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10NL - straight on flushy table

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  1. #1

    Default 10NL - straight on flushy table

    Hi guys! Been away for ages and now back at the tables. I thought I'd take a stab at 10NL and this is one of the hands that came up.

    aguara was 49/13 over 72 hands; selfless 12/4 over 14 hands


    $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
    6 Players


    Stacks:
    UTG aguara1982 ($5.46)
    UTG+1 Vendetta959 ($10)
    CO 3anzai ($5.86)
    BTN selflessness ($13.79)
    SB Petulie ($10)
    BB BarãoBC ($10)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Petulie is SB
    aguara1982 calls $0.10, 2 folds, selflessness calls $0.10, Petulie raises to $0.45, 1 fold, aguara1982 calls $0.35, selflessness calls $0.35

    Std iso. Not sure if this is right, but I was opening 2.5x in BU and SB and 3x everywhere else, so with two limpers and being oop, I probably should have raised to $0.55.


    Flop: ($1.45, 3 players)
    Petulie bets $0.93, aguara1982 folds, selflessness calls $0.93

    This bit is pretty dodge. At the time I figured that I wanted to be in this hand and I would be much less comfortable calling a bet than making one, so I lead with th intention of folding to a raise. Off the tables I realise this wasn't such a great idea being oop in a multiway pot with just a gutshot. What's the best line here? I'm sure the first thing you'll ask for is ranges: aguara limps a mega wide range, and I'm guessing selfless has { 22+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs+, ATo+, KJo+ } - is this a suitable range for a 12/4 nit?


    Turn: ($3.31, 2 players)
    Petulie bets $2.60, selflessness calls $2.60

    Hit my king, woo! Value bet. How is sizing? I'm thinking get my stack in over these two streets. Should I worry about the flush?


    River: ($8.51, 2 players)
    Petulie goes all-in $6.02, selflessness calls $6.02


    Looking forward to your feedback.
  2. #2
    I think preflop iso is fine, could be bigger, but I wouldn't really iso with that hand from SB if fish didn't open limp.
    You can't yet say for sure selfless is a nit since you have only 14 hands on him, but i suppose you have put him on a good range.
    Flop seems pretty awful because it hits huge chunk of villains range plus flush draws. I would probably check/fold here.
    But, as played, I think turn bet is fine. And after all, if we assume villain is kinda nitty, we can put him on very few flush hands here: AT, T9, A9, maaaaaybe some weaker Axs. So therefore I feel river jam is good, since there are lot more hands he might pay you with (mostly consisting of twopair).
  3. #3
    Iso needs to be bigger ($0.6) since we're out of position and want to charge these guys but it's not a huge deal. This flop hits their ranges (middling broadways like JTo and stuff like T9s and clubs). Probably best to c/f vs 2 people, if we had the Ac I don't mind betting so much.

    Rest is good.
  4. #4
    Thanks guys, what you say totally makes sense. c/f does look to be the best option.

    While I put villain on a range I didn't think of it in terms of the flop so I've tried to work this out in terms of combos - please correct me if I'm wrong!

    22+ = 78 combos
    A7s+ (not incl AA) = 28 combos
    KT-KQs = 12 combos
    QTs, QJs = 8 combos
    JTs = 4 combos
    ATo+ (not incl AA) = 12 combos
    KJo, KQo = 6 combos

    This makes 148 combos total in villain's range.

    Now the part of villain's range that hits the flop:

    22, JJ, QQ = 18 combos
    JTs+ = 16 combos
    QTs+ (not incl QJ) = 12 combos
    AJo, AQo, KJo, KQo = 12 combos
    A7cc = 5 combos

    So that's 63/148 combos that hit = 43% given I've put villain on an accurate range.

