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BTN steal, flop 2 pair but facing turn raise

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  1. #1
    Vinland's Avatar
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    Default BTN steal, flop 2 pair but facing turn raise

    Villain is 11/3/1 AF w/ 0%3bet over 65 hands.
    Loose range I put him on turn: KT, KJ,, AK, AQ, Ad9d+, As9s+, TT. I doubt he floats 66 on this flop and I doubt he bluffs often unless its a semibluff.
    Am I missing something or has this nit hit a monster flop?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
    Hero (Button) ($7.19)
    villain (SB) ($5)
    BB ($4.71)
    UTG ($7.14)
    UTG+1 ($5)
    MP1 ($8.11)
    MP2 ($6.01)
    CO ($15.07)
    Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, J
    5 folds, Hero bets $0.12, villain calls $0.10, 1 fold
    Flop: ($0.29) 10, J, K (2 players)
    villain checks, Hero bets $0.20, villain calls $0.20
    Turn: ($0.69) 6 (2 players)
    villain checks, Hero bets $0.56, villain raises to $2.15, Hero ?
  2. #2
    fold. given stats, i dont see us as having any fold equity here, and opp's raising range on turn destroys us
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  3. #3
    Unless you have pushed him around a bunch before he might feel need to try and outplay you. But I highly doubt that this type of villain is going to screw around just because he is pissed of because you steal too much. Fold.
  4. #4
    Shotglass's Avatar
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    Bigger on flop like 0.25 to 0.30ish if he calls that then I'm prolly gonna try to get to a cheap showdown.

    OTT - I'd check behind, risk the free card and call any blank river for 3/4psb or less. If he checks the river then I'd cb:

    As played: when someone who's not normally agressive suddenly does a c/r for a bunch of $$$ then be careful.

    ~30% equity vs. the range you assign and will prolly be facing aggression on the river - I think it's an easy fold
    Last edited by Shotglass; 08-13-2011 at 04:12 PM.
  5. #5
    Easy fold vs a nitty looking player.

    OTT - I'd check behind, risk the free card and call any blank river for 3/4psb or less. If he checks the river then I'd cb:
    Turn is a definite valuebet, loads of worse hands call and this guy will almost never raise as a semibluff.
  6. #6
    Shotglass's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Easy fold vs a nitty looking player.

    Turn is a definite valuebet, loads of worse hands call and this guy will almost never raise as a semibluff.
    good point
  7. #7
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    if you fold the turn after the check-raise then this hand was played well.

    go and take a look at pokerstove. See how you fare against
    {KJs, AQ, KQs}, then note that this is optimistic.

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