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A random range has a pair or better 25% of the time on that flop. 5% flushdraw, 10% A high.
When his range for calling the flop/donking the turn is pretty wide - which I assume it is, then I think you can expect to have the best hand on the river a lot.
If he was value betting the turn, I don't think he's ever checking the river.
There are also very few better hands that I think would fold the river to a raise... plus when people are really confused in a hand they tend to pay you off in my experience. I'd just check it back.
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