Concept: Implied threat

NLHE $0.5/$1 blinds, $70 effective stacks.

Kinda TAggy player who tries to play well opens from MP for $4.
Fnord calls from the button.
Blinds fold.

$8ish in the pot

Flop is:


TAggy bets $6, Fnord raises to $18.

TAggy is playing for stacks, Fnord is not. Discuss.

Assuming you've got 2 cards that the flop missed, and not holding 74o "The Rippy".

I like this move and use it from time to time with success at 25NL. I look for the tight/passive types on Poker Tracker, or an opp who I've seen lay down to a scare card or similar threat in the past.

A read on opp's frequency of c-betting helps too, since you're hoping ideally that the flop missed him. Another good situation is where he is holding AJ/AT or lower and is afraid he might be outkicked. You're representing either a strong AK, or a loosely called A7/A4 that hit two pair on the flop, or even a non-slowplayed set.

The one downside that I see to this line is that it is expensive. You're betting $18 to win $14, so it needs to work (opp fold) a little more than half the time to break even, unless he calls and you catch something on the turn and can proceed to take down a big pot.

Originally Posted by cobere

The one downside that I see to this line is that it is expensive. You're betting $18 to win $14, so it needs to work (opp fold) a little more than half the time to break even, unless he calls and you catch something on the turn and can proceed to take down a big pot.

Lol, you guys are great. Immediatly putting Fnord on air!

Fnord is certainly capable of having AK/AJs+/77/44/74o here.

Looks like my semibluff line into wimpy players when drawing to a made hand. Also looks like you misgauged his aggressive qualities if he reraised you. I can do this to certain players and get a free card regardless of what they hold. It's like I pop them into slowplay mode if their hand is strong, then I check behind the turn most days. It's troubling how often I make my hand on the river and they bet right into me.

You know someone is a little tough to handle when they consistently 3 bet you back, and overbet turns when you smooth call flops on the draw.

For what it's worth, this hand is fictional, but very important and I think the vast majority of NL100 players don't get it.

Everyone is putting me on a draw/air, yet more often than not Ax is just calling the c-bet.

Can't wait to hear your take.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Can't wait to hear your take

Put people to ranges.

Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet?

Originally Posted by Rondavu

It's like I pop them into slowplay mode if their hand is strong, then I check behind the turn most days. It's troubling how often I make my hand on the river and they bet right into me.

Great point!

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Can't wait to hear your take

Put people to ranges.

Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet?

When a smart player has a strong underpair like KK QQ, and you hold AK?

Good possibility that Kinda TAggy is holding TPTK/GK, but maybe not, though regardless you're repping TPTK at minimum, 2-pair or a set here. The implied threat is that you're ready to play for stacks. Decision time for Kinda TAggy. He's either folding or, if he's playing for stacks, reraising. Does Fnord fold to a reraise?

Originally Posted by Warpe

Good possibility that Kinda TAggy is holding TPTK/GK

Put him to a range.

Originally Posted by Warpe

Does Fnord fold to a reraise?

Fnord is certainly capable of this.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Originally Posted by Fnord

Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet?

When a smart player has a strong underpair like KK QQ, and you hold AK?

How often does the player described with KK/QQ/JJ bet the turn unimproved in your observation? If a call is correct against this opponent with AKo, what other hands should call here for balance?

The impression of the player you're giving is someone not so creative as much as careful. Given that, after his stack show, my range for this player is AA, AQ or AK. I can't see a boring green tagg showing a wider range. He's aiming to please. Respect is a read.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Given that, after his stack show, my range for this player is AA, AQ or AK.

AJ+/KQ/ATs+/TT+ other stuff like 5-10% of the time.

The flop bet says he still has 2 cards and doesn't think I have an Ace. Agree, Disagree?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Originally Posted by Fnord

Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet?

When a smart player has a strong underpair like KK QQ, and you hold AK?

How often does the player described with KK/QQ/JJ bet the turn unimproved in your observation? If a call is correct against this opponent with AKo, what other hands should call here for balance?

Never really considered it to be honest. When I think about smooth calling that flop holding an ace, I think about someone putting too much action on me if I raise, even though I feel I'm probably ahead, and he's not drawing. I mean when the player is overaggressive on a wide range and capable of pushing KK stacks into your AJ if you instigate, but likely to keep it affordable if you don't. Pot control.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

I mean when the player is overaggressive and capable of pushing KK stacks into your AJ if you instigate, but likely to keep it affordable if you don't. Pot control.

