AJs how could i play this better

Hand#2597012199000782 - Rome (Turbo 6-max) 12199 -- $0.02/$0.04 NL Hold'em -- 2011/05/16 - 17:53:07
Seat 1: gand***1 ($4.07 in chips)
Seat 2: lilkidypoker ($4.73 in chips)
Seat 3: nxtp***3 ($7.38 in chips) DEALER
Seat 8: sewe***8 ($4.35 in chips)
Seat 9: mad9***9 ($0.83 in chips)
Seat 10: Boge***10 ($4 in chips)
sewe***8: posts small blind $0.02
mad9***9: posts big blind $0.04
Dealt to lilkidypoker [Js,As]
gand***1: folds
lilkidypoker: raises to $0.12
nxtp***3: raises to $0.20
sewe***8: folds
mad9***9: folds
lilkidypoker: calls $0.08
*** FLOP *** [Kd,Qs,9s]
lilkidypoker: checks
nxtp***3: bets $0.74
lilkidypoker: calls $0.74
*** TURN *** [5h]
lilkidypoker: checks
nxtp***3: bets $1.94
lilkidypoker: calls $1.94
*** RIVER *** [4c]
lilkidypoker: checks
nxtp***3: bets $2.91
lilkidypoker: folds
nxtp***3: returns uncalled bet $2.91
***SHOW DOWN***
nxtp***3: mucks
nxtp***3 wins $5.44

What sort of range are you putting this guy on and do you have any reads on him?

Edit: I had a more detailed response typed in first and then decided against it, which is why cj answered the way he did.

i put him on a variety of hands such as a set to even just top pair. now that i think of it i think my call on the turn was pretty bad.

Detailed ranges please from now on or else we cannot help you as much.

I think that this guy was playing att and just wanted to know which button to mash the next time.

@OP: street by street ranges and reads please

$0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
CakePoker
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($4.07)
Hero (CO) ($4.73)
BTN ($7.38)
SB ($4.35)
BB ($0.83)

Pre-Flop: ($0.06, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.12, BTN raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.46, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.74, Hero calls $0.74

Turn: ($1.94, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.94, Hero calls $1.94

River: ($5.82, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.91

I'd say shove on the flop. If he's betting like 1.75x the pot he's obviously gonna call your shove, and if a spade or a ten come up on the river, he probably would be much more cautious. I put him on a set/2pair/straight, so shoving would be correct in my op. By the turn though, calling his pot sized bet isn't +EV because you only have around a 25% chance of making your straight and/or flush, and the fact that you're OOP makes it worse because, again, if you check it back to him again when you hit your straight/flush, he may be smart enough to realize he should probably just check behind here, and if you were to shove at the appearance of a ten or spade, he could possibly fold. I think that he's a fish though, as he minraised you because he wanted you to call because he probably had AA, KK, QQ etc. so I doubt he has JT, a set/2pair seems to most likely.

I put him on a set/2pair/straight, so shoving would be correct in my op.

Wut? If that's what he has and he is never folding, then your shove is not +EV

Code:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  47,520  games     0.005 secs     9,504,000  games/sec

Board: Kd Qs 9s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     40.616%      40.53%     00.09%              19260            40.50   { AsJs }
Hand 1:     59.384%      59.30%     00.09%              28179            40.50   { KK-QQ, 99, KQs, K9s, Q9s, JTs, KQo, K9o, Q9o, JTo }

edit: I am not saying that shoving is incorrect in this hand, I am saying that if villain's range is what you said and villain is never folding, then shoving is incorrect.

well at this level a lot of players have been cbetting and double barreling reallly strong with nothing, i had no real read on the guy, so i can't really put a strong range on him. if that makes sense.

Strong or weak, you have to put him on a range. Even if he is totally unknown, then use a "default" range for the "average" opponent at this level.

Unless it's his/your first hand at the table, then you should at least have some read.

Hint: he minraised preflop and his bet sizing post flop sucks. This alone should tell you something. What about previous hands? Stats?

edit: and what is the reason that YOU are minraising preflop?

Originally Posted by ur daddy cj

i had no real read on the guy, so i can't really put a strong range on him. if that makes sense.

Nope. No sense at all.
Not assigning a range to an opponent is similar to flying a plane without instruments and the windows painted black. It may be thrilling for a little while but sooner or later you're gonna crash and burn.

Like daviddem said, even a default range until he proves he's an idiot: minraise and overbet.

jam flop

Originally Posted by daviddem

edit: I am not saying that shoving is incorrect in this hand, I am saying that if villain's range is what you said and villain is never folding, then shoving is incorrect.

yeah I wasn't bothered to give a complete range, just give OP the general idea

edit: Villain probably has a set and thinks that a set > straight > flush

Originally Posted by bikes

jam flop

^this.

Failing this fold the turn.

i think we have enough pot equity with 12 nut outs on the flop to just jam it in. especially when he overbets the flop. once you flat the flop though, calling the turn to this betsizing is pretty bad. for more on that, consult:
About Pot Odds and Implied Odds When Playing Draws - Poker Forums

Fuck's sake, flop call is horrible. Fold or shove, there's no calling a larger than pot size bet with a fucking draw. Without reads, I'd put him on sets, aces and AK, although it's a large flop bet for AK imo. First of all, do we have any fold equity? Can villain fold AK to a shove (if he can have it after this flop bet)? Or can he have JJ or worse (I doubt it very much)? If both of these answers are no, then we have to determine if shoving is profitable when villain always calls.
How To: Analyze Calling An All-in (I realise we're not calling an all in, but if he's always calling, then we should treat the maths the same)
After some tedious maths (take the link to learn how to do it), I figure we are making a -ev move by shoving against a range of QQ-AA, assuming AA rarely folds. If villain can have AK, it's still -ev if he always calls, but AK is going to fold more often than AA, so it's probably close.
I might have messed up with my calculations, but I can't see either calling or shoving being a good move here. That said, I wouldn't be able to work that out in the time I have at the table, so I'd probably make a bad shove here.
Though I'm never, ever calling a bet of this size (relative to the pot) with a draw.

Also, the turn call is horrible. Now it's a clear fold.


(brief outline of maths)

4.53 / (4.53 + 5.73) = 0.441520468 (required equity for =ev)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

17,820 games 0.005 secs 3,564,000 games/sec

Board: Qs 9s Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.066% 40.76% 00.30% 7264 54.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 58.934% 58.63% 00.30% 10448 54.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


---

8,910 games 0.391 secs 22,787 games/sec

Board: Qs 9s Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.334% 37.18% 00.15% 3313 13.50 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 62.666% 62.51% 00.15% 5570 13.50 { QQ+ }


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