25nl river trips vs nit

villain is 6/6/13 (VP/PFR/3b) over 18. i flat pre because his range is strong, i have position, and i want to keep what, if any, worse aces and kings in his range instead of bloating and felting vs QQ+,AK.

flop i bet because i might get folds from AK, small pairs, random air with equity. don't know what his actual range is here.

turn i bet because i would bluff that card but in hindsight he probably never calls with worse or has more than 2 outs worth of suckout equity

river plan? if you bet, how much, and what do you do if he jams? note we have only slightly more than pot on the river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($9.12)
CO ($8.11)
Hero (Button) ($30.86)
SB ($85.52)
BB ($25.50)
UTG ($57.64)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
3 folds, Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.10) Q, 8, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($8.10) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.25, BB calls $4.25

River: ($16.60) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?

I'm struggling to guess what's his range for check/calling 2 streets here. Maybe AK (3 combos), JJ (6) or slowplayed QQ (3)?

Possibly bet $5 to get value from JJ, don't know what to do if he jams though. Checking gives us some valuable info on his thought process.

Hmm, at first I was thinking just fold to the 3bet pre, but sample is so small that I don't think we can fold AK in position here. If sample was like 200+, then I'd find a fold.

I think I'm gonna check river behind, I don't see JJ calling turn, let alone river. Can he have KK or KQs here? I guess so, he's played three orbits so it's entirely possible he's just been dealt crap in that time and has found a 3bet with KQs, or maybe a retarded flop c/c with KK. If I found a bet then I'd fire like $7, but I hate being raised. Value is thin imo so I'd likely check and make a note about his 3bet, which helps us to play our buttons with more info.

I'd probably do what hoopy said. lol @ ever folding to a 3b pre. this is his 2nd 3b in 18 hands. I highly doubt he is a "nit" despite his vpip/pfr but ofcourse I will be a little bit weary until I see him open raise a few more hands.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Hmm, at first I was thinking just fold to the 3bet pre, but sample is so small that I don't think we can fold AK in position here. If sample was like 200+, then I'd find a fold.

I think I'm gonna check river behind, I don't see JJ calling turn, let alone river. Can he have KK or KQs here? I guess so, he's played three orbits so it's entirely possible he's just been dealt crap in that time and has found a 3bet with KQs, or maybe a retarded flop c/c with KK. If I found a bet then I'd fire like $7, but I hate being raised. Value is thin imo so I'd likely check and make a note about his 3bet, which helps us to play our buttons with more info.

Exactly, if you bet river its thin, I would check back river and note. His 3b is 13% is he defending his blind with other 3bs? If so I think he could have qq -99 here, some Ax, maybe even AQ. I think checking back is better for sure.

The fact that this is button vs blind opens his range up somewhat. He could have AT+, 88+ KQ, JQ. His stats come from such a small sample that although I'd assume he is tightish pre, I wouldn't bank on it and it says very little about his post flop style. I'm betting $8 and calling a shove and I'm quite happy about it.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

lol @ ever folding to a 3b pre.

If villain is showing these stats after 200+ hands, surely AK isn't good? I'm obviously not folding this spot pre because we have 18 hands, not 200+.

you'd be more right if he was 3betting from the SB vs. a full EP raise, but we min-raised the button, his range is wider than you think.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Hmm, at first I was thinking just fold to the 3bet pre

i wouldn't do this if i had 3x'd the button and the sample was 100 hands. remember that AK is 40% vs QQ+,AK (his range is almost certainly wider than this). couple that with positional and skill advantages and being able to play near-perfectly against him. folding AK pre here seems absurd to me imo

It's not that hard to get 17 crappy hands in 18. River seems like an obvious bet.

I'm confused:
How can a player be 6/6/13 ?
VPIP must be higher than PFR, since you can't PFR without VPIP, but you can VPIP without PFR.
How can you 3-bet more than twice as often as you PFR? Once again, you can't 3-bet w/o PFR (a 3-bet IS a PFR), but you can PFR w/o 3-betting.

Sorry if this is a dumb question.

If everyone open folds to you 20 times and you raise once your VPIP is 5%, if you face a raise in front 8 times and raise it once your 3b is 13% but this was the only raise he made so his pfr is 6%. Pretty obv no?

Why is everyone betting the river but not sizing it? Are you guys just minbetting or ???

3bet% is based on the # of opportunities to 3bet. unraised pots don't count towards your 3bet% for obvious reasons.

This is a good example of how over 18 hands, we can't deduce too much about 'taggs', except that their stats will almost certainly converge to something reggish looking. might be 13/11, might be 21/18, we don't know yet. We can almost certainly say he's not a fish. Note that loose fish playing more hands, we can say more about them in 18 hands because they provide more opportunities to give up information that's reflected in stats.

You should think through your betsizing and how to set up a smooth river shove. I'd bet something like 2.50 - 6.50 - all in (~14).

I would also gladly 4b/call preflop, 18 hands is nothing, the only thing you know is that he most likely isn't a mad loose fish. He can be anything from a 4/4 running hot or 32/24 running carddead.