$25 Bodog AA vs. limpzilla

Villain is 38/7 over 279. I've been up against this guy all day. c/r is his only move. I've never seen him lead into the flop. My bet sizing is pretty consistent. I'm not really sure what a raise of that size really means (larger than his norm of 3x). Is he holding 2 pair or a set and scaring off draws or am I giving him too much credit? In b4 bet more on the flop.

Bodog - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (BTN): $32.40
SB: $17.92
BB: $7.50
UTG: $30.05
CO: $28.05

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has

fold, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, CO calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.85, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.75, CO raises to $8.10, Hero?

probably raise more pre, more on flop and happily call the flop and call any turn if he's c/ring at any kind of frequency. you should have timing tells also. pay attention to his turn timing after you flat flop.
also do you know what it means when he hits the pot button because that's what he did here.

basically we can happily discount QQ/TT so we're only losing to 33/QT and probably Q3 and T3 a non zero amount of the time. toss in some draws/Qx and spazz and we should be pretty happy.

Could be QT ,33, AQ,maybe even TT some amount of the time, also could be combo draw, bottom pair +FD, Idk, is flat flop and evaluate turn, watch timing,his bet sizing, and texture, this board is kinda drawy if he limps Broadway's and such, its a meh spot at best imo.

When you say "c/r is his only move" do you just mean he will never lead here, or do you expect a large portion of his range to c/c this flop? Also, how aggressive is our villain?

My best guess from the op is that he is c/r'ing a fair amount in which case i would prefer to raise this flop. I don't like calling as much because I do not think we can really get away here on later streets and I would prefer to get it in when his stack off range is widest and before the board gets scarier.

Then again i haven't played poker in a while.

Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

When you say "c/r is his only move" do you just mean he will never lead here, or do you expect a large portion of his range to c/c this flop? Also, how aggressive is our villain?

My best guess from the op is that he is c/r'ing a fair amount in which case i would prefer to raise this flop. I don't like calling as much because I do not think we can really get away here on later streets and I would prefer to get it in when his stack off range is widest and before the board gets scarier.

Then again i haven't played poker in a while.

If he's c/ring a lot you want to keep his range as wide as possible and stop being a bitch about letting cards roll off.

it's time to show him the buisness

I can't see how I wouldn't be shoving here given villain is 38/7 and "c/r is his only move" and a limp call pre.

you people understand that if he's c/ring a lot( alot being like 20% or some shit) and you're shipping here you're just throwing away a tonne of money right? he's going to get to realize his equity w/ his draws anyway so you're better off just peeling and letting all his retarded airballs ship it in. how is this concept even remotely difficult to understand?

edit: also if he's c/fing all his draws(8outs+) on the turn it's more +eV to have him c/f the turn then it is to shove the flop, you know this right?

if someone can tell me why what I said in my edit is right I'll give them a cookie.

Originally Posted by Chusko

In b4 bet more on the flop.

bet more on flop
@ zzzzeyecandy - something to do with percentages i reckon

misread the post

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

you people understand that if he's c/ring a lot( alot being like 20% or some shit) and you're shipping here you're just throwing away a tonne of money right? he's going to get to realize his equity w/ his draws anyway so you're better off just peeling and letting all his retarded airballs ship it in. how is this concept even remotely difficult to understand?

Understood.

edit: also if he's c/fing all his draws(8outs+) on the turn it's more +eV to have him c/f the turn then it is to shove the flop, you know this right?

No fucking cookie.

Seems like this is dependent on how often he's calling a shipped flop w/ his draws. If he calls 100% of the time on the flop then that is obv more +ev than if he c/f the turn no?

Cos he's giving you 2 to 1 for 1 card as opposed to evens (approx) for 2 cards.

I don't think I'm getting a cookie.

Well if you ship the flop and he has an open ender or flush draw he's actually going to be calling correctly(and we make him fold all his junk that he could potentially just ship turn w/) If he's c/fing the turn he's still making the correct play but this is making us slightly more money because he isn't getting to realize his equity. I ran this through an eV calculator every way I could to make sure I was right and it's a slightly better play eV wise. About 1-3bb depending on the rest of his range. I believe this is because he is getting cloes to the exact odds if we ship on the flop. However if he needed say 29% instead of the 34% he needs it would become quite a bit better(on the flop obv). DOUCY?

Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

When you say "c/r is his only move" do you just mean he will never lead here, or do you expect a large portion of his range to c/c this flop? Also, how aggressive is our villain?

To clarify, he more frequently c/c's than anything but his only aggressive move is c/r. Whether he has a hand or not he never leads here.

No aggression info? Agg by street would be nice here

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

No aggression info? Agg by street would be nice here

Aggression Factor
pf: 0.15
flop: 0.51
turn: 0.69
River: 3.40

Fold to Flop Bet: 46.05

I guess this data tells the story. With the regularity that he's calling flops his c/r means my aces were probably in a bad spot.