the hand..due to lack of posts.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($24.08)
SB ($15.81)
BB ($10)
UTG ($16.45)
MP ($21.93)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 10
1 fold, MP bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.42) 3, 9, 3 (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80, 1 fold

Turn: ($3.02) 7 (2 players)
MP bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

River: ($4.62) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $19.91 (All-In)

Thanks pascal.

Thoughts?

I'm really fn tired so maybe I'm not reading this right but he can shove 3X (like A3, K3 etc) and can shove 77 and 9X.

He also raised pre which means that over cards are a possibility. You should post some stats of his if you have it. If he's playing 35/8 then he doesnt have a 7 or 3 in his range unless its exactly 33 or 77. He prob doesnt have 97 if hes raising pre.

Call and be happy.
Oh and fold pre imo. If he's a station, you have no fold equity against him so you basically need to hit a monster to win. If you call with this hand, hit a FH and still hate life you need to ditch this.

i wouldn't even think about it id just fold

its an easy fold if the worst he ever has is 9x but for some reason i doubt that to be the case. i don't expect described villain to be raising 97 or 33 preflop. can he be spazzing like AK? or "i dont know what to do with AA i cant fold" type crazzy actions?
prolly a fold; overbets are so very rarely bluffs at the micros esp when they come from a loose passive.

I'm almost sure he was like 40/11 or something. Love to limp/call tons, didn't raise much though..

Over pairs are possible, I'm just finding it difficult to understand why/how he can comfortable shove with Aces/Kings and turning his hand into a bluff for 200bb makes no sense. The only shoving hands here that make sense is 33..or 9,7 (but we can eliminate because he raised right?)

Shoving 77 makes no sense, as again he's turning his hand in to a bluff..so I can only think 33 is happy shoving in this spot if he puts me a piece of the board and that being a nine.

Originally Posted by Vinland

Oh and fold pre imo.

Over 200bb deep IP against a suspected bad player with T9s?

Don't fold pre please.

There's no way a 40% PFR limper opened in MP with a 3 in their range. They don't open weak suited aces, and low SC's or PP's, they limp-call... unless you have a read otherwise or there is some dynamic at play here.

There are no draws to play on this board, so Hero clearly has either a 9x or 3x hand, and is basically face up. There's no need to call a 4x overbet on any street with anything less than the nuts.

I hope Villain is bluffing and is now confident that he/she can bluff me off of pots with huge all-in river shoves. Sooner or later, I'll win that bet.

I'm pretty happy calling here. In no reality does a loose passive open 4x with 97 here. They also love l/c'ing with 77 and 33. This looks like an overpair spaz to me (not atypical at $10NL), unless his preflop passiveness has been exaggerated.

Also to 2nd above... you want to be in this hand.

Originally Posted by Stacks

Over 200bb deep IP against a suspected bad player with T9s?

Don't fold pre please.

^ Lol def this ^

Maybe I am well over thinking this but, the way I see it he can't get any "value" out of any hand, other than exactly a 9,x hand. I feel that he knows I can only call any sort of bet on the river if I hold a 9x combo hand.

So, if we take that in to account, the sizing of the bet is irrelevant. I simply can't call ANY bet with anything other than a 9x combo hand. So, if he min bets/half bets, pot bets, over bets the river, all results are the same if I have 9x in general, I call if I don't I fold, even if the bet size is 50c or $20.00.

By over betting he's just basically getting the maximum value out of any 9x hand for the very few times I do, or am I well thinking far to much in to it?


OFC there are times he jams over pairs like AA/KK but I think those times are very very very few when you look at the board, only a complete idiot would jam here with AA/KK and expect to be looked up by absolutely nothing.

Your range should be wider than 9x on the river; can you never have tens, how about 8s, yes yr range looks a lot like a 9 and bluffing you makes very little sense, so fucking fold! But If he bet 80c again I would be raising the fuck out of this hoping he can't fold his 10s+.

Originally Posted by Stacks

Over 200bb deep IP against a suspected bad player with T9s?

Don't fold pre please.

What if bb is squeeze happy? 3bet iso or fold?

I'm calling this river shove. We need him to be spewing around the same frequency that he has us beat, ie not very often. I think we can call this comfortably, villains at this level are more than capable of spewing.

you are calling $19 to win $1 if your chopping. if your ever behind your fucked.

lemme emphasis here incase it wasn't clear.

NINETEEN USD TO WIN FUCKING $1

$19 to win... $19 if he's spewing. Is he ahead more often than he's spewing? That seems like our break-even marker to me. I get we're chopping a lot of the time, but are we ahead more often than we're behind? Fuck the chop, after rake that's like break even.

I would fold this

I told you I was fn tired. Yeah when you are this deep I call preflop too. Didnt know you were 200+ deep.

So let me get this... call pre because villain is lolbad and we're 200bb deep, then fold the virtual nuts when villain shoves 200bb deep.

How is this good poker please?

Seen him shove like this before? Im folding without a great read.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

So let me get this... call pre because villain is lolbad and we're 200bb deep, then fold the virtual nuts when villain shoves 200bb deep.