I agree that you must call here often against an over-aggo player who will follow through with a big turn bet often reguardless of his cards.

I think Fnord is just alluding to one of the great advantages of being in position. The player in back can put in a small raise (in relation to the stacks) that directly threatens the player in front's entire stack. Assuming the player OOP is competant, Fnord then has an incredible amount of information about the strength of villain's hand and can proceed with the hand depending on what he holds. Just as importantly, it gets money in quickly with a big hand before cards come that can beat you or kill your action. For example if Fnord holds 77, a spade is very unlikely to beat our hero since As is on the board, but it very well may kill his action. However, playing this way with air, in my experience, tends to be badly -EV. I think Fnord would agree with this. At least to an extent.

How often does the player described with KK/QQ/JJ bet the turn unimproved in your observation? If a call is correct against this opponent with AKo, what other hands should call here for balance?

Without directly answering your question, nothing pleases me more then seeing players blatantly playing their huge hands noticably different then there more marginal ones. IE raising flop draws, top pairs, weak overpairs, etc., while calling flop bets to try to play a massive pot on later streets with bigger hands.. ie sets. When I stack off with a hand like AK TPTK, it's often because I pick up on something like this. Fnord- I believe you were at the table to see a similar hand, where villain had a big draw where we got it AI on the turn.

PF I'm putting Taggy to

AJs+, TT+, KJs+, AQo+

I think you can take TAggy down to the stronger PP's and A's though as with KQ or KJ I find most Tag's wont c-bet an A with these hands.

Your raise is screaming "I have a hand get out you F*ing flush draw" which makes me honestly think you want to keep the guy in the hand. I do this against TAggys mostly because they like to make the "unbelievable" call and catch the over-aggressor playing air often enough to make a mistake for stacks with TPTK. You own him...his Pair of A's (if he calls or pushes back over you) to your set/2pair or you gain a fold and some more table image. Either way I like the move.

PK

Originally Posted by Lukie

However, playing this way with air too often, after you've just shown a lot of loose action or into loose players tends to be badly -EV.

Fixed your post. I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Given that, after his stack show, my range for this player is AA, AQ or AK.

AJ+/KQ/ATs+/TT+ other stuff like 5-10% of the time.

The flop bet says he still has 2 cards and doesn't think I have an Ace. Agree, Disagree?

If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.

YES

Originally Posted by Lukie

Without directly answering your question, nothing pleases me more then seeing players blatantly playing their huge hands noticably different then there more marginal ones. IE raising flop draws, top pairs, weak overpairs, etc., while calling flop bets to try to play a massive pot on later streets with bigger hands.. ie sets. When I stack off with a hand like AK TPTK, it's often because I pick up on something like this. Fnord- I believe you were at the table to see a similar hand, where villain had a big draw where we got it AI on the turn.

Awesome. This post rules.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.

...or just allow yourself to get caught making one or two...

Originally Posted by Rondavu

If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.

Can you clairfy?

Lets get specific, in the PS100 game am I mistaken to think that the PFR is c-betting any flop heads-up 90% of the time and Axx more often? If he checks, it might be something like TT+ but probably Ax getting tricky. Agree, Disagree?

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Originally Posted by Fnord

I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.

YES

A common mistake is that typical players will over-estimate your bluffing frequency after you've shown a lot of action or been caught bluffing. People have trouble dealing with probabilities, hate being bluffed and like to showdown pretty good hands. In NLHE these tendencies can be ruthlessly exploited.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Rondavu

If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.

Can you clairfy?

Lets get specific, in the PS100 game am I mistaken to think that the PFR is c-betting any flop heads-up 90% of the time and Axx more often? If he checks, it might be something like TT+ but probably Ax getting tricky. Agree, Disagree?

Your whole point being that raising a villains fast play into non threatening ace flops is as good a time as any to raise with any two, which potentially nets $ or builds valuable image? That's getting smarter than most 100NL players can handle IMO.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Your whole point being that raising a villains fast play into non threatening ace flops is as good a time as any to raise with any two, which potentially nets $ or builds valuable image?

Fair enough, mostly just calling you on putting our poor little TAgg on Ax here so quickly.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.

I didn't understand this. Please explain.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Lukie

However, playing this way with air too often, after you've just shown a lot of loose action or into loose players tends to be badly -EV.

