2nl 6m 79s OESD turn spot

Villain is 14/6 over 158 hands, 1 post flop aggression.

MP ($2)
Hero (BB) ($2.45)
UTG ($4.59)
Button ($1.84)
SB ($2.53)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 9
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.06) 10, 8, 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.04, MP raises to $0.12, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08

Turn: ($0.30) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.12

Hero is thinking about raising. Waddaya think? How much?

Thoughts about calling the flop OOP also welcome.

I like leading the flop. I'd be folding the turn though.

All the FD's villain was raising on the flop just got there, and even if villain is holding only a single diamond you have to discount 2 of your outs for a straight Jd and 6d. So you've got basically 6 outs if you hit a 7 or 9 your not going to be calling a river bet so their pretty much bricks.

against a few Flushes and a few Tx your equity is;

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,276 games 0.000 secs 255,200 games/sec

Board: Td 8s 3d Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.793% 13.79% 00.00% 176 0.00 { 9c7c }
Hand 1: 86.207% 86.21% 00.00% 1100 0.00 { Kd5d, Qd5d, Jd5d, 7d6d, QTo, JTo, T9o }


I definitely wouldn't raise here because you have little equity vs a calling range and i dont think he'll be folding many diamonds, he may fold a Ten if you raise big enough but it seems very spewy to be trying to take down limped pots by brute force.

Valid arguments about two of my outs being compromised.

However I'm pretty sure this kind of nit never raises a flush draw OTF, especially with the Ad on the board.

I'd say his range is TPTK/TPGK and sets and my impression from his turn bet size is that he is worried about this Ad.

However I don't think a raise is good. He may not be nitty enough to fold two pairs or a set.

I'd assume he open raises AJ-AK with a 6% pfr.

So i think we're rarely ever gonna see TPTK here. A2-AT suited or A9-AT off suit are far more likely. Also TT i'd think he's more likely to raise pre so that leaves 88 and 33 for sets. This doesn't really change our equity anyway;

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,056 games 0.000 secs 211,200 games/sec

Board: Td 8s 3d Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.235% 17.23% 00.00% 182 0.00 { 9c7c }
Hand 1: 82.765% 82.77% 00.00% 874 0.00 { 88, 33, ATs-A9s, ATo-A9o

Also i think he will definitely limp suited K's some of the time and could defo raise the flop with these. you might be able to bluff him off an Ace on the river if a diamond hits but when the river comes either a club/spade/heart he wont be folding his TPGK anyway so it definitely seems like a bad spot to run a bluff here. Also he will have a diamond himself a certain % of the time too.

I like where your head's at, but his range is really strong on the turn. I probably put in a raise here realizing that it's likely marginally -EV in a vacuum since you have a lot of flushes here assuming you check some of them on the turn.

flop call looks fine given he's a super passive nit who will play flush draws passively, implied odds should do the trick especially since non diamond straight cards make you a load of money all the time vs his range.

Idk about turn. Feel like he checks back hands like flop overpairs/top pairs now although I guess with this sizing they could still be in his range. I wouldn't make abig raise here and try to make him fold anything resembling a set ot AT, but I'd defo consider making it like 2.5x giving yourself a good price to get him to fold weaker stuff. If he bets any bigger than this I'd fold pretty happily as that stuff would almost certainly be gone from his range.

Seven-deuce I don't get your range. OK yes he would raise AK-AQ, but he does not raise here, he limps preflop. I'd say AT and KTs are in his open limping range, even UTG as he does not seem positionally aware, so TPTK and TPGK are in his range OTF (although personally I don't think I'd raise TPTK on this flop if it was me in his position). Also why do you have A9 in his range? Why would he raise A9 OTF? I would agree with {AT, KTs, 88, 33} for a flop raising range as he would probably raise TT pre.

Carroters I am not sure if he checks back pairs OTT. He might though, and I probably would if I were him, but he may be worried about giving a free card and having a fourth diamond pop OTR.

As Spoon said, all this makes his turn range really strong (mostly two pairs and sets). I did not realize this during play, though, so I did raise small (probably too small? I wanted to make it half pot, should have been $0.39 but the Party Poker buttons keep messing up my sizings):

Turn: ($0.30) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.12, Hero raises to $0.32, MP calls $0.20

Now how do you play:
a) a non diamond river that does not complete the straight
b) a non diamond river that does complete the straight
c) a diamond river that does not complete the straight
d) a diamond river that completes the straight

Another possible bluffing line OTT would be to lead. Do you think that it would be better? If I really had a small flush OTT, that is probably what I would do. Also if I check the turn and he bets big, I pretty much have to fold. The reason I checked in the first place was that I was hoping for a check back and a free card.

As played, do you ever fold to his $0.12 bet? If you call and the river is a brick or a diamond, do you ever bluff lead the river?

I'm folding to the flop raise.

When he raises the flop after limping pre-, a nit like this is likely to have a set. And at this level, nits with sets tend to be reluctant to fold. Calling his flop raise isn't the worst play ever, but it does look like there will be many times that if you call, you won't get to see the river, so that's a consideration re. the odds of drawing out. So folding seems alright too.

Lacking a particular read on this nit, I don't think he's all that likely to fold to a turn check-raise. So I probably check-fold. Or maybe lead small trying to block bet.