bluff-jam turn 25nl

villain is 20/14/9 (VPIP/PFR/3b) over about 50 hands. he has folded 5/5 SB's vs steal, and 3/4 BB's (3betting the one time he continued). he has folded to 1/2 CB's, and C/R'd 1/2 flops. in the 71 hands i've played at this table (of which all 50 of my total hands with villain have been played) i'm about 30/24/8 and have CB 5/6 opportunities.

i peel the flop because i have equity against his nut hands, and i expect him to be full of shit reasonably often because most regs either 3b or fold the pocket pairs that flopped sets here.

on the turn i decide to jam because i expect to get all of his better flush draws to fold (which is every flush draw he can have) and i have 20% or whatever vs his sets if he ever has them. i understand jamming over turn bets generally sucks in terms of playing our whole range. but in this spot, this early in our history, i don't think i care.

thoughts?

edit: preflop sizing is because i have been stealing a lot and the guy to my left had begun 3betting me pretty liberally

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($29.87)
SB ($11.84)
BB ($25)
UTG ($28.20)
MP ($41.76)
Hero (CO) ($34.91)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 7
2 folds, Hero bets $0.60, 2 folds, BB calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.30) 5, 2, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.70

Turn: ($6.30) J (2 players)
BB bets $4.21,Hero raises to $21.90 (Effectively All-In)

I hate it. This looks like spewy bluffing to me. Do you think villain can fold flush draw + straight draw + overcards/pair combo? He obviously doesn't fold a set or A4. I guess you force him to fold out most flush draws and all the pps 66-TT, which is quite a large portion of his range, so maybe it's not as bad as it first looks. Idk, I don't like it because we risk so much with so little equity. I think I'd rather just reraise flop when we have twice as much equity if we're gonna go tits out with this one. Having said that, I'd probably call flop and fold turn.

This does not look very credible at all. I think flop is a fold. It's going to be near impossible for us to rep anything on future streets and our flush draw is really terrible.

edit: if I was going to spazz out here I think a small flop 3b is way way better.

Spewww. 3bet-fold flop. Save some money and get a better read on his range. If he jams he will have Axspades,sets, nut straight. Hell fold everything else.

Treebet sums it up best, lack of credibility kills it.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

edit: if I was going to spazz out here I think a small flop 3b is way way better.

this was my first thought but then i just give him the chance to jam over me with all his flush draws. whereas if i call (and expect him to lead turn near 100%) and jam the turn then stack sizes will be such that i can give flush draws, even those with two over-cards, the "incorrect" price to call against what i was hoping villain would assume would be a strong range. that's not necessarily to say i ever actually do this with a strong range.

Originally Posted by acg123

If he jams he will have Axspades,sets, nut straight. Hell fold everything else.

i expect him to have a straight roughly 0% of the time given he flatted out of the blinds. also, the reason i flat-called his flop C/R was so he COULDNT jam with Ax spaces etc. i wanted to be able to jam the turn vs those hands. also, he probably doesn't have many set combos either for the same reason he doesn't have 64s/64o

new angle, bearing in mind this guy has been tight from the blinds in our sample, and has either 3b or folded, do you think he has:
22 in his range?
33?
55?
A4s?
64s?

are they discounted at all? if he has all those small pairs, is it fair to assume he does with with 44 as well?

Have you thought about the benefits of checking behind the flop on this particular flop?

I think he has 22-66 pre, I suspect he 3bets A4s and folds 64s.

Originally Posted by caddie444

Have you thought about the benefits of checking behind the flop on this particular flop?

i used to do this versus more aggro regs at 50nl who also see me as aggro. it's nice to have villain remove all nut combos from your perceived range when you have two streets to catch one of nine cards to the nuts against aggressive opponents. admittedly, in this case, it didn't cross my mind. no. i think the thought process was something like "have equity. must bet"

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think he has 22-66 pre, I suspect he 3bets A4s and folds 64s.

so does he also have 44? or do you think he takes some other line with it?

so from villians POV, your 30/24/8 cbet 83% and you are probably stealing
around 80%+ ??

with a board of 5c 2s 3s what are YOU really repping here?
if i was villian i think your FOS here, especially when you dont 3bet flop. makes your hand look like a weak (draws,small overpairs, TP with gutter, etc.)
i would assume he did call,probably had Ax with spades.(including A2-A5,AT-AQ)
or 44. just read that reply i think he would do the same with 44 but i think he fold to jam with 44,66,77,maybe 99, i think he 3bets pre with anything TT+,AQs+,AKo maybe KQs and some other randoms mixed in.

Originally Posted by acg123

so from villians POV, your 30/24/8 cbet 83% and you are probably stealing
around 80%+ ??

my range is really wide getting to this flop, yeah.

Originally Posted by acg123

with a board of 5c 2s 3s what are YOU really repping here?

very, very little. that's the point most people are making and why people think it's spewy.

Originally Posted by acg123

if i was villian i think your FOS here, especially when you dont 3bet flop. makes your hand look like a weak (draws,small overpairs, TP with gutter, etc.)

guess it depends how well the villain handreads. you are right, again, that my flatting range on this flop doesn't contain many nut hands.

Originally Posted by acg123

i would assume he did call,probably had Ax with spades.(including A2-A5,AT-AQ) or 44.

villain folded pretty quickly.

Originally Posted by rpm

so does he also have 44? or do you think he takes some other line with it?

I think he can take this line with 44. I don't think it matters though, against 44 we're flipping, there's less than 1% between the two hands, so the net effect on our equity is negligable. Getting him to fold 44 wins us the same as getting him to call 44 (I think).

