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25nl turn it into a bluff vs fish?

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  1. #1
    rpm's Avatar
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    Default 25nl turn it into a bluff vs fish?

    villain is 65/0 over 50ish. he limp/calls any two suited pre. has folded to 2/7 cbets and dumped his hand on later streets a lot of the time he's called. the rest of the table are nit regs. i feel he's getting to the river with a heap of hands like mine - missed pair+draws, 8x, 7x etc - and not many J's or Q's. turn it into a bluff or check it back?

    PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    SB: $17.34
    BB: $25.06
    Hero (UTG): $55.45
    MP: $25.00
    CO: $15.62
    BTN: $25.05

    SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 7 T

    Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.65, fold

    Flop: ($1.75, 2 players) 4 7 8
    SB checks, Hero bets $1.30, SB calls $1.30

    Turn: ($4.35, 2 players) Q
    SB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB calls $2.10

    River: ($8.55, 2 players) J
    SB checks, Hero?

    edit, also what do we think of turn bet? i would bet like $3 on it with air and expect villain to fold a lot of the time given what i've seen of him. on this occasion i decided to bet smaller for thinnish value and to build a pot to own him on appropriate rivers, bad logic?

    Last edited by rpm; 08-06-2012 at 08:56 AM.
  2. #2
    Turn bet is a vbet, right? Why are we turning our hand into a bluff now? I'm confused.

    I like the turn bet and sizing, btw. I think we have better than 50% equity against his calling range given reads. Don't know why we feel like turning our hand into a bluff now that we still have a TON of show down value.
  3. #3
    Would check and take it down vs missed draws, if he has a made hand like 8x and called 2 then based on your reads he isn't folding to 3.

    I like the turn bet.
  4. #4
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Turn bet is what I had in mind; it's nice to see confirmation of my opinion.

    Without a read that Villain makes 'hero-calls', there is no hand that calls a bet that loses on the river.
  5. #5
    rpm's Avatar
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    y'all make good points about how little sense "bluffing" the river makes if the turn bet was for value. tbh i wasn't sure if i was "value betting" in the strict sense of the word on the turn. however it felt like i would have had close to 50% give or take and if the fact that heaps of rivers improve my hand and i'm IP vs a fish seemed to make it a bet, if not strictly +EV as a value bet in a vacuum
  6. #6
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    check river
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    nice hand

    of the hands he might have that beat yours, which will he fold to a river bet?
    Last edited by daven; 08-06-2012 at 08:53 PM.

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