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Call or fold?

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  1. #1

    Default Call or fold?

    Button is 50/42 over 24 hands, has 3bet 17% and not gone all in yet.
    BB is 58/25 over 12 hands

    With 17% 3bet for button and it being barely bigger than a min raise I decided to 4bet to try to isolate against a weaker ace or take the pot right there. In hindsight I think I should have raised quite a bit more but I'm still working my head around the math for bet sizing!

    After his all in, as I had no way of forcing a fold after the flop I chose to fold.

    Thoughts?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB ($9.75)
    BB ($10)
    UTG ($13.10)
    Hero (MP) ($27.53)
    CO ($4.78)
    Button ($9.90)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K
    1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises to $0.70, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60, Hero raises to $2.50, Button raises to $9.90 (All-In), 2 folds

    Total pot: $5.75 | Rake: $0
  2. #2
    *I had no way of forcing a fold after the flop*

    If you haven't read this already it really is worth a read: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post1022862

    The general idea is that you can't make someone fold but you can make them make a mistake in not folding.

    In regards to the hand it is very difficult to say without more information. From what you say the villain seems to fit neatly into the maniac section. You only have 24 hands on him and of those hands he has played in 12 and 3bet 2. He may have just had an incredible run of cards or he may just like to burn money. What would be useful is what hands you have seen him take to showdown. When he 3 bet did everyone fold? Any other observations of his play would be useful. i.e. is he a nutter?

    You must remember that bad players get good cards just as often as good players. This guy seems to 3 bet way too much so you may be able to assume his 3 bet range is fairly wide and maybe even includes hands that you dominate {AJs+, AK, 88+} but it does still include hands that are a favourite over yours. I think your 4 bet was okay as he has such a wide range but you must consider that he may want to take his 3 bet range all the way, you may not have any fold equity against this guy (see the article ^^^) and he may have been willing to shove his entire 3 bet range pre-flop. Your decision should come from all of the bits of information you have gathered not only from HEM or PT3 stats but little things about his play. From just his stats it seems as though he is a big donator and you could probably felt AKo to this guy and be a favourite against his range.


    Posting hands with decisions you are unsure about is probably the best way to learn so you are doing the right thing! You shouldn't include results for the hand however (this includes whether or not you folded) as this skews the replies you receive. You should give the Beginners Digest articles a read as they are very helpful. If this seems like a bit of a ramble then you should know that I am new to the game as well and I would expect some more experienced FTR folk to be along with a more concise answer...
  3. #3
    Shotglass's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by givememyleg View Post
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  4. #4
    I like your 4bet sizing here.

    Folding is really bad though, consider his range and your equity vs it.
  5. #5
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    you have to call 7,7 into a 20,85 pot so you need 36% equity vs his range.

    AKo vs JJ+,AK has 39% but his 5bet AI range should be like 77+, AK and vs this you have 42% equity so it was a call.

    and even AKo vs QQ+,AK has 38% equity, so any range you give him you can still make a +EV call here.

    i doubt this guy is only shoving QQ+ here so we'd have to fold ( AK vs QQ+ has 31% equity)
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  6. #6
    Awesome until you fold. It's good you can fold AK pre, but it should be done against ranges that dominate your hand, such as QQ+ AKs, and this guy is shoving way wider than this. He's probably got 22+ ATs+ AQ+, idk, he's looking pretty wild to me.

    If villain is like 8/5, then yeah, fold, but don't let wild donks push you around. If he's got you dominated, that's tought luck. Reload and move on.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    Ok, a few things -

    When I said "I had no way to force a fold" I really just meant that with him being all in I had only two options, show the best hand or lose. There was no room for post flop play. I have read the article about forcing a fold and it is great.
    Only one of his 3bets had been called and it was the only hand I had seen him show down which was pocket Jacks.
    I didn't feel I had enough of a sample to really judge if he was just a complete maniac like he seemed or if he was just on a killer run of cards.
    Any which way you look at it though I obviously had the equity to call in this spot and should have done so.

    In hindsight I think my decision to fold was unduly influenced by my killer run of suck outs. Over the last 8k hands I am down $28 but HEM says my adjusted EV means I should be up $23. I really have to get out of the mindset of letting the past influence my decisions if I am to move forward.

    Thanks for the input guys.
  8. #8
    daviddem's Avatar
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    never folding vs a 50/42 here.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by HoopyDude View Post
    I like your 4bet sizing here.
    Because?

