AKs OOP acts after a nit 3bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($10.07)
UTG+1 ($20.52)
MP1 ($5.86)
MP2 ($35.47)
MP3 ($25.26)
CO ($25)
Button ($25.25)
SB ($10.02)
Hero (BB) ($78)

MP2 is 10/7 AFq 67 in 849hands w/ FlopCbet 37%, Fold to FlopCbet 78%, 3bet 3%, Fold to 3bet 82%, ATS 9%
MP3 is 15/8 AFq 44 in 713hands w/ FlopCbet 64%, Fold to FlopCbet 30% , 3bet 3%, Fold to
3bet 54% , ATS 24%


Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.85, MP3 raises to $2.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.25, MP2 calls $1.40

MP3 3bet range is QQ+,AK never seen him 3bet something else vs a player like MP2

i think i cant fold here, but is it ok to just call or i should 4bet/fold?

Flop: ($7.10) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $5.75, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $15,

MP2 flatting preflop makes me think he is JJ,QQ, AK
MP3 range pre is QQ+, AK

what does hero do? should i c/c or c/f, depending on how things go rather then bet?
now that MP2 folded and MP3 raises, i only get beat by one AA combo, can never fold this right?

thoughts on all streets pls and what you think is best EV line here from preflop to when MP3 raises me.

thanks.

i hate doing it myself, but i think we should be folding preflop. this guy is only 3betting the nuts. i'd be surprised to see him have worse than QQ+,AK very often. so we probably only have 45% against villain's range at most (if he has JJ sometimes), we are OOP, meaning we need a greater equity advantage to continue than if we were IP. plus we risk domination because our range is capped and villain's isn't. ie we either flop an A or K and get it in vs AK, or flop an A or K and get it in versus a set, or flop air and C/F our equity. and we rarely are able to extract much from villain the times we completely outflop him. preflop i think fold > call > 4b/call > 4b fold. 4b/folding is the last thing i want to be doing with a hand as strong as AKs.

postflop i guess i just C/C down once we flop an A and only lose to 1 realistic combo and chop with 6. no need to lead out as it may cost us a later street of value from KK/QQ, and we are almost never in great shape vs his continuing range to a lead.

I think we can fold preflop vs 2 nitty opponents.

Leading does not accomplish much.

Maybe fold to his raise since at best we chop with AK, loads of money in the pot though.

Ugly. I don't think we can fold once we bink the A since we have 51% equity versus both villains if we think both of their ranges consist of QQ+, AK.

We can realistically drop QQ from MP2s range on the flop as he doesn't cbet without at least an A on this board and even tho MP3 is more aggressive he prolly isn't raising here with QQ. Dropping QQ from both of their ranges has us slightly ahead w/ 34%.

Shitty spot, fold pre.

If you run the numbers, 3% is JJ+ aks,ako. Your 60/40 on that flop. As played I would c/raise as he will cbet about 100% of his range. It's not a great spot and hard to get away from postflop,if you can fold pre it would save you a lot of money in the long run. As you will be behind more often pre, after flop I guess you have to put the money in and hope your not absolutely destroyed. Pretty disgusting tho. Lol

Originally Posted by acg123

If you run the numbers, 3% is JJ+ aks,ako. Your 60/40 on that flop. As played I would c/raise as he will cbet about 100% of his range. It's not a great spot and hard to get away from postflop,if you can fold pre it would save you a lot of money in the long run. As you will be behind more often pre, after flop I guess you have to put the money in and hope your not absolutely destroyed. Pretty disgusting tho. Lol

...why are you advocating a c/r on this flop?
"cause he cbets 100%" is pretty flawed rationale.

as for the hand, im not sure that folding pre is best, though its probably not terrible.
as played fold the flop, not sure that i like leading here.