How is this good poker please?

I haven't played a hand in well over a year but I cannot fathom taking a line that isn't call preflop/fold river. And TBH, overall I'm really tight preflop and really call happy postflop.

I dont think pre is particularly bad if we know villain is bad - and as long as no regular squeezers in the blinds allowing you to play poker with position against what you are describing as a 'fishy' player.

Given that you have very little invested here so the fold is IMO trivial - had you got a lot invested and small stack/pot size then much harder to fold - but not here.

Also, you cant win the BBJ with this hand so fold as well

I'm just struggling to understand where our implied odds are coming from. We're calling pre because we're both deep and he's bad, and then we're folding river because we haven't got the nuts. So what, we need the nuts to play this hand? How often do we make the nuts here? And then how often does he stack off when we do? Is that enough to play this hand pre, or do we need to catch him sometimes when we have 2nd nuts?

How often does villain have 97 or 33 here? More often than he has AK AA KK QQ JJ and anything else he can spew with? This is where I'm confused as to why we're folding. Villain needs like 5 combos of spew for us to break even. Didn't we call pre flop because he sucks? Is this really never spew?

Originally Posted by OngBonga

So let me get this... call pre because villain is lolbad and we're 200bb deep, then fold the virtual nuts when villain shoves 200bb deep.

How is this good poker please?

The fact that we're bad and we're IP makes preflop more of a call the deeper we get because we will be dominating in spots where chips go all in whereas we will infrequently be giving away our entire stack.

This is a good example to where villain is turning his hand faceup in an attempt to get our whole stack, so if anything folding here is an example of how calling pre is good.

BTW, my biggest leak over my millions of hands of poker has been splashing away money, so I can attest to the fact over a sample that is much bigger than it rightfully should be that a 10x overshove from a passive fish is the fucking nuts. I honestly can't think of an example of a hand to where this thought process was wrong.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm just struggling to understand where our implied odds are coming from. We're calling pre because we're both deep and he's bad, and then we're folding river because we haven't got the nuts. So what, we need the nuts to play this hand? How often do we make the nuts here? And then how often does he stack off when we do? Is that enough to play this hand pre, or do we need to catch him sometimes when we have 2nd nuts?

Originally Posted by surviva316

A lot of mention of implied odds and how much we're calling in comparison to how deep stacks are. I think it's fair to mention that stack sizes getting deeper and deeper doesn't just make our implied odds good with a hand that rarely makes the nuts (even in position). As the spr balloons (close to 30:1 in the example you gave where you would flat pre) the prospect of maybe getting a 5-high flush becomes much less of an easy implied odds spot.

From another thread where we discuss calling SCs IP.

The rest of that post gets into the logic of calling with this type of hand against bad players IP as we get deeper, but the specific wording gets less directly relevant to this spot, so I'll leave it at that.

Why does it matter if we're 200bb deep if we're folding a monster when he makes a stupid overbet shove? That's where I'm lost.

If the bottom of villain's range here is 9x, then yeah I obviously see why we're folding. But I've done this with AK twice recently, stupid fucking shove thinking I can push villain off his hand. And I'm still beating 25nl, despite my tendancy to spew now and then. This is a losing 10nl player, at least I assume he is with these stats. That's why I think this isn't the fucking nuts only. Oh, and this...

He doesn't raise a ton, however he's played like nearly 40% of hands..limp/calls a ton preflop etc..

How often does he have 33 and 97? 33 like never, that's standard l/c territory for a limp donkey. And 97 is a stretch.

Sorry if I'm taking a lot of convincing here, this just doesn't make any sense to me and as such I'm looking him up, expecting spew a lot more often than better. Maybe when I have more experience like those of you advocating a fold I'll realise it's a bad call, I guess sometimes you have to learn the hard way.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Why does it matter if we're 200bb deep if we're folding a monster when he makes a stupid overbet shove? That's where I'm lost.

The idea is that those 200bb's are only getting in when we're well ahead of villain's range. It's not so much that we have a hand that makes a flush sometimes and a straight sometimes and there's a lot of money that we might get paid in those instances; it's just that we're going to outplay him in general (this particular player is going to let us get to showdown for cheap when we have a good hand vs a better but non-nut hand, he's going to turn his hand faceup a lot when he has a monster vs a good hand because he never bluffs, and he's going to let us bloat the pot when he has a marginal holding vs a found great hand for us).

Originally Posted by OngBonga

If the bottom of villain's range here is 9x, then yeah I obviously see why we're folding. But I've done this with AK twice recently, stupid fucking shove thinking I can push villain off his hand. And I'm still beating 25nl, despite my tendancy to spew now and then. This is a losing 10nl player, at least I assume he is with these stats. That's why I think this isn't the fucking nuts only.

You're leak (fwiw, mine too) is that you spew--over-playing some hands and thinking too many levels ahead of villain and trying to make sick plays. His leak is that he plays too passively and too face-up and too first level.

It's a fallacy to say:

Premise: Ongie would make x mistake.
Premise: This player's even worse than Ongie.
CONCLUSION: He's going to make x mistake.