    Folding is really bad though, consider his range and your equity vs it.
    Because? Not saying I disagree with either, but that type of response doesn't help other members of the forum learn AT ALL.

    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
    never folding vs a 50/42 here.
    This, simply because his 3betting range is as wide as a whore's gape, and your 4bet likely just pissed him off so that he jammed. This defo happens at lolstakes.
    [20:19] <Zill4> god
    [20:19] <Zill4> u guys
    [20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
    [20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
  10. #10
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPoker View Post
    Because? Not saying I disagree with either, but that type of response doesn't help other members of the forum learn AT ALL.
    Hoopy's answer is fair. OP (or other forum members for that matter) should do their homework, put villain on a range and do the "analyze calling an all-in" thing. Even if villain 4b shoves only with KK+,AK, it's still a call (37% equity, 36% pot odds). If his range is any wider than that (and it is), it's gravy.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  11. #11
    Some people want to be spoon fed.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Some people want to be spoon fed.
    Nah, not at all. I understand why hoopy said those things, but others may not.

    This sums up the BC to a T:

    2) Respond to other people's threads, but ask more question instead of giving advice. Guess what: most of you are not really good enough to be giving that much advice. However, all of you are smart enough to ask questions and probe the depth of your knowledge. You'll learn way more from saying, "Why is it better to b/f this turn than c/c?" than saying "omg obv b/f EZ". It's quite embarrassing to see a guy who can't beat Xnl dropping strat advice all over the place. That's not meant to disparage guys who struggle at this limit, but know that a lot of people struggled at those limits before they learned to be good. You just have to have the right attitude--less about your own hands, less about being the first into a thread to drop advice, more about being the first one to ask the tough question that sparks debate..
    Last edited by EasyPoker; 05-08-2011 at 05:17 PM.
    [20:19] <Zill4> god
    [20:19] <Zill4> u guys
    [20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
    [20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
    Hoopy's answer is fair. OP (or other forum members for that matter) should do their homework, put villain on a range and do the "analyze calling an all-in" thing. Even if villain 4b shoves only with KK+,AK, it's still a call (37% equity, 36% pot odds). If his range is any wider than that (and it is), it's gravy.
    And how does this answer the 4bet sizing question?
    [20:19] <Zill4> god
    [20:19] <Zill4> u guys
    [20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
    [20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Some people want to be spoon fed.
    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem
    Hoopy's answer is fair. OP (or other forum members for that matter) should do their homework,
    I really hope these weren't directed at me?

    I've freely admitted I don't fully have my head around the math involved in equity calculations but I am trying to learn it and get a good grasp on it.
    I think I've done a reasonable job of trying to explain my thinking, such as it is, in the few hands I've posted and I've tried to show where I think I made mistakes. I don't just come on here expecting to be told exactly what to do in any situation without having thought about it first myself.
    Believe it or not, I've actually read every article that people have linked to before the link has been posted. For example, putting someone on a range. It's great to read the article/thread, it's a whole different ball game to actually be able to do it, much less do it well. Therefore I ask questions regarding certain situations in order to try to learn better.

    Forgive me and please do accept my sincere apologies if this type of behaviour is considered to be an example of wanting to be spoon fed and not having done any homework. I didn't realise one was supposed to only ask deeply intriguing and highly complex or analytical questions in the beginners circle.
  15. #15
    can people stop criticizing another persons response because its apparently not constructive enough, jesus christ it fucking tilts me. If you are unhappy with other peoples responses just make your own perfect response.

    edit: I'd call too given his spewy stats so far. I dont play 6max tho atm.
    Last edited by mbiz; 05-08-2011 at 05:35 PM.
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by PKKFW View Post
    I really hope these weren't directed at me?
    No.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by mbiz View Post
    can people stop criticizing another persons response because its apparently not constructive enough.
    ok
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #18
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PKKFW View Post
    I really hope these weren't directed at me?

    I've freely admitted I don't fully have my head around the math involved in equity calculations but I am trying to learn it and get a good grasp on it.
    I think I've done a reasonable job of trying to explain my thinking, such as it is, in the few hands I've posted and I've tried to show where I think I made mistakes. I don't just come on here expecting to be told exactly what to do in any situation without having thought about it first myself.
    Believe it or not, I've actually read every article that people have linked to before the link has been posted. For example, putting someone on a range. It's great to read the article/thread, it's a whole different ball game to actually be able to do it, much less do it well. Therefore I ask questions regarding certain situations in order to try to learn better.