Fixed your post. I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.

I agree with you Fnord...but are you often throwing air into this pot against this opponent? He may think so because he's seen you do it against other opps. I just think you are more unlikely to do it here though he may believe that air is a possibility. His perception of the play is what matters most...I still believe that you are sitting on a monster more often than not...I know I would be since I believe he's likely to want to play for stacks against you with TPGK if he thinks you're willing to play air or a weaker hand.

PK

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Lukie

However, playing this way with air too often, after you've just shown a lot of loose action or into loose players tends to be badly -EV.

Fixed your post. I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.

For metagame purposes against smart players, I agree. For example, the JJvKTo hand between ourselves may help you get paid off down the road when you actually have the monster you were repping.

In isolation however, I feel the situation you presented is -EV to be bluff raising a PFRer on an A-high flop, unless he is really weak-tight. It also seems that 'shania' and it's implications mean little to many of the softer players that comprise the low/middleish stakes games. I could be way off base here, but I do agree that the ability to play air like this, LIKE ANY AGRESSIVE line, needs to be incorporated into your game. In isolation, I just don't think the situation you presented to be a very good one. It's one, for example, you could legitimtely raise a wide range to the point where a set is likely to get paid off by an AK type hand anyway.

Originally Posted by Lukie

For metagame purposes against smart players, I agree. For example, the JJvKTo hand between ourselves may help you get paid off down the road when you actually have the monster you were repping.

I raised there because I thought you would fold and wanted to make it perfectly clear that any pot between us may hit 50-200bb with weak hands. I made a couple small misreads, but meh.

Originally Posted by Lukie

In isolation however, I feel the situation you presented is -EV to be bluff raising a PFRer on an A-high flop, unless he is really weak-tight.

I have a follow-up that addressess some of this indirectly...

For the record, I'm not trying to argue that air should never be part of your range here. I just don't think, from hero's perspective, it should comprise a significant % of your range by any stretch of the imagination. If villain wants to take that 5% (just making up a number here, think of it as X%, X being a small number) chance you have nothing and talk himself into a horrible call to play a big pot with a very marginal hand.... see where I'm going with this?

Perhaps less importantly (perhaps more), in isolation, the play is still usually a loser.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Perhaps less importantly (perhaps more), in isolation, the play is still usually a loser.

It's at worst a small mistake, otherwise Rippy would have busted out by now.

Speaking of Rippy, he would follow through on the turn quite often. But I'm getting ahead of myself now...

Originally Posted by fnord

Originally Posted by Rondavu

If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.

I didn't understand this. Please explain.

Say I'm playing against you. The more you re-raise my continuation bet into this flop with air or weak aces, the closer I come to pushing my stack forward with less than one pair of aces. This is what you ask for. It takes a while to get there against most opponents. If I were to do this against you however, I would show you less than a pair of aces to counterplay you into calling with weak aces when I have a big one in the future.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Lukie

Perhaps less importantly (perhaps more), in isolation, the play is still usually a loser.

It's at worst a small mistake, otherwise Rippy would have busted out by now.

Speaking of Rippy, he would follow through on the turn quite often. But I'm getting ahead of myself now...

It's really hard to judge without more info on villain. Is villain laggy preflop and weak post-flop, or taggy preflop and takes TP hands WAY too far post-flop?

Originally Posted by Lukie

For the record, I'm not trying to argue that air should never be part of your range here. I just don't think, from hero's perspective, it should comprise a significant % of your range by any stretch of the imagination.

In my experience you have to keep poking the dog until it barks.

Dangerous thought:

What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Dangerous thought:

What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?

Very intriguing.

I'm assuming that you would raise the c-bet with a made set as well. The odds of flopping a set or better with paired hole cards is 7.5/1, but I'll just round it down to 7 for simplicity's sake. Now, for raising the c-bet when you don't make your set, you would need to flip two coins and get heads on both. The odds are 3/1 against it. So basically you would be raising 25% of the time.

1 out of 8 trials you are raising with a made set. (12.5%)
The other 7 trials where you don't make your set:
1.75 out of 7 you are raising. (25%)
5.25 out of 7 you are folding (75%)
You would be raising almost 35% of the time.

Hmm, the game theory bit is interesting, but there's so many factors I haven't even began to look at. I'm plenty sure that stack sizes, the size of the pot and the c-bet on the flop, image of villian, and image of hero are all super-important (of course). Against a smart opponent, this could be an nice way to mix it up though.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Dangerous thought:

What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?

