AIEV line vs manies line in PT3/optimal poker mindset question.

Hey dudes,

Quick question. Over the last 3000 or so hands I am down 3 buy ins which isn't great but my All In EV line is 8.5 buy ins above that so AIEV wise I am up 5.5 buy ins. If I was up 5.5 BI in real moneys over 3,000 hands then I would tell myself "hells yeah, good job, well done me etc..." but EV/=real moneys.

How good an estimator of rungoodness/runbadness is the PT3 AIEV line?

Hi I wouldn't worry too much about being down 3bi's over 3k hands, you need about 20k hands to start forming judgements about your quality of play...

As for AIEV - it's not really an estimate it's one of the few stats that is more or less exact. For hands that you are ALL IN, either you call an all in before the river or you raise all in before river and get called, it will show you exactly how good/bad you're running.

It does this exactly because it works out given the probabaility of you having the best hand by the river, given the cards you and villian had when money went in, what % of the pot will you win on average? This gives it an exact number that you 'deserve' to win on average. Anything you win above this is shown as +ve aiev, and anything you lose below this, is shown as -ve aiev, so it's very accurate, as it's purely mathematical.

So... for hands where you are all in before river it's a great indicator of how good bad you're running. But bear in mind if you get AA in vs KK, and win, according to AIEV you are still *lucky* when you stack your opponent as technically you didn't deserve to win 100% of the pot. Apart from this little detail it's fairly intuitive

Cool, I figured that's what it was doing. I have resolved to take a similar approach to !luck (the one mentioned in his op (not sure if he is still posting in it but still))in that I am only going to look at my BR and PT3 graph on the Sunday of each week as that should help me to be less results oriented.

Thinking of starting an op myself as I have a few goals that I have set myself for the next few months and it seems like a good way to keep track of it and maybe get some advice from the nice people at FTR along the way.

consider this..

last session i shoved the nut flush on the turn and was called by a set, which rivered a FH.

I lost 1 and 1/2 buyins on that hand, or $15. had i won, i would have 3 buyins more than i had after that hand. so I'm currently down $15, and my ev is plus about 12.. difference is ~2.5 buyins over a single hand.. so the stat can get way out of sync over 4-5 rough hands.

likewise, if you're playing badly you can run really badly, in that you might fail to suck out on your villains many times. when this happens you will lose a substantial amount but you AIEV will gradually creep up above your winnings because you had equity in the hands but so far havent won much of it..

I'm sure you can see that this stat will take A LOT of hands to even out.. so dont pay a huge amount of attention. though you can use it as a guage of whether there may be some things to check on in your last session, as there is usually a learning curve involved in why the figure is the way it is.

pay less attention to results pay even lesser attention to aiev

What bikes said, if you don't notice/care whether you won or not after you go all-in, you've taken a step forward as a poker player. The results really don't matter if you manage your BR correctly. Just focus on playing the best you can, results be damned.