25nl 6m hero call vs loose reg

villain is 23/20/8 38% ATS over 110. western european (german maybe?) if i recall correctly. 60% fold to 3b, 50% fold to CB.

his hud would show me as something like 34/31/7 with 80+ CB over our 110 hands.

in a previous hand this session he opened the CO, a good high-volume south american reg called the BU, i 3b JTs from SB, both called and we went to a T8xr flop 3-way. i CB slightly more than 1/2P, villain called, BU folded. turn bricked with slightly less than pot in the effectives and i check/called his shove. he showed AQ high, didn't improve and i won the pot.

i doubt he will look to value bet me thinly OTR here, probably with 5x at worst. so his value range i expect to be like 12-15 combos at most. fwiw his river timing was quite fast after i checked

like it? hate it? close?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($28.49)
MP ($33.27)
Button ($35.60)
SB ($25.10)
Hero (BB) ($59.16)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
2 folds, Button bets $0.62, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.40, Button calls $1.78

Flop: ($4.90) 5, 3, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button calls $2

Turn: ($8.90) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.75, Button calls $4.75

River: ($18.40) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $12.29, Hero calls $12.29

Total pot: $42.98 | Rake: $1.93

I don't much like it - I think the board is too dry for him to have worse that he bluffs the river with very often - that said, he's not shown a lot of strength, so most of the weak made hands with showdown value that he could call down with I'd expect to check behind on the river, which leads me to like it a little more - I'm just not sure I can construct a wide enough range of draws he's chasing to make it worth looking up the river.

no

Man I used to do this all the time when I played.

I'll go ahead and quote M2M now and say "no".

Calling this has the potential to make villain think we are calling very light on river, which means he widens his river value range. If we adjust correctly to this, making this -ev call might result in a +ev result.

So I don't hate it. And it feels goddam good when we make sick hero calls like this and we're right.

Never sure about cbetting in 3bet pots, do it less than in single raised pots right?

I don't think betting turn will do much besides take him off pure floats, AQ/AJ floats may call again. From your history with him I can't see him folding any pair on this turn. If we cbet flop then c/c turn we get value from his floats but it seems marginal with stacks deep. c/f is probably fine.

No idea about river, hero calls generally aren't great at micros though.

My cbet stat in 3bet pots is much higher than standard open pots.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

no

.

this nit folds cos i don't think you're good even the required 30-ish%