Now you're getting into some game theory, if u don't have a coin you could raise every time the middle card is a diamond, or the right or left card, as long as you decide pre-flop.

I'm thinking you've got AJ here, if the tight player reraises he's got AK and you can muck, if he calls you can bet the turn and check behind him on the river incase he's got AQ. Raising would be better than just calling if he's aggressive because showing weakness might encourage him to make a huge bet on the turn. You wouldn't know if he's got AA, AK, AQ or if he's just betting because you showed weakness.

Originally Posted by KY_Ace

I'm thinking you've got AJ here

I just sprayed coke all over my keyboard. Thanks!

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by KY_Ace

I'm thinking you've got AJ here

I just sprayed coke all over my keyboard. Thanks!

I guess I'm way off take pride in being hard to read! First thought would be A7s but you said you weren't playing for stacks, and you gotta call with A7 if he pushes. Next guess would be spade draw because if he goes AI you can fold but if he just calls and you make your flush you can stack him, hope you don't spray any more coke on your keyboard! When he calls your first raise he's getting in deep and knows he might face more big bets on the later rounds hence the name "implied threat", so he's putting his stack on the line.

Lol, I never played this hand. Putting me on a specific hand here anyway is kinda silly. Putting me on a hand detracts from the point.

Ever hear of Schrödinger's Cat?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schrodinger%27s_cat

Every poker hand is like this. The actual cards someone happens to hold is as non-deterministic as the river card. Unless you can line up an exact line to an exact hand based on information on an exact player. However, as thinking players we should (almost) never do this against another thinking player because once they know what we have they can't make a mistake.

Is this what you are talking about Fnord?

Pressure points:
http://doubleas.blogspot.com/2005_05...96753669817010

I forgot that this hand was fictional. I'm thinking of the concept that you are getting at here. If you flopped a set and you wanted to play for stacks you would make this raise on the flop followed by a bigger bet on the turn and an even bigger bet on the river and the TAG knows this. Your raise is big eneugh that if the TAG reraises he's commited to the pot and he's stacked if you've got him beat. If your opponent is competent and thinking about future rounds, he'll fold any hand that he's not willing to risk his stack on, "implied risk". He wouldn't want to call an extra $12 on the flop just to fold on the turn when you bet again. With his bet there is $14 in the pot, you're risking $18 to take down the pot on the flop, whether you have a hand or not. A TAG that will c-bet HU %90 of the time will only be able to risk his stack with 10%-20% of his hands which makes your play very profitable as long as it's not overused. It's like an order of magnitude thing, the $6 bet is step 1, the next order of magnitude is the raise to $18, the next order of magnitude is an AI. Are we even on the same wavelength or are you unable to type because your keyboard is soaked with soda beyond all recognition?

Alright now for the twist.

So far we've gone forward with the assumption our TAgg feels he's playing for stacks if he continues with his hand. However, many weaker and some not so weak players will often just call the raise, check/fold the turn, but attack any weakness. Or just check/call it all the way. Really weak players will often call the flop bet (in for a penny, in for a pound) then get second thoughts once the turn hits.

Against a call, how often should be follow through on the turn?

Consider that it's quite possible Rippy makes a lot of money following through here.

I think this would be entirely based on the strength of our actual hand, and the mentality of our opponent.
If I did have air, and was called on the turn by a tight player, I would follow through almost 100% of the time for a bet of more than half their remaining stack. Against a player who is likely to call with one pair, I would follow through exactly never.

If he calls the flop he's decided to look you up with a big ace or he's on a spade draw. I'm assuming that you don't have much of a hand and you're asking "should I fire another another round with cock?" Well you've got $48 left to work with and the pot is $40. If the turn is a spade and he checks I think I'd give up on the hand, he's commited with a good ace and he's CRing if he's got spades. If the turn is a non-spade I'd bet $12. No matter what the river is you have to bet it now, the pot is $64 and you have $36 left. If the river is a non-spade bet just eneugh to get the King high spade draw to fold, $15?? If the river is a spade and he checks, he's got an ace and he's scared of the flush, you have to push, "$36 to call TAG!!!"

Originally Posted by KY_Ace

If he calls the flop he's decided to look you up

You would think this, but you would think a lot of things, then you actually start playing with these guys...

