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5NL FR, bcs is split pot, but i can't see folding here
main villain in BB, is 46/1.6/1.2 mega donk. he calls 37% of PFR's so his call leaves him with a huge range starting out. I have this note on him:
flat A8s IP, then bet/call CRAI on 98x w a BDFD (back door FD).
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($1)
CO ($6.02)
Button ($0.93)
Hero (SB) ($9.33)
BB ($9.15)
UTG ($1.32)
UTG+1 ($5.31)
MP1 ($5.03)
Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold
i think i should raise more here, since i'm going to be OOP against a few people that love to limp/call, so wouldn't mind discussion here but it's far from my main question
Flop: ($0.95) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks
the two villains are 46% and 37% fold to F Cbet, and i'd seen one of them call their whole stack with the nut FD, so i'm never cbetting here OOP without at least a good BDFD (and probably not even then)
Turn: ($0.95) (3 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75, 1 fold
obv. no questions here
River: ($2.45) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $5.25, Hero???
so here's where it gets interesting. once he pushes, i know that i'm winning this pot outright like 0.01% of the time, but all that dead money is worth defending here, right?
he needs any nine, JJ or AA to beat me. There are 3 combos each of AA and JJ and either way he played them like a retard. it's tough to put just how many 9's are in his range because he calls preflop with like 1/3 of ATC, so does this seem right: {97s (1), 98s (1), T9s (1), J9 (3), Q9 (4), K9 (3), A9 (2)}. anyway no matter which of those hands he may have he played it retarded. so that's 21 combos that beat me, and i see absolutely any goddamn Ax playing this hand this way given our reads, and there are well over 100 of those excluding AA and A9. so we're committed to a call here, and hell this guy's dumb enough that we might even take the pot here like one in a hundred times.
but if we're gonna call a push anyway without ever expecting to win, aren't we just better off open pushing and having all of his hundreds of Ax hands fold out and actually make profit on this hand? or, he's not a complete station, so can't we check and hope he bets with a J here (he is totally capable of doing this based on reads). thoughts?
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