    I know you can determine whether or not to call a bet based on pot odds/equity, but how about whether or not to place a bet? Is there a guideline where say flop hits <X% of villain's range is safe to bet? Maybe a silly question but I thought it was worth asking...
  5. #5
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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Petulie View Post
    I know you can determine whether or not to call a bet based on pot odds/equity, but how about whether or not to place a bet? Is there a guideline where say flop hits <X% of villain's range is safe to bet? Maybe a silly question but I thought it was worth asking...
    You can do that, if you know that villain is capable of putting you on a range. So you can pretty much forget about it in these stakes, except vs some regs maybe.
    Basically, you determine your range as percieved by villain and according to that you either, check/fold, check/call, bet, check/raise or check/raise as a bluff.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post
    std on every street wp
    So you're not agreeing that c/f might be better than cbet :S
    we have to c/f SO many turn cards...
    Last edited by The Edlets; 08-05-2011 at 06:59 PM.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by The Edlets View Post
    So you're not agreeing that c/f might be better than cbet :S
    we have to c/f SO many turn cards...
    Taking a wild guess (and someone please tell me if this thinking is wrong) but with the hand in question, pre action and trying to isolate then that only really leads into making a C-bet. Otherwise what was the intention of trying to isolate OOP with ATo vs a pre-raiser? That's my thinking on why a C-Bet seems a better choice than a C/F in relation to what has been said pre-flop.
  9. #9
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    I check flop b/c it prob hits aguara's range hard.
    As played I like the turn and river; prob not a lot of flushes in villain's 12/4 range
  10. #10
    Looks really good, *proud*. I'd Iso a bit bigger though yeah.

    Why are you opening 2.5x on the BU btw? I'd only do this if you have regs who are decent and are 3 betting decently wide or nits in the blinds. Otherwise 3xing is likely better against weak non aggro regs and fish since we just get more money in the pot IP vs weak players and that's obv +EV. You probably have reasons for that, but just checking!

    C-betting here is actually better than it first looks for 2 reasons.

    1. The nit's range is very pocket pair heavy and these guys tend to fold a load of the broadway combos that hit this board.

    2. The fish's range is just so wide that it's impossible for him to hit this board often enough to make your c-bet bad.

    Turn and river are gold stars..

    Oh and your range for selfless is way too wide!

    In response to your question about how we determine whether we can c-bet you're on the right track with that combination work. If we bet .93/1.45 and have 0 equity/chance of winning the pot when called whatsoever we'd need villains to both fold .93/1.45+0.93 % of the time or 39% to break even. Then you just have to estimate how much your overcard and gutshot improve that, so in this hand I'd say the c-bets defo fine given their ranges. Like sure the fish has loads of combos that hit this flop, but he has even more that don't.
  11. #11
    Oh wow, so chuffed I made the right play! I was really in doubt. Thanks so much for the feedback everyone

    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    Why are you opening 2.5x on the BU btw?
    I was a little naughty and took an early shot at 10NL when I had just 20BIs, so there was some kind of silly reasoning like "if I open smaller I'll lose less monies". Also, I know at higher stakes people tend to 3x open rather than 4x due to increased aggression and 3betting, so I thought well if I'm 3x'ing in early position, then probably 2.5x in later. From what I've experienced so far, 10NL isn't much different to 5NL (in fact it felt fishier, but that may have just been lucky table selection!) so yea 3x'ing on the BU sounds best.

    My range for selfless is indeed too wide. I put it into my phone's version of stove and that was 15% rather than 12%, so I can take out some of the offsuit combos which also reduces the number that hit this board.

    I was quite surprised nits would fold some of the broadways that hit. On the turn, yes, I can see they would be folding say JTs but wouldn't they at least peel one street?

    Finally, I knew there was some kinda guideline as to placing bets, I'd just forgotten! Thanks Carrots So going by that calculation, a hpsb needs to work 33%; 3/4psb needs to work 43%; and psb needs to work 50% of the time...right?