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by KY_Ace

If he calls the flop he's decided to look you up

You would think this, but you would think a lot of things, then you actually start playing with these guys...

I wouldn't be certain of it but the probability would be high eneugh that I wouldn't want to risk another $48 to steal $40.

Personally if my hand isn't strong eneugh to play for stacks I'll call the flop raise and see if my opponent has a big eneugh hand, or big eneugh balls to bet big on the turn before I laydown a good ace.

However I don't know high stakes NL players styles because I have only played SnGs for high stakes and the ring game thing is a little new to me and I'm stuck at low limits right now because of personal problems draining my bankroll, Divorce, Jail, Fines ect.... hard to move up in limits when you make $400 in a week playing playing $10 NL and then instead of moving up you have to pay back rent or pay a fine to stay out of jail or replace shit that your soon to be ex-wife bitch stole from you when you were in jail. It's sad that I cleared over $30,000/year for the last 2 years but I haven't had over $1,000 in my bankroll since June/05 when I replaced the transmission in the car that my bitch ex-wife who moved in with another man drives now. Fuck it... that's life... sometimes you get rivered, things can only get better now! More free time , less expenses, less drama. WSOP here I come!

Originally Posted by KY_Ace

I wouldn't be certain of it but the probability would be high eneugh that I wouldn't want to risk another $48 to steal $40.

Personally if my hand isn't strong eneugh to play for stacks I'll call the flop raise and see if my opponent has a big eneugh hand, or big eneugh balls to bet big on the turn before I laydown a good ace.

I poker!

Originally Posted by arkana

Is this what you are talking about Fnord?

Pressure points:
http://doubleas.blogspot.com/2005_05...96753669817010

WOW!!! This is an excellent read, opens my eyes to concepts that I've only thought about breifly. This is high level poker, these concepts really exploit the fact that in high stakes games your cards are not a big factor because there is rarely a showdown!

and arkana takes the fame of "founding" that post, arkana = <><

Fnord, not only does rippy (I guess) follow through on turn but some big names, like Strassa2, have said that they like to brush off the weakies on turn. That is also what I almost always do here (unless the villain is a good aggro and CR's his fair share, and I dont have aces up or better), there are a lot of players who would call your re-raise here with AQ/AJ and then check and fold to a big bet on turn because they wanted to see "wherethey were at". Defending against a good aggressive player who has position is extremely tough, I dont want to play for stacks with AK here.

next discussion should be about how to defend against guys like that when hero is OOP. You have to either give up a whole lot of hands of start pushing a lot more to put it briefly IMO.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by KY_Ace

If he calls the flop he's decided to look you up

You would think this, but you would think a lot of things, then you actually start playing with these guys...

Kinda TAggy player who tries to play well

If he calls the flop raise, pushing the turn with any 2 is very +EV, assuming your read is good. He might even fold AK.

No hyper-aggro responses yet....

Rippy?
Triptan3s?

Defending against a good aggressive player who has position is extremely tough, I dont want to play for stacks with AK here.

pretty much

A good line here with AK against a good aggro would be to call the flop raise, and lead strong on a safe turn.

reraising with air is always fun
reading opps have hands they cant get all in with before we have created an image of 'i play pokah bitch' is even more fun...
at least ive been on the right tracks so to speak.


Edit: im still not happy about this concept of being pot stuck or pot commited.
Dont lecture me i know what it is and what it means. I just dont believe you can be stuck in a pot where you believe that you are not good. Thi links to the clearest message i have learnt: +ev isnt just about having the best hand, its also about having the second best hand or not enough balls.

I just dont believe you can be stuck in a pot where you believe that you are not good.

strongly disagree

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

I just dont believe the crap that gets shown to me when I make a good pot odds call.

Fixed your post.

Originally Posted by Fnord

NLHE $0.5/$1 blinds, $70 effective stacks.

Kinda TAggy player who tries to play well opens from MP for $4.
Fnord calls from the button.
Blinds fold.

$8ish in the pot

Flop is:


TAggy bets $6, Fnord raises to $18.

TAggy is playing for stacks, Fnord is not. Discuss.

You say (fictional) Fnord is not playing for stacks, I take it this means then, that you are looking for a fold here.

Doyle Brunson talks about betting like this in SSII where he puts a player to a decision for his stack but if the player does move allin he folds.

I think the opponent has a big problem calling here - If he has the A he will be worried about a set - if he has a PP (not the AA 77 44), the A is scaring him.

