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i cant see him having a FD very much at all here because his opening range seems tight, and his 3bet calling range is presumably tighter. there aren't likely to be too many non-paired hands in there, and the K of spades in your hand means he can't have AsKs. i think there are two flush draw combos in his range at most (AsQs, AsJs) but he could well be folding AJs preflop here, who knows.
i think his value range is as follows. yes 22 and AA could arguably be discounted because most villain's fold and 4bet these preflop. but i put them in.
14,850 games 0.001 secs 14,850,000 games/sec
Board: 2s 7s Ad
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.848% 10.59% 19.26% 1572 2860.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 70.152% 50.89% 19.26% 7557 2860.50 { AA, 77, 22, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AKo }
i doubt we'll need him to be c/raising with many bluffs or worse value hands to make up 35% equity, which is roughly how much we need to breakeven on a call.
for example, if we think he does this with AQ:
Board: 2s 7s Ad
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.928% 32.00% 13.93% 6652 2896.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 54.072% 40.14% 13.93% 8345 2896.50 { AA, 77, 22, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AQo+ }
or if he is checkraising any middle pairs or anything else stupid because he thinks we are full of shit, our equity is pretty similar.
without reads that he is a tight reg i probably look him up here and take a note on his line with whatever he shows down with.
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