AA Pokerstove equity calculation help after the flop.

I've never really used poker stove until recently and wondered if this is how you would run this hand too.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($85.85)
UTG+1 ($4.40)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($5.80)
CO ($29)
Button ($34.15)
SB ($15.70)
Hero (BB) ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
5 folds, Button raises to $1, SB calls $0.90, Hero raises to $3.25, Button calls $2.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.50) 6, 10, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, Button raises to $16, Hero .............



On poker stove I put this dudes hands on trips and overpairs. The guy is is like 18/10/2 over 90 hands. If he was tighter I'd throw out JJ and QQ but being a tad looser I figured I'd keep those in. Am I about on the correct line of thinking with this?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.374% 58.98% 02.39% 16350 663.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 38.626% 36.23% 02.39% 10044 663.00 { 99+, 66 }

I concur.

As the villain is on the button, wouldn't suited connectors be forming part of his range as well.If hes averaging 18/10 then he could well be playing 32/20 from the button with78s,89s,T9s,JTs,QTs,ATand KT all falling into his range

Code:

---
 256  games     0.005 secs    51,200  games/sec

Board: Qs 5h 9s Qc Kc
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	22.656%  	21.48% 	01.17% 	            55 	        3.00   { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 	77.344%  	76.17% 	01.17% 	           195 	        3.00   { AsKh }


---

SB calls, BB pots, I don't think an 18/10/2 is showing up with many SCs. It's possible tho, so we could add the ones that connect with the flop to his range.

The rest of the range is kind of suspect as well...
A2o+?!
KTo+?!

You do realize we're coming up with a range after all that preflop action and then a check raise and a 3 bet AI on the flop, right?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($85.85)
UTG+1 ($4.40)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($5.80)
CO ($29)
Button ($34.15)
SB ($15.70)
Hero (BB) ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
5 folds, Button raises to $1
At this point we can use Keith's range

, SB calls $0.90, Hero raises to $3.25, Button calls $2.25, 1 fold
Now we get rid of all the really dominated stuff like Ax and Kx and possibly some SCs and small pairs (notice he's getting only slightly better than 10:1 implied).

Flop: ($7.50) 6, 10, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, Button raises to $16, Hero hesitantly shoves
At this point we can remove anything that doesn't connect with the board fairly hard. Of course there's a chance he's in there with 76s or some weird combo hand like that but I think those hands should be heavily discounted.

flop bet is toooo big gansta,

something like $4.50 is fine

Boondock!

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Boondock!

Hi long lost friend . That is 2 FTR old timers that have said hi now without one making fun of me for playing 25NL lol. That ain't too bad .

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

flop bet is toooo big gansta,

something like $4.50 is fine

So you never bet pot here? I have been wondering about that recently. Is this because if they have you beat they give it away before you are hardcore pot committed. And a bit of not scaring them away. Are you thinking one more than the other?

Even throwing in T9s and 87s to the mix, looks like with the pot odds, you'd have to throw a ton more stuff in there to ever make this a fold. He ended up having a set of Ts and on these full stack pots I lose I go back and try to think if I made the right plays or if there was statistically something there that told me to fold that I overlooked.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.447% 50.38% 02.07% 16957 696.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.553% 45.48% 02.07% 15310 696.50 { 99+, 66, T9s, 87s }

you kind of hand-cuff your opponents with such a big bet, they really only have 2 plays, all-in or fold. If you bet $4.50 or so you let them make some mistakes. I don't believe $7.25 does that.

Originally Posted by BoondockSaint

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Boondock!

Hi long lost friend . That is 2 FTR old timers that have said hi now without one making fun of me for playing 25NL lol. That ain't too bad .

You're the ultimate 25 NL grinder bro. Where's Party poker when you need it? BTW did you get like 5 Stars deposit bonuses

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Originally Posted by BoondockSaint

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Boondock!

Hi long lost friend . That is 2 FTR old timers that have said hi now without one making fun of me for playing 25NL lol. That ain't too bad .

You're the ultimate 25 NL grinder bro. Where's Party poker when you need it? BTW did you get like 5 Stars deposit bonuses

lol yeah. Though I actually heard party poker kinda sucks nowadays in terms of incentives. And I was the whore of whores when it came to incentives as you know. Actually I'm trying to figure out how in the hell to deposit on Pstars because I haven't done it since neteller. Me and my friend combined the change we had left over from back in the day and it got me to a dollar and somehow I managed to clear 3 pending bonuses and got my roll up to about 680 from that dollar (though it was at like 820 and ran into some bad hands).

Now that they are asking for social security #s and stuff for echecks I think my days of clearing my brothers bonuses for him are over since I don't think he would be comfortable with that and it doesn't seem there is any other way to deposit for USA. Ah the bonus scene is so depressing nowadays. And to think I got him to gold star in like 8 days for nothin . Guess its better I realize that now than later. Maybe this bonus will give me incentive to get platinum star on my own.

You could try debit card.

I was researching on 2+2 and it sounded like no debit cards work anymore. There is some sort of prepaid visa/mastercard that works but thats it. Well western union works but it would be like $50 plus in fees to deposit that much. Figure it might be time to stop doing that stuff anyway since my ultimate bonus search was what kept me from becoming very good at poker anyway. At least thats the excuse I tell myself

My debit card works at Player's Only/Cake as well as Absolute. Haven't tried depositing anywhere else in a while but the Echeck worked fine on stars.

My debit works at Bodog, Stars, and Full Tilt.

And it doesn't matter if it's a debit or credit card, but rather which financial institution holds the account. All major US banks will be blocked (Citi, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BoA, etc). Your best bet is to use a credit union. Since credit unions are non-profit, I don't think they are as restricted by UIGEA as the majors.

Full Tilt and Stars now have Instant eCheck, which is the easiest way to go, IMO. I hope the other sites start offering this on a regular basis.

Hm the only debit card I have is for ING which I'm guessin won't work since its a huge bank. I started the echeck process on stars and they said they will let me pool 3 deposits to get my full bonus, so that was nice of them.

I ALWAYS go all in with AA

doesn't matter, just ship it
you didn't 3b AA PF to fold it on the flop

you need to be deep to make a fold here, the SPR has to be like 15 or the guy needs to be a total nit

a lot of people play for stacks with QJ on this flop because they figure you 3b a wide range and will have to fold if you didn't hit it as hard as they did

shove!!!