If he's a good player (try's to be) I'm sure he is aware that he is playing for stacks here and will fold.

If he had KQs and has a flush draw I could see him calling to see the turn - folding if it is not a spade on the turn or reraising allin on the flop.

If he had 77 44 then you could see him moving allin as he would think that you are willing to play for stacks.

So it looks like he is limited to a few hands that he will be willing to carry on with in this hand.

My thoughts are, considering villan is TAGG and 'trys to play good' and seeing as he's OOP facing aggression - then unless he can get to showdown cheaply (which here he cant) then maybe he only really wants to go to showdown with AA (top set).

Most of the time here (when he doesnt hold AA) He is OOP and wants to win the pot post flop without a SD, but here he's facing aggression. If he has to get to SD than he's gonna need some good player reads (on you). does that make sense?

"TAggy is playing for stacks, Fnord is not. Discuss." -What does this mean exactly? If this means Taggy is willing to get his stack in with TPGK then surely running a bluff here is looking like -ev.

Quote:
I just dont believe you can be stuck in a pot where you believe that you are not good.

strongly disagree

Oh no Miff post time?

Miffed22001 wrote:
I just dont believe the crap that gets shown to me when I make a good pot odds call.


Fixed your post.

lol.
QFT

I guess now for an answer to the post.
Opps range preflop is recognisable as they are a taggy player. In full ring the likelyhood of a fold is more likely imo than 6 max as the raisng range of a tagg is a little wider. Perhaps taggs who arent rocks turn into semi-loose aggressives in 6 max so vp$ip is cloer to 20-25% but only my opinion.
Here then in this hand Fnord isnt playing for stacks in most cases. Why? Opp makes a standard c-bet after raising preflop. Pretty standard. But facing a raise from fnord in position despite having made a bet that suggests a hand puts opp in a serious situation. Why? Opps reaction to the raise defines not only his hand but how far he is willing to go in the hand. Most players here, assuming they have the ace will either call and see a turn (and at times improve to a very good second best hand and still bust) or then fold to more strength on the turn (ala rippy poker ) or will just fold the flop believing they are beat. Occasionlly we find the calling station who thinks fnord is full or air or is making a play with a flush or straight draw or weaker ace and decides to call some big bets through a few streets (often bad play)
Rarely do you find a player who will reraise fnord here with top pair because opp doesnt recognise this is both a positional bully tactic and an easy play to make when opp knows top pair is a pretty weak hand facing a standard raise, although to counter this arguement facing a raise from a good player in position it is actually a lot stronger hand. Obviously, this is the bait in the trap. Doing this once with air or a weaker ace and getting play from opp means the big hand will get paid.

You know someone is a little tough to handle when they consistently 3 bet you back, and overbet turns when you smooth call flops on the draw.

This is exactly what im pointing to here then!
Thus why is opp playing for stacks and fnord isnt? Fnord doesnt want a call or at least believes his strong flop play will buy him the pot on the turn or perhaps even as far as the river (players who believe in being pot commited will probably argue that fnord must showdown if the hand reaches the river, but thats another point) Opps range of hands to call a raise, when he doesnt recognise it is positional is small, even tptk isnt really an option. But a set or a big flush draw or tpgk and a flush draw give options for opp. But in all those cases he almost has to play for stacks. Reasons?
1. His hand is very strong, perhaps stongest in the case of a set and thus playing for stacks is standard.
2. Top pair and flush draw is a hand that has semi-bluff capabilities becuase it can be played like a set or stronger hand. It thus has fold-equity as well as potential to draw to the best hand.
So, if opp decides his hand either has showdown capacity or opp has a hand that has semi-bluff/fold equity then he must play for stacks. facing a raise only the strength of an all in may force fnord to fold his hand.
On the other hand fnord makes what should be a standard play in position for many players
Opp raises then bets what appears to be a good flop. Fine, but then gets raised. As said, opps range to reraise fnord or pooosh is small and that allows fnord to get away from his hand if he decides what he has isnt strong enough. On the other case, if opp calls fnord can continue to show strength either with the nuts or air or a marginal hand as he has position and can guess opp cant call unless he has a damn strong read.
Thus opp playing out of position with a hand that is strong but not tht strong facing a genuine raise, but arguably is more strong facing a positional raise as here, must make a decision for his stack. Opp cant call here really and reasses on the turn. Either they push or reraise, over-playing a strong but not super strong hand or they fold to a show of positional strength.
This is why, as i have been learning recently more and more that air is a quality hand providing you know how to play it properly. As i keep posting in other peoples threads and HH's auto raising 1 in 3 flops in someone elses raised pot will buy you a number of pots through aggression pumping the magical bb/100 up as quickly as a nice run of cards will do.
how'd i do?