    Cheers for all the help guys!
  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Petulie View Post
    so I thought well if I'm 3x'ing in early position, then probably 2.5x in later. From what I've experienced so far, 10NL isn't much different to 5NL (in fact it felt fishier, but that may have just been lucky table selection!)
    Not much difference at all between 5nl and 10nl. I like to go to about 4xbb opens in lp (or whenever a whale is on the bb and I want to play a hand vs him or her) to get more $$ in the pot and worse odds for the blinds to call.
  13. #13
    Just to clarify: I didn't mean the nit would fold broadway combos after he flops a pair, I meant that he doesn't have these in his range in the first place since he'll fold stuff like QJo JTo KJo KTo a lot preflop.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Petulie View Post
    Finally, I knew there was some kinda guideline as to placing bets, I'd just forgotten! Thanks Carrots So going by that calculation, a hpsb needs to work 33%; 3/4psb needs to work 43%; and psb needs to work 50% of the time...right?!
    Bingo.
  15. #15
    Also regarding the nit's 12% VPIP, you have to remember that he likely limps/completes from the sb etc etc way more hands than he calls to a raise. So he wont have as much as 12% of hands in his range for calling your open. The VPIP of 12 just means that overall he enters the pot with 12% of hands. His range for calling in a raised pot will be significantly tighter than 12% of hands.
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    Also regarding the nit's 12% VPIP, you have to remember that he likely limps/completes from the sb etc etc way more hands than he calls to a raise. So he wont have as much as 12% of hands in his range for calling your open. The VPIP of 12 just means that overall he enters the pot with 12% of hands. His range for calling in a raised pot will be significantly tighter than 12% of hands.
    Too true, that's an excellent point I had overlooked. I was only considering his limping range and didn't narrow it down when he called my raise.
  17. #17
    So went Mr. 12/4 calls my iso, is it accurate to narrow him down to PPs and AK given how tight his PFR is?
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Petulie View Post
    So went Mr. 12/4 calls my iso, is it accurate to narrow him down to PPs and AK given how tight his PFR is?
    After a chat with the carrot man I realise this is not the case.

    He'll likely raise QQ+ and AK, so limp along/calling range is more likely 22-JJ (although JJ may also induce a raise rather than just limp along?), AJs, AQs, KQs. Maybe QJs and JTs but less likely.
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  20. #20
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    looks good to me. pre should be a bit bigger, as has been mentioned. i really like your turn/river sizing. nh
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post

    C-betting here is actually better than it first looks for 2 reasons.

    1. The nit's range is very pocket pair heavy and these guys tend to fold a load of the broadway combos that hit this board.

    2. The fish's range is just so wide that it's impossible for him to hit this board often enough to make your c-bet bad.
    Sure, pocket pairs will fold. Broadway combos? no J/Q combo will fold, we probably assume AK will raise and will probably call flop, so will A10... so actually every broadway combo calls? :L. Didn t we discuss this hits his range a lot?
    I d be happy cbetting IP probably, OOP we just c/f lots of turns even when he calls with hands like J10 on the flop and gets to showdown.
  22. #22
    Fold pre
  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Symphonious View Post
    Fold pre
    this
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Symphonious View Post
    Fold pre
    Decent hand vs weak ass limping ranges? Nah.
  25. #25
    Did villain show up with KhJc?
  26. #26
    What if villian is a calling station? He calls the flop with any pocket pair and we just c/f every frther street. lets say he checks back river after we brick and wakes up with 55 we look dumb
  27. #27
    We have no evidence that he's retarded enough to call 55 on the flop. Firing multiple barrels on blanks here is gonna suck, our c bet has enough immediate fold equity + pot equity to be okay.
  28. #28
    Exactly, so against unknowns I would not be squeezing A10o OOP as we don t know how he will play postflop at all. Why not study the table/player and find big exploitable leaks which will be far more profitable. I guess we are both right to a certain extent... calling would be OK, raising is OK but it doesn't suit my micro play style, I guess there are arguments for folding and Cbet is not really that good or really too bad and obv turn and river were flawless as played.
  29. #29
    If you fold AT here preflop vs a whale like this you are literally setting money on fire. He calls with so much dominated shit that will pay 3 streets with it hits a decent pair, and will fold to c bets on sooo many boards when he misses given his lol wide range. Come on guys, seriously???

