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[5NL] KQo on the button. Flop trips against tight villain...his range?
Villain is 11/3/0 (3bet) through 64 hands. Had folded his blinds to steal 100% of the time, 2/2 in SB, 4/4 in BB. Fold to flop cbet was 50%, 1/2.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: $8.71
MP: $5.42
CO: $7.48
Hero (BTN): $5.62
SB: $4.45
BB: $19.43
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q K
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) Q 3 Q
BB checks, Hero bets $0.20, BB calls $0.20
Turn: ($0.72, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.25
River: ($4.22, 2 players) 4
BB bets $4.05, Hero ???
Flop - He c/c. I think villain could have 33, 99-JJ, KK+ I am discounting 22, 44-88 based on his tight image. AKs/AKo, Acxc, AQs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QTo+. I don't think villain would call with any smaller Qx type hands than QTo.
Turn - Now, he c/r me? I feel he has to have a Q now, 33 or at the very least KK+. Can we narrow it down that far? The turn is an absolute blank, unless he was adventurous and called with 66 on the flop, but I doubt it. Would he do this with the NFD on a paired board, surely he would just call again? Range = 33, KK+, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+
River - He raised the turn to set up a river shove ( enough to put me all-in ) River is another blank, so I don't think villain's range changes from the turn.
If I am doing this correctly, there are 3 combo's of 33, there are 3 combo's of KK, 6 combo's of AA, 4 combo's of AQ, 3 combo's of KQ, 4 combo's of QJ and 4 combo's of QT.
That's a total of 27 combo's. I can beat 17 combo's, tie with 3, and lose to 7.
If my range is correct, I would have to call.
Thoughts?
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