How long has the session been? How many times has he led out first to act and what did he showdown? What is Fnord's table image?

I'd like to talk about the PP scenario for a second. Lets put some numbers in.

Assumptions:
. 1000 chip stacks.
. Fnord holds TT-22, and is in position.
. Opp raises 5x the blinds to 50 chips.
. Fnord calls 50 chips.
. Blinds fold.
. Flop comes ???
. Oppenent C-Bets the flop apprx 70 chips, making the pot 185 chips.
. Fnord will raise this bet 180 chips if:
. He flops a set (12%)
. He doesn't flop a set, but two coins land heads (22%)
. Fnord's image is tight and very good at selective aggression.
. Therefore, Fnord is raising this bet almost exactly 1/3 of the time, 12% of the time with the goods, and 22% without.
. If Fnord flops a set it is the best hand.

The opponents C-betting freqency is defined as C.
We'll make the assumption that opponent hits a hand worth honestly raising approximately 40% of the time, including semi-bluffing draws, etc. Therefore, the amount of times that his C-Bet is a bluff is C - .40.

The EV of this hand is as follows:
1. 2/3 of the time, Fnord is folding his $50 preflop call after the flop.
2. Fnord Raises. The opponent will feel that either Fnord is bluffing, or that he has a stronger hand than Fnord's, and raise him all-in for the remainder of his stack. We will denote the percent of reraising as %RR.
2a. Fnord will fold to this raise if he holds only 1 pair. (2/3)
2b. Call if he has 3-of-a-kind (1/3)
3. Fnord Raises. The opponent's continuation bet on the flop did not represent a strong enough hand to continue, and the opponent folds.

Situation 1's EV is -$33.
Situation 2's EV is %RR * 1015.
Situation 3's EV is (1 - .66 - %RR) * 135 chips

If he never reraises you, and always folds when you make this play (1/3 of the time), your ev here is +$44.55, -$33, approximately $11.55 each time this situation occurs at NL 1k.

If he always reraises you, you are folding 230 chips 22% of the time, and making 1015 chips 12% of the time.
.22 * -230 = -$50.6
.12 * 1015 = +$121.8
.66 * -50 = -$33.3

Your EV if he always pushes is $37.9 at NL 1000. Interesting, no?

On the concept of implied threat:

Villian places a 75 chip bet, and has $300 remaining in his stack. Fnord raises his bet $200 into a 250 chip pot, making the pot $450, $200 to Villain, giving him a little better than 2:1 pot odds. However, it's really $300 to villain in a $650 pot, because Villain knows that if Villain pushes, Fnord is calling based on the ridiculous pot odds, and if Villain calls, Fnord is putting him in on the next street. So Fnord has just put out a $300 bet with 200 chips, making the situation much more precarious for the opponent.

What would the cards here be so that it would be profitable for hero to use the pressure point/implied threat so early in the hand?

LMAO LMAO LMAO

Too perfect, maybe this is why I just had to donk into Lukie....

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...=266654#266654

Fnord, I've been playing AOK's TAGG strategy, staying patient and trying to win small/medium pots with my good hands. Since moving up to NL100, my BB/100 is positive, but not by much.

I'm curious about just one thing here. In this situation, you raise from 6bb to 18bb on a flop that you missed. You definitely aren't talking about when you have the AAA or AAK in this hand, when you make the pressure raise. My question: are you folding here to the re-raise to declare that you made this move with air? Or are you voluntarily showing your AIR when they fold to earn the reputation that prompts this guy to push all-in the next time he has AJ in this situation? I don't think you're saying that you're showing your hand, but I want to make sure.

EasyT

Yeah, Doyle Brunson talks about this in SuperSystem. He uses 20K stacks, and says h e can bet 7,000--which may as well be 20,000 to his opponent. Doyle isn't commited no matter what his cards are, but he puts the opponent to a decision for his stack without risking his own.

Originally Posted by EasyT

My question: are you folding here to the re-raise to declare that you made this move with air?