Originally Posted by acg123

If you run the numbers, 3% is JJ+ aks,ako. Your 60/40 on that flop. As played I would c/raise as he will cbet about 100% of his range. It's not a great spot and hard to get away from postflop,if you can fold pre it would save you a lot of money in the long run. As you will be behind more often pre, after flop I guess you have to put the money in and hope your not absolutely destroyed. Pretty disgusting tho. Lol

unfortunately, it's not as easy as plugging someone VPIP/PFR/3b stat into pokerstove and knowing exactly their range. we would need a far larger sample for the stats be precise. given this guy is a pretty passive nitty player, only raising preflop with 8% of hands, i'm more inclined to think that his 3bet range is QQ+,AK. and he may not even 3bet AK 100%. also, check/raising this flop accomplishes nothing except putting our money on a plate for villain the times he has us beat, and allowing him to fold out the hands we beat. also, i doubt villain cbets QQ/KK on this board.

from my point of view this flop is dry, no one has a FD here, maybe a backdoor flush.

if i c/r this flop i only repp JJ since AA would 4bet pre w/o a doubt.

i lead out, tho i wasnt sure then but i am sure now that wasnt the best play, to see how MP2 reacts, he is pretty straightforward, a set (JJ,66 he somehow has implied odds to call 66 pre ) would deff raise me and i would deff fold to his raise since his raising range is only sets here.

when MP2 folded and MP3 raised, i wondered why would he raise AA here since flop is dry and he is HU with a player like me which range here is made of AK,JJ and he is 95% favourite. to me is weird to raise AA here since i fold every single hand that could get some value on turn from. i never seen him get out of line so i cant imagine he raises QQ, KK here and he has no reason to think i have something worse here then AK.

i think that i should just fold pre in spots like this since,like rpm said, AKs is the bottom of their range and there not much value i can get from them unless they hit big and then i am crushed or split postflop. i mean my only chance in a spot like this is a flush or trips K, but even then, i dont think i would get paid.

or maybe i am talking garbage.

Board isn't exactly dry and I would def be raising AA here.

? maybe i am blind but i can only see backdoor straights and flush.

Nah, you're right. Got mai JAck goggles on.

Backdoor - Poker Dictionary Definition

"A backdoor drawing hand needs to catch both the turn and the river to complete its draw " Boog

Edit, oh, I think you are saying, backdoor draws based on the ranges you allocate, good point.

I would probably bet less on the flop. Otherwise I think it is played reasonably well as long as you folded to the flop raise. I'd probably fold JJ-/AKo pre vs. these two.

i did fold, i do a lot folding last 50k hands, i found that was one of my many leaks, no folding enough. i started training in folding good to very good hands since i find so dificult to fold them in tricky spots, but i found that folding makes more money then calling... still it's very hard to fold spots like this.
whenever i feel unsure about a hand i fold, i am certain i am sometimes passing +EV spots, but when you play bad like i still do, this folding improves my winrate

just fold pre or 4b and don't donk flop if you aren't going to fold pre. vs these two nitty players. fold is pre is going to be the best option a large % of the time.

in this spot specifically it seems like an easy fold as it's mp vs mp, where 3b bluffing is less likely that other spots and also the player getting 3bet is extremely tight 10/8, so making a 3b bluff even less likely here.

you probably have the same hand tbh, but you're only chopping at best, so it's kinda a gross spot.

AK 6 combo's
AA one combo

mp3 isn't 3betting AJ/JJ/A6/66 imo also he's likely to check behind or bet/check behind turn with QQ/KK, so I have no idea why we'd want to donk this flop. also if we c/c it'll give us ample room to fold to a flop raise from mp2 who's range will be 66/JJ only probs.

Originally Posted by lolpwnt

just fold pre or 4b

i really hate calling it off pre here vs either of these guys when we get 5b shoved on as their 5b shoving range is probably as narrow as KKAAAK...and lol at 4b folding.

Id rather just see a flop with AKs here.

Originally Posted by thelorax

and lol at 4b folding.

Id rather just see a flop with AKs here.

+1 to lol @ 4bet folding

but against two villains who are so tight that they squeek when they walk, I'm not sure that I even want to see the flop 'cause most times we're just folding the flop

Fold pre. As played check raise and get it in.

Originally Posted by armanchik_arm

I hate AK and AJ, these two are so unlucky for me that I don't go into big games with them. I know that's wrong but most of the times I lose with them than any other cards.

Out of curiousity, is AQ lucky for you?