Hey guys,
This is a pretty good point you're bringing up about betting maybe a little bit larger on the
flop on that
QQ hand. But I think $3.50 is too high. If we bet $3.50 here, when our opponent shoves $11.19, there will be $20.44 in the pot, and it will only be $7.69 for us to
call. So, we'll be getting about 2.65-1, which might not make our opponent think he has enough
fold equity here to
shove light.
So, I really thought maybe $3 would be the maximum we should bet here, but then I got thinking about the
texture of the board and realized that there was only one
OESD possible (JT double-gutter), and furthermore there was no Axs
flush draw possible either. And even when our opponent has a
FD or JT, there's a fair chance he will get it in with us on the
flop, anyway. So this board was pretty dry, as far as draws go, and that led me to believe that a smaller betsize would be closer to correct and might get more
action from things like pocket jacks or gutshots. On the other hand, our opponent could very
well have paired the ace, but in that
case it doesn't matter what we bet; he should get it in with us regardless. So, on
balance I figured that betting smaller than $3 would be best here...maybe $2 is too low, but I think anything over $3 is too high.
I also was thinking about
standard betsizes in a 4bet pot, wherein players routinely bet 1/3 of the pot as a cbet, when there's an
SPR around 1.5ish. In a 3bet pot, where SPRs are more normally around 4.5, it is common for players to bet 1/2 pot. In the hand in question, the
SPR is about 2, so it's in between the normal SPRs of a 3bet and 4bet pot, but closer to a 4bet pot. So, I figured that the "
standard"
line in this
spot would be to cbet between 1/3 and 1/2 of the pot, but closer to 1/3, both because of the
SPR and because of the fact that the board is pretty dry.
But, then we should consider our opponent also, and he looks pretty fishy, due to his
stats, his
stack size and his
open-
limp. However, we only have 13 hands on him, so it's not clear exactly how fishy he is. Therefore, we
don't really know what his postflop tendencies are; they are likely bad, but we
don't know what they are, so I'
m not sure that this information helps us much in our
flop bet-sizing decision.
On
balance, I concluded that a small betsize around $2-$2.25 was good here, based upon
SPR and
board texture. But I can surely see a good argument for any betsize up to around $3ish here.