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[5NL] A7s...blind vs blind...limped pot...line check.

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  1. #1

    Default [5NL] A7s...blind vs blind...limped pot...line check.

    Villain is 17/10/0 (3bet) through 52 hands. No other notes.

    PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BB: $6.22
    UTG: $9.83
    MP: $5.00
    CO: $5.36
    BTN: $14.46
    Hero (SB): $5.00

    Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A 7

    fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.03, BB checks

    Flop: ($0.10, 2 players) 2 T 5
    Hero bets $0.10, BB raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.00, BB calls $0.70

    Turn: ($2.10, 2 players) K
    Hero bets $1.15, BB calls $1.15

    River: ($4.40, 2 players) 4
    Hero checks, BB checks

    Have I played my draw a little too aggressively here or is it the correct play? I have to continue on the turn after 3betting the flop don't I? I realize villain can literally have ATC here.

    The reason for the limp pre is I would rather l/c than possibly having to call a 3bet if I raise OOP, good/bad logic?
    Last edited by Cobra_1878; 05-13-2013 at 07:11 AM.
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  2. #2
    rong's Avatar
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    Meh, I don't like the limp.
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  3. #3
    17/10 at 6max is pretty nitty so I'm raising this PF all day long. I would just fold if he 3bets unless you have history or know that he 3bets light in this spot. If you're gonna mention PF 3betting, you should include his 3bet stats in the OP. If he 3bets very widely then AXs might be a good 4bet bluffing hand.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by eugmac View Post
    17/10 at 6max is pretty nitty so I'm raising this PF all day long. I would just fold if he 3bets unless you have history or know that he 3bets light in this spot. If you're gonna mention PF 3betting, you should include his 3bet stats in the OP. If he 3bets very widely then AXs might be a good 4bet bluffing hand.
    You're raising to win his blind? I don't think he calls with any worse, at least we can get some value by keeping him in the hand pre.

    Updated OP.
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  5. #5
    Well yes it's a steal, and as backup we have a playable hand even OOP in case he calls, as long as we're not stacking off on an A high board.

    Assuming you raise it to 3bb, how often do you need villain to fold for making a pure bluff +EV? Assume that every time he continues (calls or raises), you lose.
    Last edited by eugmac; 05-13-2013 at 07:20 AM.
  6. #6
    To make an extreme example, let's say villain's continuing range is {AA}. We have no hands that we can value bet vs him preflop. What's our play?
  7. #7
    Villain continues with 17% of hands, so 17% of the time we lose 3bb. 83% of the time, we win 1bb.

    Not sure how to continue with that to find out exactly what the EV is.

    If villain only continues with AA then we raise ATC pre, right?

    Also, other then the limp pre, how is the rest of the hand played?
    Last edited by Cobra_1878; 05-13-2013 at 07:46 AM.
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  8. #8
    No, we already have half a big blind in the pot - that 0.5BB doesn't belong to you any more. You're risking 2.5 BB now to win 1.5BB.

    Find out how often he needs to fold in order for us to automatically profit with a bluff:

    Bet / (Pot + Bet)
    = .13 / (.7 + .13)
    = .65

    So we need him to fold about over 2/3 of the time, and assuming he continues with just 17% as you wrote, that's more than what we need. The important part is not to spew postflop when he calls us with his strong range. Remember that your profits are being made preflop, so there's no need to start trying to take the pot away postflop too often the few times he does continue.

    This doesn't necessarily mean though that you should start raising ATC vs him - you want to exploit him without beating him over the head to let him know that he's being exploited.
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by eugmac View Post
    No, we already have half a big blind in the pot - that 0.5BB doesn't belong to you any more. You're risking 2.5 BB now to win 1.5BB.

    Find out how often he needs to fold in order for us to automatically profit with a bluff:

    Bet / (Pot + Bet)
    = .13 / (.7 + .13)
    = .65

    So we need him to fold about over 2/3 of the time, and assuming he continues with just 17% as you wrote, that's more than what we need. The important part is not to spew postflop when he calls us with his strong range. Remember that your profits are being made preflop, so there's no need to start trying to take the pot away postflop too often the few times he does continue.

    This doesn't necessarily mean though that you should start raising ATC vs him - you want to exploit him without beating him over the head to let him know that he's being exploited.
    I always forget about that bet / ( bet + pot ) formula. Is that only used for working out bluffing equity?

    I understand about not overly exploiting him to make it obvious, I assume that's along the same lines as 3bet bluffing some who steals from button too much.
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  10. #10
    rong's Avatar
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    You should come into irc. Eug and I covered lots of this in some detail which I found really useful.
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  11. #11
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    bet/(bet + pot) is useful in all gambling situations.

    It is more generally stated as risk/reward.

    If the total you have to risk
    divided by the total that someone will win
    is equal to your chance to win,
    then it is a 0 EV gamble.

    If your chance to win is greater than this ratio, then it is +EV to risk.
    If your chance to win is less than the ratio, then it is -EV.
  12. #12
    Raise or fold preflop, and it's not particularly close.

    It's too strong to fold, so then we're raising.

    You don't think he calls with worse bvb? 56, 67, 78,79, T8, T9, JT, J9, QJ, QT, KJ, KQ etc etc etc all seem worse to me! And this is very narrow bvb even. If he only calls better then you should still be raising preflop, because that just means he's folding way too much.
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  13. #13
    OK, OK, I understand now that I should have raised pre.

    What about the rest of the hand???
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  14. #14
    The problem with limped pots is that you can't narrow his range. Normally on this type of spot he would be pretty narrow, to maybe only sets, and 8Tcc+.

    Now he can have T2/T5/52, all sets, all Txcc. It can't be a huge mistake playing this hand aggressively, but you should be MUCH more aware of two pairs in limped pots and play accordingly.

    Calling on the flop and c/c turn can't be too bad either, as it keeps any nonsense he has in the hand, and he will probably bluff the flush.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  15. #15
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    raise pre, don't 3bet the flop cos he's got a junk strong range on the flop that looks like Tx+ and ain't folding. well, he might fold some of it, but the stuff that pays off a turn flush is more likely to 4bet the flop. Better to get to the turn vs his sets and two pair etc
    Last edited by daven; 05-13-2013 at 09:32 PM.
  16. #16
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    raise pre definitely. why did you decide to 3b the flop? i'd prefer to just call as i feel like our FE is going to be like 10% or less when we 3b and we probably don't have enough pot equity versus his nut range to just keep shovelling money in the pot. as palyed i'd probably fire this turn as well, though it does kind of feel like lighting money on fire because he's now folding like 0% (he knows we are as unlikely as him to have had our hand affected by the K unless we have Kxcc) and our pot equity got chopped in half

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