    Forgive me and please do accept my sincere apologies if this type of behaviour is considered to be an example of wanting to be spoon fed and not having done any homework. I didn't realise one was supposed to only ask deeply intriguing and highly complex or analytical questions in the beginners circle.
    Fair enough, but now take your hand and apply the method described in this thread to it. Even if you cannot put your opponent on a precise range, you will soon realize that even if his range was tight it would warrant a call. Please do the actual calculations and post them here in this thread. We'll help with the math if you have difficulties. Actually doing this regularly helps tremendously to develop a feel for similar situations, which you can use at the tables. Also next time you have a similar situation, you can do the calcs in your OP and then all that remains to be discussed is whether the range you put him on is correct or not.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
    Fair enough, but now take your hand and apply the method described in this thread to it. Even if you cannot put your opponent on a precise range, you will soon realize that even if his range was tight it would warrant a call. Please do the actual calculations and post them here in this thread. We'll help with the math if you have difficulties. Actually doing this regularly helps tremendously to develop a feel for similar situations, which you can use at the tables. Also next time you have a similar situation, you can do the calcs in your OP and then all that remains to be discussed is whether the range you put him on is correct or not.
    Ok.........

    1: Bet size/(bet size + pot size)

    The way I see it....

    7.40/(7.40 + 13.15) = 36%


    2: The poker stove calculations -

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 58.014% 54.45% 03.57% 151959394 9960364.00 { AcKd }
    Hand 1: 41.986% 38.42% 03.57% 107225430 9960364.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, A9o+, KJo+ }

    So as has been said before, I certainly had the equity to call and should have. Even if he only shoves with KK+ and AK I still have the equity to call. Any which way you want to slice and dice the numbers it was an oh so obvious call.

    So do we even consider the fact that we only have a sample of 24 hands on the guy? Sure he is looking like a complete maniac fish at this stage but over only 24 hands can we really make any sort of true determination of his range?

    Now, in this particular situation with the amounts involved we have the equity to call almost no matter what so that's settled. But what if the situation/amounts were different? Do we look at the 24 hands and decide this guy must be a fool, assign a relatively large range to him and call or do we err on the side of caution and fold?

    Obviously each situation is different and there is no straight answer to those questions. It was these questions regarding my sample size that really drove me to ask here in the first place but I didn't really make that clear in my OP.
  20. #20
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Well done on the calcs, see it's not that hard.

    Believe me, it is very unlikely that a player whose actual stats are, for example, 13/10 would run 50/42 over 24 hands. This was mathematically demonstrated by Robb in some thread a long time ago. Preflop stats take less hands to converge than you think. I am not saying that the stats are really accurate at this stage, just that they are good enough to conclude that there is a high likelihood of this guy being a loose-aggro-tard.

    Here you go:
    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...th-175213.html
    Last edited by daviddem; 05-09-2011 at 05:35 AM.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  21. #21
    ^^

    Thanks for the link. I didn't get all the math involved but understand the idea that even with a small sample size if they appear like a loose aggro maniac they probably are. I'll keep that in mind in the future.
  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPoker View Post
    Because?

    Because? Not saying I disagree with either, but that type of response doesn't help other members of the forum learn AT ALL.
    Fair points I should have expanded on what I meant and posted some links for the OP.

    1. I like the sizing because he can shove over with air sometimes, if we made it like $3.50 I think he folds more. Smaller probably misses value from stuff like AT/KJ and might make him flat more which is ok but but oop with AKo in a 4bet pot does suck since we brick so often.

    2. Well I meant that folding may have zero expected value but if calling is found to be +EV then we should call. Since this is an all in the only things you need to think about is pot odds and his range because there is no action afterwards.

    Basically I think it's better for people to do stuff like this themselves so they understand the why behind decisions. Rather than have 50 people post "EZ snap call". You only learn the "what" from that.

    Props to PKKFW for running through the calculations.
  23. #23
    rpm's Avatar
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    this one's a 4b/call AI for me. i imagine he'd shove it in with some worse Ax hands. 4b/folding a hand this strong absolutely sucks. and flatting AKo OOP to aggressive opponents' 3bets isn't exactly awesome.
  24. #24
    Definitely call. I'd almost consider stacking off AQ here and probably as low as 88 or 99.
    [00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
    [00:30] <DC> daven
    [00:30] <DC> on my hand?
    [00:30] <daven> yep
    [00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
    [00:30] <daven> nice reason
    [00:30] <daven> no further questions
    [00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

    Problem officer...?

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