A Bwuff

Villain is 17/13/1 over 30 hands with a 3 bet of 16.7.

Note he hasn't reloaded at any point so I assume from this and his 3 bet size that he's likely bad.

I felt I couldn't fold pre flop for this min-ish 3 bet in position when I had a hand with some potential to stack the guy. Plus it was obv 3 handed.

I decided not to raise to get it in on the flop because he'd offered me great odds to float and draw and I didn't rule out the possibility of him playing some nut hand this way although I felt the 1/2 c-bet was likely weak. I planned to bet the turn if checked to. On the river i felt his range was really weak, mainly [underpairs, busted fds, AJ, AK.]

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (3 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($41.79)
BB ($19.20)
Hero (Button) ($20.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 10
Hero bets $0.70, 1 fold, BB raises $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.50) Q, J, 6 (2 players)
BB bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($7) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.65, BB calls $4.65

River: ($16.30) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12.20 (All-In)

Total pot: $16.30

preflop is OK not because you can stack him, but because it's a lot of air as well

flop is OK because your draw is not to the nuts so if he gets it in with a hand like Ahxh he has you crushed and he's probably calling it off with a hand like KQ so you don't have great folding equity and tainted outs everywhere

I don't like the turn, because if you had KQ you're likely to raise/get it in on the flop
if you're calling for your draw I'd prefer to check it back because if you hit the ace you're stacking him easily

so you're basically repping T9/88, although I'm sure some people will disagree and like a turn bet for the reason that he's showing weakness :O

I don't like the river bet at all because it's oh-so-callable by a queen

I mean he might call you with Qc3c because your line says "I either have the nuts or a bluff"
thinking about it Q3 is the same as AJ in this spot so he might call you with that too

Yeah, the bluff on the end makes no sense. It doesn't complete...anything except for trips and 2 pair. If it would have completed a straight draw/flush then that would have perhaps been a better bluff.

what are you representing?

Originally Posted by daven

what are you representing?

he's repping a busted flush draw

Agree with iopq.

However, this hand depends so much on what you think he´s peeling the turn with. You´re also repping more than missed hearts, after all T9 fits very well with this line, not sure how you´d play 88/66/KQ/AJ.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by daven

what are you representing?

he's repping a busted flush draw

sounds pretty unbalanced, I wonder if that's exploitable.

If I think villain is a 0 level thinker and lilkely bad, does it matter what I'm repping? The turn is really bad if we think there's any chance we will get c/r off our hand, but I thought this was close to 0.

I didn't think a Q was likely at all on the river because I don't see why he would ever play it this slow up until now on this drawy of a board. If my read is correct, I'd expect him to play a strong hand fast here in a 3 bet pot.

So basically:

1. I think he has a very weak hand with some or no sd value at most AJ and almost never a Q or better. By the way; why do people think a Q is even in his range here?

2. We have K high so even if we aren't repping much against a likely non thinking player, I'd rather follow through than shut down and lose to a weak range.

3. I don't think in this spot that it matters one bit in the slightest how I'd play nut hands here and that I'd never take this line with a set or top 2 or KQ. This $19 stack donk imo looks very weak and isn't going to hero call us because he likely doesn't understand that my line says ""I have either the nuts or a bluff""

Fwiw even if I'm wrong about this guy's ability and he is putting me on a range of hands etc, I think my shove on the river looks far less like a busted fd after I bet the turn. Checking turn and betting the river I think would be "repping the missed fd" more.

Maybe checking behind turn and giving up river is better. I like IOPQ's point that I'll stack him should an ace fall, but I think after betting the turn it makes my shove on the river a bit more credible and I have to follow through at this point.

Thanks for the useful input. Let me know if any of my thinking there is bs sicne it's just my take on things.