Bluffing river scare cards

I've been looking at my play recently and I think I miss out on a few spots by not betting the river, so after a few pointers if possible.

Say I raise QT on the button, a limper calls and I am heads up.

Flop is Jh 4c 7d

He checks and I make a standard c-bet of 75% pot.

Turn is 2h and he checks, I check after.

River comes Ac, he checks, now would it be profitable in the longterm to fire a 75% pot bet and rep the ace?

I know checking after the turn was weak but my range definetely holds an ace, so would that be a good spot to steal?

So often, I fail to make the river bet and a hand like 66 takes it down so I'm thinking betting the river when an overcard such as K/Q/A hits the river to rep QK/AK type hand?

I play NL20 so you do see some crazy calls on the river so just wondering whether I'd take it down enough times to make it profitable?

this is so opponent dependent it's not even funny. posting a specific HH against a specific opponent will do better to answer this question.

Originally Posted by surviva316

this is so opponent dependent it's not even funny. posting a specific HH against a specific opponent will do better to answer this question.

I can't get the HH converter to import the hands for me.

The above is an actual hand I played. Villain was 48/12/2 over around 100 hands.

I check after the turn, normally a hand would lead the river, so I'm putting him on a low PP, I checked after and he had 66 to take it.

I just don't know whether he would see I'm repping AK/AQ here and fold to my river bet...would it be profitable vs this guy? His fld to c-bet was bang on 50% as well so I know he's calling with draws and missed sets etc.

I don't know how to work out how many times I'd take this down on a bluff and whether it would be profitable to do so.

yeah HH converter doesn't work til you get ten posts. if this is 10NL- then betting the flop or turn is much better spot to bluff here. if villain has shown ability to fold to cbet (nice to keep this stat close by at lower limits), then this is a lovely flop to cbet.

if he has <50% (i'd even say <60%) fold to cbet then a delayed cbet is a great option (in other words bet the turn). i know wtf are we repping because the 2 improves like none of our range, but we're not against a thinking opponent so we don't need to think two steps ahead of him.

as played, i think the EV of bluffing river is marginal depending on postflop stats. a passive player is capable of calling here with a lot of MP, split pair type hands. if you haven't seen villain make a bad river call in any past showdowns then it's worth a shot 'cause the metagame makes up for the marginal EV imo (the pot is microscopic, so it's not a bad spot to get into villain's head that we're capable of bluffing)

Scare card betting will mainly work against a weak player.
Very Situational in my opinion.
Watch his style and see if he can Fold from time to time.
Most often you will have more luck betting a Scare card on the Turn then the River.

Everything in moderation, I wouldn't make a habit of it.
It's a very easy move to catch someone on and take advantage of their bad play.

Good Luck

Originally Posted by Roller

Scare card betting will mainly work against a weak player.

not necessarily true. a weak player may go "well i still have a pair I call"

whereas a better player might've seen the cbet as a standard play, the turn check a standard play, and now that hero has hit his ace on the river he might elect to fold 2nd/3rd pair

hmmm.... how can i make my bluff look like a bluff.... i know, ill check behind on the turn

I think the scare card on the river has saved me more times then i can count, i always here "great you must have hit" when in reality, i was just playing the cards, if find alot of players out there that shy away from the move cause it could cost you, put i think you have to use multiple plays in cards, and this one should not be left out

Yes you should rep the ace on the river there and act as if you do in fact have the ace it woudnt be hard if its a good player your facing for him to fold 66 considering the ace beats him and the other 2 cards on the flop beat him as well the 7 and the J so if you had made a reasonable bet on the river, he would have lied down the pocket 6's. I know what you mean though sometimes its just more profitable to check the river and save your self some money instead of betting knowing the the player might call you down with a low pp.