[2NL] JJ UTG...OOP in 3bet pot.

Villain is 19/12/6 through 1,000 hands. Cbet 37% of time.

Villain is positionally aware. Had notes that villain liked to 3bet when he had the button. Had seen him 3bet with TT+, AQs+ and JTs. He 3bets huge with big hands, had seen him 3bet 10x a standard open raise with KK. Had seen him shove with TPTK before and he is very aggressive with overpairs.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $3.46
Hero (UTG): $2.00
MP: $2.77
CO: $1.60
BTN: $5.23
SB: $2.02

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J J

Hero raises to $0.06, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.19, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.41, 2 players) Q 3 4
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.34, Hero ???

Thoughts???

I think fold.

Do you think it would provide any information to 4b pre-flop to determine his range?

Originally Posted by Deucebag

I think fold.

Do you think it would provide any information to 4b pre-flop to determine his range?

I don't like 4betting OOP, bloating a pot, with an awkward post flop hand like JJ. I am not going to like ~50% of flops so I am happy with just calling.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Cbet 37% of time.

This is pretty f'n low. adjust accordingly

Originally Posted by d0zer

This is pretty f'n low. adjust accordingly

I thought about that but I knew villain was positionally aware and could well just be cbetting IP. I couldn't really ask for a better flop with JJ so was hesitant to fold.

This is interesting.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Villain is 19/12/6 through 1,000 hands. Cbet 37% of time

do you have cBet-in-3Bet-Pot stats for this guy?

VPIP is the nitty end of tight. 3Bet stat suggests he doesn't have (m)any bluffs in his range. he's only cBetting 1-in-3 flops (i.e. only when he hits), and he's betting 80% of the pot.

seems like he means business.

what range do you put him on post cBet?

Originally Posted by d0zer

This is pretty f'n low. adjust accordingly

call more IP pre, and bet flop when checked to?

pre seems like one of these spots where 4betting would fold all the worse hands and never be called by worse (barring AK which is only marginally worse).

That leaves calling or folding. Mind that he may have a 3b bluffing range, but here he is raising a UTG open, and he is pretty nitty. Also since he seems to play fit or fold, if you call pre you pretty much know that you will often have to fold when he cbets.

You often hear "don't call 3bets OOP". I am interested to hear how more experienced players would play this hand.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

do you have cBet-in-3Bet-Pot stats for this guy?

VPIP is the nitty end of tight. 3Bet stat suggests he doesn't have (m)any bluffs in his range. he's only cBetting 1-in-3 flops (i.e. only when he hits), and he's betting 80% of the pot.

seems like he means business.

what range do you put him on post cBet?

Hmm, this is interesting. His cbet in 3bet pots is 67%, 4/6.

Post flop I figure he could have 99-TT, KQs, AQs+/AQo+, QJss, JTss, A8ss-AKss ( not sure whether he would 3bet with smaller suited A's IP? ), and a cbet with air.

There isn't a whole lot I can put him on in a 3bet pot and a fairly dry board like that.

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PokerStove gives me;

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,530 games 0.004 secs 11,632,500 games/sec

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.575% 58.58% 00.00% 27255 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 41.425% 41.42% 00.00% 19275 0.00 { TT-99, AQs+, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KsQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+ }

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Hmm, this is interesting. His cbet in 3bet pots is 67%, 4/6.

meh. too small a sample...

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Post flop I figure he could have 99-TT, KQs, AQs+/AQo+, QJss, JTss, A8ss-AKss

first off, why have you excluded JJ+?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

...a fairly dry board...

there're draws possible. beside the Flush, an Ace will make a BDSM. errrr, no, no i mean BDSD. Sorry, wrong website

With 6% 3b (which includes his blind defenses) over 1000 hands, I doubt he 3b that wide even from the button.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

first off, why have you excluded JJ+?

I excluded JJ+ because I had seen him 3bet quite big, 10xBB, with KK and assumed he would do the same with QQ & AA. JJ I just discounted as it is unlikely he is holding same PP as me. I suppose I could add JJ to his range.

Originally Posted by daviddem

With 6% 3b (which includes his blind defenses) over 1000 hands, I doubt he 3b that wide even from the button.

If you look at my reads on villain in OP, you will see that I have actually seen him 3bet with JTs. Unless you're talking about the suited A's I assigned him?

Just to give you a sense of the uncertainty with a stat reading 4/6.

At 4 successes over 6 trials, using the Wilson Score Interval for error bounds, the "actual" frequency will be:
43.4% to 83.9% @ 75% CI (reliable 3 times out of 4).
30.0% to 90.3% @ 95% CI (reliable 19 times out of 20).
22.7% to 93.2% @ 99% CI (reliable 99 times out of 100).

The confidence interval (CI) represents how often a stat with an "actual" frequency between the boundaries would yield the observed frequency.

If the actual stat is 43.4%, you would expect it to have 4 (or more) successes over 6 trials roughly 25% of the time. If the actual freq. is 83.9%, you would expect it to have 4 (or fewer) successes over 6 trials roughly 25% of the time.

Some of you more savvy folks might have noticed that the Wilson Score Interval is not symmetrical about the observed frequency. This is a brilliant thing, as it takes into account that results moving toward 50% make a more drastic change in the observed freq. than results moving away from 50%.

In an extreme example, consider 1 success and 99 failures. At this point the observed freq. is 1.01%. A success will make it 2%, so an increase of .99%, while a failure will make it 1%, so a decrease of 0.01%. Moving toward 50% always counts more than moving away from 50%.

Look at that physics degree at work.

