AK TP facing turn bet

villan 24/20 only over about 40 hands,

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($33.24)
Hero ($33.93)
BTN ($25.78)

Dealt to Hero A K

BTN raises to $0.62, SB calls $0.52, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, SB calls $2.88

FLOP ($7.62) 8 A 2

SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

TURN ($15.62) 8 A 2 8

[color=red]SB checks, Hero bets $9.50, SB raises to $25.74 (AI), Hero ?



I think bet smaller on turn, B/F right?

what beats you? you think hes closing the action with AA preflop (if he did then take a note)?...the 8 is awesome because it makes him having 88 3 times less likely.

Board: Ac 2s 8h 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.822% 02.48% 26.34% 12 127.50 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 71.178% 44.83% 26.34% 217 127.50 { AA, 88, 22, AKs, AKo }

so even with us just splitting with AK its still (marginally) a call...if you throw in any AQ or take out 22 (is he really calling with this pre?) then you have more than enough equity to make the call


but yea i think your sizing is fine for the turn if you think he will call with AQ (which i do)

Never b/f here. You'll see stuff like AJ/AQ way more often then any better hand. You have more than 50% equity here so it isn't even close.

And yeah bet the turn a little smaller.

yea had same range, just bad math on my part. TY

i was thinking lots would call but would worse raise but with the price i'm getting calling i guess is pretty standard

He's like 10x more likely to have AQ/AJ here than 22 or AK.

i think preflop might be a tad on the large side. also i'm never folding on this turn.

are you just 3 players at the table?

why arent we taking into account also 78s,89s,A8s? SB might consider the BB 3bet could be a squeeze and try to hit w/ his SC , Axs.

i dont think a 24/20 plays a AK, AA like that in SB vs a BUT open and most likely he 4bets these as played

also, like he played 88 is unlikey to be in his turn range.

my range for him is 78s,89s,AQ,AJ,22 and sometimes some Axss, so anyway is a call

but i might be wrong.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

are you just 3 players at the table?

why arent we taking into account also 78s,89s,A8s? SB might consider the BB 3bet could be a squeeze and try to hit w/ his SC , Axs.

i dont think a 24/20 plays a AK, AA like that in SB vs a BUT open and most likely he 4bets these as played

also, like he played 88 is unlikey to be in his turn range.

my range for him is 78s,89s,AQ,AJ,22 and sometimes some Axss, so anyway is a call

but i might be wrong.

We made the pot big preflop so almost all ha ds we get to see villain probably made a mistake with - hence we should never fold.

Villain can always have a weaker Ace - like AQ/AJ - spades etc