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Prolly should have done this in the OP but will do it now instead, his range pre, we'll give him the top 40% of hands, idk if it should be wider or tighter than this.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
827,042,832 games 1.346 secs 614,444,897 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.749% 46.08% 01.67% 381103894 13803156.50 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A3o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o }
Hand 1: 52.251% 50.58% 01.67% 418332625 13803156.50 { KhTh }
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So if I cbet flop his range changes, he continues with 30%, this is giving him all gutters and all Ax hands, and every pair.
Board: 7c 6h 4s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.089% 70.79% 01.30% 233364 4291.00 { 44+, A2s+, K8s-K2s, Q8s-Q4s, J8s-J7s, T8s-T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A3o+, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o }
Hand 1: 27.911% 26.61% 01.30% 87724 4291.00 { KhTh }
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EV= FE(amount we win) + equity(1-F)(amount we win) - his equity(1-F)amount we lose
= .25(2.85) + .28(.75)(4.27) - .72(.75)(1.42)
= .71 + .90 - .76
= +.85
So our cbet is +ev, even if he never folds a single pair, draw or Ahi, which he obv sometiems will.
Now the turn barrel, at this stage I believe he folds all Ax, most gutters and some of his weaker pairs, which leaves him w/18% of hands.
Board: 7c 6h 4s Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.216% 87.22% 00.00% 6754 0.00 { 44+, A7s-A5s, K7s-K5s, Q8s-Q4s, J7s, T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A7o-A5o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 12.784% 12.78% 00.00% 990 0.00 { KhTh }
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EV= FE(amount we win) + equity(1-F)amount we win - his equity(1-F)amount we lose
= .4(5.69) + .12(.6)(8.53) - .87(.6)(2.84)
= 2.27 + .61 - 1.48
= 1.40
So my turn brl is +ev if he folds Ax, some gutters and some crap pairs. Even if this assumption is wrong, he still folds some broadways that he floated flop with, which I havn't accoutned for, so that should balance enough that this bet is +ev imo.
Then on the river...
171 games 0.005 secs 34,200 games/sec
Board: 7c 6h 4s Qc Kh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.731% 25.73% 00.00% 44 0.00 { 44+, A7s-A5s, K7s-K5s, Q8s-Q4s, J7s, T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A7o-A5o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 74.269% 74.27% 00.00% 127 0.00 { KsTs }
we just have the best hand super often, so we vbet.
Someone can say 'ya, we have the best hand, but he never calls with worse'
I'm not gonna claim to understand this, coz I don't, but I've seen a cpl of 1knl+ regs saying that when we have the best hand so often we need to be betting, as in if it's close to 0ev between checking and betting, betting is better.
I'm pretty sure m2m said this somewhere, maybe someone who's better than me could explain it?
anyway, thats my analysis, if any of my calcs are fundamentally wrong i'm gonna look and feel like a complete idiot.
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