those players who will call 2 barrels with mid pair (He'z on AK!) but will never call a river shove (or thoughtfully sized bet) are just asking to be exploited.

In this situation villains range is weighted so much towards those midpair hands which will very rarely call a river bet on a lot of boards and has been really profitable for me.

of course we also need reads that they're unlikely to cold call down with monsters, be tilting, or just be a total station.

thoughts and particularly opinions on how often it needs to work to be +ev (maths etc) appreciated