You both have flaws in your game, but they are different flaws.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Oh, and this...



How often does he have 33 and 97? 33 like never, that's standard l/c territory for a limp donkey. And 97 is a stretch.

These are obviously good combinatric points.

To quote good old Sherlock Holmes, though: "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." I hate to quote literature in a HH analysis, but there's an undeniable logical to this point that makes it applicable. Sure, limp/callers don't usually open 33, but I certainly see them open 33 more often than I see them 10x overbet shove a river that improved top pair to a full house hand with AK.

This is kind of where m2m's coming from when he says that you should fold without thinking. The more you think "OMG, I can't fold to 3 unlikely combos, can I?" the more you talk yourself into making what is kind of an obvious fold from a level-0 thinking perspective lol.

You are certainly very good at explaining the flaws in my thinking.

It's a fallacy to say:

Premise: Ongie would make x mistake.
Premise: This player's even worse than Ongie.
CONCLUSION: He's going to make x mistake.

I get that I'm better than this guy because I'm not loose/passive, I try to be tight/aggressive. So my spew is going to be badly timed aggessive spew, like, idunno, shoving AK no redraw into a mono J-high flop and seeing villain snap a flush, or trying to push villain off a hand like 99, only for him to call 99. This guy is gonna spew mostly calling draws that he shouldn't, chasing down 3rd pair, overvaluing top pair and overpairs, not putting people on ranges etc. Oh, and overbetting the nuts, thus losing tons of value.

I'm not incapable of making these big folds, I just need to be convinced villain has the goods often enough to mean calling is burning money. In this instance I'm taking quite some convinving, but I don't doubt that I'm wrong on this, simply because of the standard of those saying this is a fold... you, m2m, bikes. At the table I'm calling and probably posting this hand for opinions lol. But you are starting to convince me that calling sucks.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm just struggling to understand where our implied odds are coming from. We're calling pre because we're both deep and he's bad, and then we're folding river because we haven't got the nuts. So what, we need the nuts to play this hand? How often do we make the nuts here? And then how often does he stack off when we do? Is that enough to play this hand pre, or do we need to catch him sometimes when we have 2nd nuts?

How often does villain have 97 or 33 here? More often than he has AK AA KK QQ JJ and anything else he can spew with? This is where I'm confused as to why we're folding. Villain needs like 5 combos of spew for us to break even. Didn't we call pre flop because he sucks? Is this really never spew?

How don't you understand that we are risking 19$ to win like 90cents? You also make it sound like this one decision has a HUGE bearing on the total eV of our call pre w/ T9. This river decision has absolutely no effect on our eV when we call pre. We don't need the nuts to play this hand. Villain can actually show up with pretty much only 9x+ in this spot.

Sometimes versus a villain we'll be happy to call an overbet shove with second pair(Yes probably as rare as this spot). Just because we can't call it with a boat here doesn't mean we are losing money with our call pre. Saying we need like the 2nd nuts or better to make money versus someone is absolutely ludicrous. I mean I don't even understand why I have to explain this to someone who plays 25NL.

How don't you understand that we are risking 19$ to win like 90cents?

Simply because when I made the statement, I was giving villain enough spew to make up for the times he has better. If villain's range is 9x+ only here, then I totally get that we're risking $19 to win 90c, in fact we lose that to rake so we're lucky if we break even when we chop.

The rest of what you say is bang on the money. I don't know why I need it explaining to me tbh, I just got it in my head that if we're folding this then calling pre was a mistake, but it's clear I'm wrong on that.

I don't really get how it's a fold or how his range is only 9x? I totally have made this same stupid shove with like AA here back in the day. This guy is not open raising 33 or 97. 33 is the MAYBE and that's 1 combo. Snap call imo without even thinking twice. I believe dude is totally spew shoving overpairs here. He's not showing up with a 97 or 33 often enough to make this a fold. I mean seriously how do you guys truly believe that 97 is actually in his range or hes like never overbet jamming with an overpair? I'm also a fish, but I think a fold is way too fucking nitty. Yeah if we expected to see 9x only, but no way man. He's going to have overpairs here too just like spewing, maybe not AK so much, but totally like TT+ or JJ+. I honestly don't even expect to chop this pot like ever and would totally call. Yes he overbet shoves, but nothing on that board makes sense in relation to his range. I think you guys are giving his passivity too much weight; cause it's like he won't do a huge riverbet shove without the nuts you guys think...But the nuts are hardly part of his range at all. He's just not opening 33/9x often enough for us to ever fold. We hit gin on the river. Like we lose to 97 and 33. Again hardly in his range...MORE OVERPAIRS than anything just spewing money.

He more than likely has an over pair, didn't like the call on the flop, weak, bet on the turn and is maybe putting you on a hand like A3 and is trying to turn his AA into a bluff.

He doesn't raise a ton, however he's played like nearly 40% of hands..limp/calls a ton preflop etc..

Srry for the dble post, but judging by that, 97 and 33 are probably in his limp/ calling range, not .40 preflop.