    You are printing money by isoing here.
  30. #30
    Also it's a gigantic mistake to sit and study the table when you crush a terrible players continuing range preflop. You have to be pretty dumb to not already know with great accuracy how to exploit this guy. Here's a clue: Value bet loads and C-bet loads.
  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    If you fold AT here preflop vs a whale like this you are literally setting money on fire. He calls with so much dominated shit that will pay 3 streets with it hits a decent pair, and will fold to c bets on sooo many boards when he misses given his lol wide range. Come on guys, seriously???

    You are printing money by isoing here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    Also it's a gigantic mistake to sit and study the table when you crush a terrible players continuing range preflop. You have to be pretty dumb to not already know with great accuracy how to exploit this guy. Here's a clue: Value bet loads and C-bet loads.
    .
  32. #32
    Wow so 1 minute he s a whale after 14hands that will call us down 3 streets then he will fold to cbets a lot? lolol
  33. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by The Edlets View Post
    Wow so 1 minute he s a whale after 14hands that will call us down 3 streets then he will fold to cbets a lot? lolol
    Obv he's referring to the 49/13. Iso gets the nit to fold most of the time, esp when sized correctly, leaving you to harvest whale's monies.
  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by The Edlets View Post
    Wow so 1 minute he s a whale after 14hands that will call us down 3 streets then he will fold to cbets a lot? lolol
    You miss understand. Whales like this have two common tendencies. They play a very wide range and they are stationy when they flop decently.

    Because he plays such a wide range, he misses the flop completely a huge amount of the time - this is where the fold equity for our c-bets comes from.

    When he DOES actually connect reasonably with a flop, he will be stationy and this is where the value comes from when we flop a value hand.

    Both of these things are commonly and easily true at the same time, there is no contradiction, just a recipe for a very profitably strategy vs him which consists of c betting flops very wide to fold out all his air/very weak hands and then giving up without a value hand when he continues. We exploit the first tendency on the flop, then the 2nd tendency by adjusting our betting frequencies on later streets to be value orientated. Hopefully that clears up this illusion of the contradiction you're getting.
  35. #35
    And yeah i wasn't referring to the 12/4 as a whale. He's the nit. Like Petulie says, It's the whale you're trying to isolate and value bet the shit out of.
  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    And yeah i wasn't referring to the 12/4 as a whale. He's the nit. Like Petulie says, It's the whale you're trying to isolate and value bet the shit out of.
    Is 12 hands really enough to tag someone as a nit? Maybe he is a lag getting some awful hands?
  37. #37
    wait so wtf this hand isn t being played against the 12/4?
  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Edlets View Post
    wait so wtf this hand isn t being played against the 12/4?
    re-read Carroters last 2 posts. This hand wound up being played against the nit but the original intent was to iso the whale.
  39. #39
    looks fine, wp
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  40. #40
    Sigh guys, this discussion is getting old. Quit nitpicking useless information out of context just to try and make yourselves look right while refusing to actually understand the explanations provided. Come on now.

    And Alexos, thank you.
  41. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Petulie View Post
    Sigh guys, this discussion is getting old. Quit nitpicking useless information out of context just to try and make yourselves look right while refusing to actually understand the explanations provided. Come on now.

    And Alexos, thank you.
    This. Think we've covered what matters and can ignore the rabble of hurt egos. 12/4 over 14 hands, meh, if he's limping I think it's pretty likely he's a passive tighter player even over this sample. The reason for this is that limping and 12/4 means 2 things:

    1. He's not a reg, nor tag etc

    2. He's not a spazz whale limping anything suited etc most likely

    So we can conclude he's likely a tighter passive. True stats might range anywhere from 8/2 - 20/8 but most likely hell fall into this bracket.
  42. #42
    He could also be a tag thats limping some implied odds hand but if thats the casde he misses this flop even more frequently DUCY

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