If you look at my reads on villain in OP, you will see that I have actually seen him 3bet with JTs. Unless you're talking about the suited A's I assigned him?

Yeah I've seen that, however that does not mean that he ALWAYS 3b with as little as JTs. If he did, his 3b stat would be much higher.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Yeah I've seen that, however that does not mean that he ALWAYS 3b with as little as JTs. If he did, his 3b stat would be much higher.

I know it doesn't, but that doesn't mean I can't assign a hand I have seen him 3bet with into his 3bet range does it.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I know it doesn't, but that doesn't mean I can't assign a hand I have seen him 3bet with into his 3bet range does it.

no, it doesn't. But you need to think about weighting some of these holdings, as per the JJ+ question above.

at the moment, you're either including or excluding a pocket 100% from his range based on info that is not 100% conclusive.

innit

The point is, when you build a range, you should be careful about the assumptions you make. Doing stuff like excluding JJ+ because you have once seen him 3b very big with KK is risky because he may have had specific reasons to do so on that one occasion (for example if he was playing against a whale calling everything). Now if you have consistently seen him do that every time he had JJ+, then it's OK to exclude them.

To give you an idea, if his flop cbet range includes JJ+, his equity jumps to 66%:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     66.468%      65.53%     00.94%              33087           472.50   { 99+, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, JsTs, AQo }
Hand 1:     33.532%      32.60%     00.94%              16458           472.50   { JcJs }

If you exclude JJ+, he still has 56%:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     56.381%      56.38%     00.00%              19536             0.00   { TT-99, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, JsTs, AQo }
Hand 1:     43.619%      43.62%     00.00%              15114             0.00   { JcJs }

Even if we remove QTs, he still has 53%:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     53.343%      53.34%     00.00%              16899             0.00   { TT-99, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, KsJs, QJs, JsTs, AQo }
Hand 1:     46.657%      46.66%     00.00%              14781             0.00   { JcJs }

Also ask yourself whether he would always cbet his flush draws (particularly the weaker ones) when he has the option of taking a free card. If the answer is no and we start removing flush draws from his range, then your equity gets worse. On the other hand if you include more cbet bluffs, for example his AK's, then your equity becomes 55%.

For me, it's still a fold OTF. We're OOP, there are an overcard and a FD on the board, he's got tons of Q's in his range, we are facing a semi-competent villain, our hand will rarely improve other than picking up a weak FD OTT, we will have to fold to all his turn barrels, his flop bet is big, etc

You did include QTs+ and KsJs, I didn't include either of these and you left out AKs/AKo which he could quite easily cbet that board with. The fact that he plays overpairs and TPGK aggressively also leads me to believe that he may not have KK/AA, and going by that I could possibly exclude AQs/AQo, but I left those in for balance.

He may not bet JTss, other than that I only gave him NFD's and QJss which he would obviously have a pair with.

I also realized we both gave him JTss, which is impossible as I hold the Js.

If I just used all of the information from my reads, which is what I would do at the time of the hand, then his range would be;

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.001 secs 35,640,000 games/sec

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.614% 68.61% 00.00% 24454 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 31.386% 31.39% 00.00% 11186 0.00 { TT-99, AKs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, QJs, QsTs, AKo }

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I exclude JJ+ because I had seen him be aggressive with these hands pre flop, not only that, he had been aggressive with them post flop. His flop cbet was not like his previous betting when he held an overpair or TPTK as he was shoving, or being very aggressive, with these hands. So, from this, I feel I can safely rule out AQs/AQo.

That leaves him with what I have put above.

If I leave in AQs/AQo just incase he isn't being as aggressive as usual it gives me;

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

92,464,416 games 0.015 secs 6,164,294,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.830% 62.60% 00.23% 57884179 210861.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 37.170% 36.94% 00.23% 34158515 210861.00 { TT-99, AQs+, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, QJs, QsTs, AQo+ }

If you put JTs in his 3b range pre, why would you exclude QTs and KJs?

Is a near pot size bet OTF not aggressive enough for him to have TPTK or an overpair? Does he always open shove or overbet his top or overpair hands?

True he can't have JsTs or QsJs, however Pokerstove takes care of removing these hands from his range when doing the calculations, so it does not affect the results.

edit: also, you forgot to enter the board cards when you stoved your range above. With the board cards:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     54.179%      54.18%     00.00%              25746             0.00   { JcJs }
Hand 1:     45.821%      45.82%     00.00%              21774             0.00   { TT-99, AQs+, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, QJs, QsTs, AQo+ }

Also not sure why you have only QsTs in that range and not the other QTs. You also don't have AsJs.

Originally Posted by daviddem

If you put JTs in his 3b range pre, why would you exclude QTs and KJs?

Is a near pot size bet OTF not aggressive enough for him to have TPTK or an overpair? Does he always open shove or overbet his top or overpair hands?

True he can't have JsTs or QsJs, however Pokerstove takes care of removing these hands from his range when doing the calculations, so it does not affect the results.

edit: also, you forgot to enter the board cards when you stoved your range above. With the board cards:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     54.179%      54.18%     00.00%              25746             0.00   { JcJs }
Hand 1:     45.821%      45.82%     00.00%              21774             0.00   { TT-99, AQs+, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, QJs, QsTs, AQo+ }

Also not sure why you have only QsTs in that range and not the other QTs. You also don't have AsJs.

No, he didn't near PSB when he had overpair or TPTK, he was overly aggressive. As if he felt like he was protecting his hand against any draws, always way over pot bet or a shove.

I was meant to put QTs in his range, my bad. I didn't put AsJs because I have the Js in my hand.