25nl: King high flush facing rvr jam, paired board

[The Bean Counter]

This is a pretty clear fold, right?

My thinking was that villain conceivably plays flopped sets and turned boats/quads this way and I don't see any flush draws in villains range beyond maybe 89hh and AQhh (and he may not even jam these on this board facing action - likewise Tx).

Villain doesn't seem particularly good and running at 31/22/7 (3b) over 400 hands. Flop and turn fold stats are in the 65%-70% range and villain isn't aggressive in terms of raising cbets. I've also seen villain check down a broadway board in position with initiative so I think he is fairly passive. This is the first time that villain has faced a river cbet.

Also grateful for guidance on sizing.

Hero (UTG) ($41.01)
MP ($44.63)
Button ($26.49)
SB ($24.21)
BB ($16.87)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, K
Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) J, 10, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, Button calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, Button calls $2.50

River: ($9.35) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, Button raises $21.99 (All-In)

[daviddem]

Sizing maybe slightly bigger otf but otherwise I think it's fine.

Do you open 3x pre from all positions?

River meh, other than your river sizing he has no reason to put you on a flush and he only needs to be doing that with 7 or 8 combos of trips or 8h9h for a call to be breakeven. But since you bet 50-65% on flop and turn and closer to pot on river, this should give him reason to be worried about a flush if he has trips. Also he'll sometimes raise trips ott.

[kickass]

I think I call. I'm not psyched but I don't think we can fold a hand this strong. Surly villain can be doing this with worse for value or with some missed draws as well as his boats and quads. Seems like a great place to bluff to me, I'd prolly consider turning a jack into a bluff here. Sucks that you think villain sucks.

[daviddem]

True it's also a spot to bluff, but if I were villain I probably wouldn't do it given hero's river sizing and the good odds hero has to call. I'd certainly not do it without holding the Ah.

[kickass]

I don't think the nut flysh blocker matters that much, I wouldn't be trying to fold out a flush. Put an overpair in Hero's hand he prolly plays it the same (you might be right about Hero's sizing for river) if you feel you rep a flush here and villain won't try to raise 10x/flushes them fine go ahead and fold.

[daviddem]

You're not trying to fold out a flush, but you having the Ah means that hero is much less likely to have one and call.

[kickass]

hero doesnt actually have that many AhXh hands in his range mebbe 3.
having the Ah defo would help sway me to bluffing this river but i dont think id need it; hearts was a backdoor the likelyhood of hero having hearts is small.
its pretty obv by river that; vs heros range id be crushed with only a jack so bluffing time as the only hands id get to the river with are Jx QQ+ 10x boats quads and flushes. QKs and 89s prolly would also be in my bluffing range (as hero gave us a pretty great price on turn) but thats not a whole lotta combos.

that all said hero should bet/fold a little more on turn mebbe 3.1-3.3. mebbe even more

btw im smashed

[kmind]

I'd bet/fold river but I haven't played in forever. If 25NL players are good enough to bluff raise here then fuck

[supa]

If 25NL players are good enough to bluff raise here then fuck

Amen brother.

[kickass]

lol this is not party poker 2002

[kickass]

do you bet/fld the nut flush too what about 66