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Originally Posted by revolvingiris
One of the topics I am working on now is bloating the pot vs reverse implied odds. Say we have AhKd on a KsQs2d board with 4 players who called our PF raise. We are on the BTN. We are pretty ahead of each player individually but combined we are not. Most boards I play are with multiway players for multiway streets. Which is great since we can just value bet all day. However, in situations like this I am not the most familiar EV wise.
Although we might not be a money favourite over our 3 opponents' combined outs, we are still favoured to win more than the average share of the pot.
Say on that KsQs2d board our AK fares very well against the rag-tag bunch of hands our opponents are holding. Even in virtually the worst possible scenario where we are currently ahead, but aren't that far ahead:
Board: Ks Qs 2d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.366% 35.24% 00.12% 289 1.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 16.585% 15.98% 00.61% 131 5.00 { JhTd }
Hand 2: 38.902% 38.78% 00.12% 318 1.00 { As7s }
Hand 3: 09.146% 08.54% 00.61% 70 5.00 { QdTh }
We still have far more equity in the pot than average (which would be 25%). If we were on a short stack and were all in on the flop, it would be a very +EV proposition.
In reality, these loose players will not always be in there with good draws to beat us. Often times they'll have more dominated hands such as AQ, K9, QJ, 99. Also weaker draws like gutshots eg J9. Other times there might be more than one player with the same flush draw, which kills more of their outs.
Board: Ks Qs 2d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.049% 57.68% 00.37% 473 3.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 21.220% 20.24% 00.98% 166 8.00 { JhTd }
Hand 2: 08.049% 07.68% 00.37% 63 3.00 { AdQc }
Hand 3: 12.683% 11.71% 00.98% 96 8.00 { Jd9c }
In this scenario we are a very strong favorite.
As far as reverse implied odds go, that's more of a concern when our top/middle pair isn't so large. In the AK on KQx example, there's no overcards that can come to make our hand lose to a higher 1 pair hand.
If we had say 83 on an 872 board with 6 opponents, now we have serious reverse implied odds issues because we're likely ahead on the flop, but won't be on the vast majority of turn cards if the pot stays multiway. In spots like this there's often little you can do to protect your very vulnerable hand.
One of the main tools in the LHE playbook is to try to confront the field with cold calling a raise. In doing this, we've forced them to make an error, usually by calling without the right odds. In most loose LHE games where flops are multiway and pots are large, it's correct to call a single bet with bottom pair (5 outs to 2pr+) or a gutshot draw. By confronting them with calling a double bet, we've cut down their odds substantially and they are more likely to make mistakes.
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