YES! I'll leave it to them to guess what I might have had.

Originally Posted by EasyT

Or are you voluntarily showing your AIR when they fold to earn the reputation that prompts this guy to push all-in the next time he has AJ in this situation?

I don't show hands online and have pretty much stopped doing it live. More often than not, I want to be called here and if I show it gives people less incentive to pay me off.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I don't show hands online and have pretty much stopped doing it live. More often than not, I want to be called here and if I show it gives people less incentive to pay me off.

Sorry to be so dense. You're looking for a flat call? I thought you were hoping for a fold. If you get a call, you might bet again on the turn, or you might check behind on the turn -- depending on the texture of the hand and your opponnent?

You said showing gives people less incentive to pay you off. So when making this move you usually have a strong ace or better. You're not making this move with air?

EasyT

I think what Fnord meant was that most of the times he actually has a real hand here...

That's what I read him to mean too....so why isn't he playing for stacks and the other fella is? Again, sorry for being dense.

EasyT

great post for any would-be player.

Bump.

Time for another Bump.

I just stopped playing nit, and it feels good. At first I thought wtf am I doing risking $12 to win a $10 pot, etc., but it is surprising how many smart players fear a big check raise.

Obviously there are times you are going to be called. How often do you fire that second barrel? I really need to work on shuting down if I'm called.

But this leads to another question: If you try to show some implied threat and you shutdown after you are called, doesn't it hurt your image for later hands? It seems like when 1 guy pushes me off a hand, more people at the table think they can do it as well.

Your villain needs two more streets to get his money in, possibly because he's on a draw. You're telling him with this raise that more money is going to come flying at him on the turn and that you want to get your stack in. Is his hand strong enough? You're effectively risking 1/4 of your stack to put him to a decision for all of his chips, which tends to lead to a guessing game, which tends to lead to wrong decisions.

Tell me how close I was. :P

Originally Posted by ThelVlaster

But this leads to another question: If you try to show some implied threat and you shutdown after you are called, doesn't it hurt your image for later hands? It seems like when 1 guy pushes me off a hand, more people at the table think they can do it as well.

I think this is mostly in your head (and mine too). I think players still wait for a good hand and a good flop to fight you most of the time.

Yesterday I had a guy who called my pre-flop-raise, flop comes like T43, he thinks, then checks. I bet, he thinks and folds.

villain: nice bluff
villain: don't trip on your magic hat

I looked at my stats and I'm running 30/25/8 or something ridiculous at that table (I was getting good cards, and taking down a lot of missed flops). He knew I was likely full of shit, but unwilling to test without a made hand.

Originally Posted by Fnord

NLHE $0.5/$1 blinds, $70 effective stacks.

Kinda TAggy player who tries to play well opens from MP for $4.
Fnord calls from the button.
Blinds fold.

$8ish in the pot

Flop is:


TAggy bets $6, Fnord raises to $18.

TAggy is playing for stacks, Fnord is not. Discuss.

Preflop: OOP TAG i put him on AJs+, PP maybe 55+ AQ and AK on the offsuit side. Call from the button is almost anything, suited connectors, pocket pairs, 2 big suited cards QJ+

Flop, 3/4 pot, a bit too big for me to be a compete C-Bet, so I'm thinking he has something. 77 and 44 are possibilities with my preflop assumptions, AA i think he'd make a smaller bet maybe 1/2 pot to make it look like a C-Bet, i like to know his read on you a little first but i'm assuming he's seen you show good aggression. If he comes over the top here I make him for a 77/44 set pushing all in, a smooth call leans me more towards AA. I think his big aces might have led to a bigger bet on the flop to take it down right there with this draw heavy board. I'm sure he knows that 56 is definetly in your range as well as a lot of hands holding spades. I dont know how you'd play this with complete air, i see the raise at least being a semi-bluff. Air i'd probably take a call/Pop a scare card on the turn, and see how he plays the turn with the ace out there. I dont see you having a set here because with his 6 dollar bet and his fondness for playing for stacks a mini raise puts you in a good position to get him all in by the river with a big hand. AKo/AQo with the K or Q of spades feels good here so does KQ of spades as well as 56 of spades or any other suit. Mostly likely i'd have to put you on
10% air, 25% 88-JJ, 20%A big spade, 20%2 big spades, 10% 56, 15% Set
I'd like to see his option to make a better estimate of what he has here.