10NL BB flush vs UTG shove

No real info on this villain. This table was fairly quiet, and I had just finished with a fish on another table who kept calling me down to the river with any pair, then reloading when I stacked him.

Bovada 10NL 6-max

UTG ($10.56)
UTG+1 ($9.15)
MP ($15.89)
BU ($10.11)
SB ($3.11)
HERO (BB) ($11.05)

Hero is dealt 9 10

UTG raises $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.30

Flop:

4 7 Q

[This looks like a good semi-bluffing opportunity to me. UTG+1 only called, so he probably doesn't have a premium hand. UTG may or may not. And the flop missed everything that first position would usually raise with, except AA, KK, QQ, AK of hearts, AQ, and maybe KQ of hearts.]

Hero bets $0.62, UTG raises $1.24, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $0.62.


Turn:

4

[Mostly a good turn card for me, but the pairing has opened up some nasty possibilities. Given that he raised UTG, then raised my bet on the flop, I'm now putting him on AA, KK, QQ, AQ. Ak and KQ of hearts is a possibility, but probably wouldn't have raised the flop, at least not on the 10NL level.]

Loading this into poker stove, it shows that I have 70.64% equity against this possible range.

Board: 4s 7h Qh 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.636% 70.64% 00.00% 777 0.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 29.364% 29.36% 00.00% 323 0.00 { QQ+, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AQo }

so...

Hero bets $3.73, UTG calls $3.73


River:

3

[Okay, he called the larger turn bet.]

Hero checks, UTG bets all-in $5.19, Hero ???

[This screams QQ for a full house, or that he chased me and made a higher flush. There's a small possibility that he's donking with AQ, AA, KK, or even KQo.

Against this level 1 range (I has TPTK!) I'm an 88.24% favorite:

Board: 4s 7h Qh 4h 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 88.235% 88.24% 00.00% 30 0.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 11.765% 11.76% 00.00% 4 0.00 { QQ+, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AQo, KQo }

But against a level 2 (can I beat the flush that he's repping?) He's a 100% favorite to win. Even worse is that I've built the pot to the point that I'm now getting 3.15 to 1 odds on a call.

So my questions are:

1) Was it truly a mistake to build the pot on the turn, given that there was no real read that he had the exact cards needed to bury my flush? My instinct said no, and PS gave a green light upon review, but it was a paired board.

2) What do I do on the river? Do I cry and call, knowing that I'm crushed, but getting better than 3 to 1 odds with the possibility that he's donking AA, KK, or AQo? Or do I puke and fold, knowing that few sane players would push in this position with anything less than a superior flush or full-house?

edit:

3) Did the turn bet serve any good purpose given that the villain still had the possibility of AA, KK, and AQo in his range, or did it just stack reverse implied odds against me?

I'm of the opinion that pre-flop is an obvious call. However, I also think that the flop bet is questionable because your fold equity isn't that great. As played, it seems like you need to bet the turn to charge hands like overpairs + FD and flopped sets. Why are you not betting the river?

As regards the turn bet, I think it's reasonable to think that his flop range is at least as wide as flopped sets, flopped overpairs, AK/AJ/KJ of hearts and AQ (you have ~60% against this range). I doubt he's folding AQ enough to drop that below 50%. However, you are (losing more against hands that beat you when they raise and you can't get away) than you're winning against hands like AQ because of the times that a fourth heart comes on the river and your opponent does not hold a heart. If he's not calling the turn bet with worse than AQ ever, you're probably going to be somewhat close to 0 EV on the turn bet. That being said, I still prefer to bet on the turn to prevent us from checking and having to play the guessing game against this opponent, a situation where we are unlikely to be +EV out of position over two streets.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Why are you not betting the river?

Wasn't consciously thinking this at the time, but not betting the river gives my opponent a chance to donk with AA, KK, or AQo, whereas betting the river might make him fold anything that has me beaten. (Unlikely though, given his calling my turn bet.)

But the real reason was that I was reeling from him actually calling the turn bet, and wanted to get some distance to see what he would do on the river.

Dean

Which range do you think your hand does better against: the range that calls a shove on the river, or the range that shoves if you check on the river?

I think that it depends on my opponent. At 10NL, I've seen players shove with AA, KK, and even a missed AK on the river when checked to, even on highly dangerous boards like this one.

But if we're talking a tight, tough player, then I really don't know. My gut reaction is that shoving myself will tend to only fold out the hand's I can beat but only a percentage of the time. A paired flush board is only getting called by a fairly high flush or straight, so I don't see any extra value in shoving the river.

So I guess the answer would be that I do better against the range that shoves into perceived weakness on the river when I check, rather than the range that calls into shown strength, when I shove. And if they check behind me, then I MIGHT have lost a small value bet that I could have made instead, but no more than that.

Okay let me rephrase that. Do you think he's more likely to call a shove if he has AA or shove when you check?

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Okay let me rephrase that. Do you think he's more likely to call a shove if he has AA or shove when you check?

Ohhhhhh, I got it. He would only call a shove with AA (assuming he's not donking it) if the pot odds on my shove made him cringe call. He's not shoving with AA against that board unless he's playing stupid.

So a shove would actually trap more marginal hands in this situation due to pot commitment.

Originally Posted by davisrei

Ohhhhhh, I got it. He would only call a shove with AA (assuming he's not donking it) if the pot odds on my shove made him cringe call. He's not shoving with AA against that board unless he's playing stupid.

So a shove would actually trap more marginal hands in this situation due to pot commitment.

You get the idea. See Carroter's post in this recent thread for a similar situation: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ld-192756.html

Spoon, you're fucking awesome.

Originally Posted by davisrei

Wasn't consciously thinking this at the time, but not betting the river gives my opponent a chance to donk with AA, KK, or AQo, whereas betting the river might make him fold anything that has me beaten. (Unlikely though, given his calling my turn bet.)

Only thing I wanted to pull up is that isn't donking - when a fish "donks" it's when they lead without initiative. So if you raise and a fish calls out of position and then leads flop not giving you the opportunity to c-bet, that's donking.

Great thread this

While you can come up with reasons not to build the pot on the turn, doing so requires moving in the direction of over-thinking. You didn't play the hand the way you did to not build the pot when you hit your flush. You were assuming it would be good, and the only holding in the range you've given him that beats you is QQ.

Similarly on the river, you didn't play the way you did on the previous streets to fold to a small-ish shove on a blank.