Actually, thinking more... if he folds 44 > 50% of the time, our shove is +ev against 44, if he calls it > 50%, then the shove is -ev. I can only guess how often 44 makes this call, depends a lot on the villain, history with hero, etc.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think he can take this line with 44. I don't think it matters though, against 44 we're flipping, there's less than 1% between the two hands, so the net effect on our equity is negligable. Getting him to fold 44 wins us the same as getting him to call 44 (I think).

Actually, thinking more... if he folds 44 > 50% of the time, our shove is +ev against 44, if he calls it > 50%, then the shove is -ev. I can only guess how often 44 makes this call, depends a lot on the villain, history with hero, etc.

man, i was expecting to fold out hands with as much equity as AsQs. if there's some non-zero % i get looked up by 44 here then no wonder everyone is saying this hand is just spew.

Originally Posted by rpm

man, i was expecting to fold out hands with as much equity as AsQs.

No.

Originally Posted by rpm

man, i was expecting to fold out hands with as much equity as AsQs. if there's some non-zero % i get looked up by 44 here then no wonder everyone is saying this hand is just spew.

I can hero call 44 in this spot if I think you have spades, and since you're overbet shoving, I'm not giving you many value hands. It boils down to whether this villain understands that you're not repping anything strong. If villain realises this, then 44 isn't folding, unless villain lacks the balls to trust his gut.

It looks to me like you were playing one street at a time, and had no overall plan for the hand. What are you trying to accomplish here, when you open with suited connectors in this spot?

i would open this hand UTG, fwiw, if you are suggesting that the open is slightly on the loose side? i was looking to win the blinds a lot of the time, and play a pot in position with the initiative and a hand that flops really, really well another good % of the time. as far as my whole range is concerned, i'm looking to play as many individual hands as i can which have a positive expectation

Originally Posted by rpm

play a pot in position with the initiative and a hand that flops really, really well

I was thinking more along the lines of:

With suited connectors, we hope for one of two things: to flop a draw or a combo hand against an overpair, or to flop a pair on a low card board against hands like KQ that caught air.

In either instance, the flop is the critical point in the hand, and pot control is essential. If we have to bluff, we prefer the flop as we have better odds of making our hand and more fold equity.

If that's our plan, where did things start going awry?

Originally Posted by Robb

I was thinking more along the lines of:

With suited connectors, we hope for one of two things: to flop a draw or a combo hand against an overpair, or to flop a pair on a low card board against hands like KQ that caught air.

these are two very specific examples of many regarding why suited connectors are valuable holdings but in the end it really comes down to shania, right? looking to play the widest range possible with a positive expectation. given that i will be in position a very large % of the time, have the initiative in the hand, and hold a hand which can flop equity with which to allow me to continue my aggression on a relatively large amountof boards postflop, i should have 87s in my opening range in this given situation. to be honest, i doubt i actually really need very much flop equity at all in order for this to be +EV, given how often i expect to win the pot preflop with no contest.

Originally Posted by Robb

In either instance, the flop is the critical point in the hand, and pot control is essential. If we have to bluff, we prefer the flop as we have better odds of making our hand and more fold equity.

why is pot control essential? i understand that the equity of "drawing" hands decreases over streets vs "made hands", but i felt that given villain is going to be bluffing or semi-bluffing most of the time, that i would be able to leverage my fold equity better by calling the flop and jamming over his near-inevitable turn barrel. plus by doing so i get another bet out of the weakest part of his range, which is what we are after when we decide to attack a weak range, right?

Originally Posted by Robb

If that's our plan, where did things start going awry?

i think my biggest flaw was thinking that, given the pot odds my shove would lay villain, he would fold hands like the nut flush draws. this was basically my whole reason for deciding to call the flop C/R with intentions of jamming the turn - to get him to incorrectly fold his flush draws or air which had me beat. it seems from people's responses that i was pretty wrong in expecting villain to ever fold a flush draw. for what little it's worth, villain here did fold pretty quickly. but i wasn't sure if i liked my bluff or not. hence the thread.

Originally Posted by Robb

I was thinking more along the lines of:

With suited connectors, we hope for one of two things: to flop a draw or a combo hand against an overpair, or to flop a pair on a low card board against hands like KQ that caught air.

In either instance, the flop is the critical point in the hand, and pot control is essential. If we have to bluff, we prefer the flop as we have better odds of making our hand and more fold equity.

If that's our plan, where did things start going awry?

re-reading, i disagree with the bolded part quite strongly. i feel middle-ish suited connectors are some of the most versatile holdings we can have. they are profitable in far more situations than just looking to bink vs overpairs or out-flopping bricked overcard hands.

Originally Posted by rpm

i doubt i actually really need very much flop equity at all in order for this to be +EV, given how often i expect to win the pot preflop with no contest.

I believe we can play this from the flop, ignoring preflop, for positive expectation. I'm thinking about how.

Originally Posted by Robb

I believe we can play this from the flop, ignoring preflop, for positive expectation. I'm thinking about how.

um, a cbet is going to show a positive expectation here so I don't understand what you're asking and it should show a larger expectation then checking back unless villain likes to BOTH c/r flop a tonne and c/fs turn a lot whenever he checks turn.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

um, a cbet is going to show a positive expectation here so I don't understand what you're asking and it should show a larger expectation then checking back unless villain likes to BOTH c/r flop a tonne and c/fs turn a lot whenever he checks turn.

A cbet will show positive expectation if we don't follow it up with spew.

wtf is going on in this thread

Originally Posted by bikes

wtf is going on in this thread

14 different opinions, and one man(RPM), had a read,followed his read and played from his gut. NH sir. lol