25NL: 2 hands, same vill (tl;dr)

Villain is 65/56/6.0 but only over 20 hands, so not much to gather from that.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Toujan ($26.99)
UTG+1 The_Will_Bear ($24.65)
CO i6o666 ($9)
BTN Hero ($25)
SB heathbell13 ($25)
BB EhDePoopy ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.60, 6 players) Hero is BTN
[i6o666 posts $0.25]
Toujan raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.60, 2 players)
Toujan bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($6.60, 2 players)
Toujan bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($14.60, 2 players)
Toujan bets $7.75, Hero folds

Final Pot: $22.35



Ok so looking back at this hand I actually think its a call here. we're getting 3:1 so need to be good about 25% of the time I think. At the tables I didn't really realize how small his bet was. I remember thinking I was getting 3:1 but I didn't connect that to how much equity we need and I didn't realize he only bet 1/2 pot (which makes me want to call more). Clearly I need to work on just slowing down in big pots and really analyzing all the pieces of info.

I stoved a couple different ranges for him on the river and basically the decision comes down to whether or not you think he would raise KJo/KJs UTG, whether you think he can bet 3 streets with a J, and whether or not you think there are bluffs in his range.

With just KJs in his range and no bluffs we have 15% equity vs a range of AJ, some flushes, 88, JJ+, 98s, 87s

If you include just KJo and no bluffs then we have 29% equity.

If you include no KJo but add 6 combos of bluffs then we have 29% equity

vs some random unknown I don't know if I should even give him credit for being able to value bet KJ here. Once we call twice on this board he's got to be a little worried imo. So maybe the value portion of the range I gave him is too wide. Do you guys think he would c/c AJ, KJ on the river rather than bet it himself?



This hand comes along pretty much like 3 hands later.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG heathbell13 ($25.35)
UTG+1 EhDePoopy ($24.65)
CO Toujan ($34.71)
BTN The_Will_Bear ($24.30)
SB i6o666 ($8.50)
BB Hero ($25.35)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, Toujan raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60, 2 players)
Hero checks, Toujan bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.10, 2 players)
Hero checks, Toujan bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25

River: ($10.60, 2 players)
Hero checks, Toujan bets $8.25, Hero ???

I folded the last hand so I'm really having a hard time giving him any kind of credit here. My thought process was basically, "he just triple barreled me and he has tard stats so I don't really want to fold TP here" Like he could be one of the guys who will just spew for 20 min until he's broke and I don't want to miss my chance at getting his money when I have TP right now. Should I just fold this?

hand 1

wow i would make his range A LOT wider hes gonna have a shit ton more 8x and a shit ton more Jx (hes a fucking 65/56 for christ sake obviously hes aggressive as shit and obviously you can call here profitably. I wouldnt be suprised to see him show up with TT here.

Hand 2-

A little trickier, his bet is a lot bigger in relation to the pot so we are going to have to be better here than before. Now all the worse jacks that were doing this in the last hand are mostly better aces and Qx...i think the river is a fold

I dont think you can really base your decision on his stats since its only 20 hands and I could run 60/50 over 20 hands easily.

The reason I think his range is pretty narrow in H1 is that we call twice on paired and 3 to flush board. Against most people at 25nl this would slow them down.

Could def be wrong here tho, would like to get some more responses.

Originally Posted by kfaess

I dont think you can really base your decision on his stats since its only 20 hands and I could run 60/50 over 20 hands easily.

The reason I think his range is pretty narrow in H1 is that we call twice on paired and 3 to flush board. Against most people at 25nl this would slow them down.

Could def be wrong here tho, would like to get some more responses.

lol well all we have to base our decision off of is stats and reads and you havent given us any reads and he has retarded stats so....with a 65/50 odds are he has gone to showdown before so i usually hit time bank and scroll through past hands and look and see what hes shown down and how big the pot was.

H1 - never fold this river. Like philly said he canhave worse jacks he doesn't really know what to do with and yeah shit like TT random pairs and even bluffs. Yes it's only 20 hands but I rarely run 60/55 over 20 hands, so it is somewhat likely he's a loose tard, this is also enforced by his river sizing. We're good closer to 50% of the time nevermind 25%.

H2 - Meh I'm okay with preflop, I'd go ahead and fold river here, his sizing is actually scarier here and all you have is a bluff catcher. The problem with having a bluff catcher here is that a lot of his range has at least some sd value, like Tx 9x, most Ks and Js he's likely opening. even shit like 66-99 he might not feel like he needs to bluff with. The only combos of bluffs are like suited middling cards and baby pairs, defo not enough of these to call river.

true yea thats a good point. lol im gonna have to start doing that.

so if you see a hh where he's bluffing do these become auto calls then?

EDIT: in after carrotz, this was response to philly

Hand 2 is rarely ever an auto call even if you scroll through and see one bluff from him.