[5NL] AKo...top two pair...river donk?

Villain is 20/14/5 through 130 hands. Folded his blinds 81% of the time, fold to cbet 75%, 3/4.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): $5.91
BTN: $5.11
SB: $4.34
BB: $8.50
UTG: $3.78
MP: $5.07

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K A

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, SB calls $0.13, fold

Flop: ($0.35, 2 players) 3 K A
SB checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.85, 2 players) 2
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

River: ($2.05, 2 players) Q
SB bets $1.25, Hero ???

Pretty sure I should be folding here but I hate it.

The donk on river looks like he made a hand, especially after c/c flop and turn, and it stinks of a value bet. It looked like JT or a flush although I'm not sure what clubs he could have with A, K and Q out. JTcc is obviously a possibility, I think the only hand I am beating that he would value bet here with would be AQ and maybe KQ.

He could also have slow played a set, 33?? Which again, beats my hand.

Thoughts?

If he is folding his blind 81% of the time his range is going to be reasonably strong. He can't have AKQc so his flush draws are reasonably limited due to your kicker, so I wouldn't be massively worried about a flush. JTs is maybe in his range, for the straights and one flush.

Don't forget things like A2s & A3s are probably in his range, he has a few two pair type hands.

I don't think I'm folding here, I don't love life calling but I don't hate it either and I think we gain quite a lot of information about how he plays certain hands like straight/flush draws and low sets, so I call and make a note.

If you're folding here are the only hands you're calling a bet with sets or better? Or do you fold some sets too? If so you're going to be massively exploitable as you don't really ever have any straights or flushes here. Only really KJs for the flush.

If you know he can fold a weak flush here (which I don't think he has anyway) then I quite like shoving over the top if you'd play some flush draws like this as you have the Kc, but you'd have to work out how profitable that is as I'm never sure.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

If he is folding his blind 81% of the time his range is going to be reasonably strong. He can't have AKQc so his flush draws are reasonably limited due to your kicker, so I wouldn't be massively worried about a flush. JTs is maybe in his range, for the straights and one flush.

Don't forget things like A2s & A3s are probably in his range, he has a few two pair type hands.

I don't think I'm folding here, I don't love life calling but I don't hate it either and I think we gain quite a lot of information about how he plays certain hands like straight/flush draws and low sets, so I call and make a note.

If you're folding here are the only hands you're calling a bet with sets or better? Or do you fold some sets too? If so you're going to be massively exploitable as you don't really ever have any straights or flushes here. Only really KJs for the flush.

If you know he can fold a weak flush here (which I don't think he has anyway) then I quite like shoving over the top if you'd play some flush draws like this as you have the Kc, but you'd have to work out how profitable that is as I'm never sure.

Hmm, I hadn't considered A2s-A3s. If I take JTo out of his range, which I don't think he can get to the river with, PS gives me;

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

14 games 0.000 secs 2,800 games/sec

Board: 3c Kh Ac 2h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.429% 71.43% 00.00% 10 0.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 28.571% 28.57% 00.00% 4 0.00 { 33, AQs, A3s-A2s, JcTc, AQo }

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Equity vastly changes just by including JTo in his range, although as stated, I do find this fairly unlikely;

Board: 3c Kh Ac 2h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.462% 38.46% 00.00% 10 0.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 61.538% 61.54% 00.00% 16 0.00 { 33, AQs, A3s-A2s, JcTc, AQo, JTo }

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I think looking at it this way, given villain's range, it's an easy call.

I think he checks all the hands you beat on the river and i think he bets some of his hands that you beat but have improved like AQ and KQ. Since he check called the flop and turn i'm happy discounting 33 completely. He might bet A3 some of the time too. So the range i'd give him on the river {JTcc 45cc 89cc A3s KQ AQ}

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

119 games 0.000 secs 23,800 games/sec

Board: 3c Kh Ac 2h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 82.353% 82.35% 00.00% 98 0.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 17.647% 17.65% 00.00% 21 0.00 { AQs, A3s, KQs, JcTc, 9c8c, 5c4c, AQo, KQo }


I'd be calling.

Calling, but not too happy about it. This line is a flush more often than not at 5nl, but there are some rivered 2 pair combos in there that may take this line. Given pot odds, make the marginal call and don't worry about it too much the times villain rolls over a suited connector flush.

Hand is played well otherwise, although would size turn slightly bigger as this villain's calling range is inelastic on this turn brick after chk/calling flop.

Calling all day. He has lots of worse 2p and I think has AQ a large amount of the time. The main flushes he has are suited connectors, but that limits him to prob 67, 78, 89, 9T, TJ. That's only 5 combos. It's feasible he leads with AQ, A2s, A3s and could even be repping the flush with the likes of A8-AJ.

you need to win just under 30% of the time. It's really close. Meaning that neither of calling/folding is a big mistake here. Well, that's gut anyway
stove this:
[AK/AQ/A3s/KQ/JTcc/J9cc/JThh/T9cc/T8cc/98cc/97cc]

Interesting to read so many people giving villain a lot of SC's/S1G's in his range, he was 20/14 and folded his blinds 81% of time. Surely we can eliminate hands like 54cc, T8cc etc etc?

I'd fold. He has the flush too often.

Folds 81% -> that means villain continues 19%. This

{ 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A Jo+,KQo,QJo,JTo }

is a fairly reasonable 19% range which contains the hands you question. It lacks ATo, which seems pretty silly, if it includes JTo and QJo, not to mention 54s and the like. But it shows that a moderately (but not fully) sensible range has those hands.