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Raising out hands when you think your beat

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  1. #1

    Default Raising out hands when you think your beat

    MP: Plays very face up and has been getting stomped on. He is the type that can't believe his TPTK lost on the river.
    BTN: Has never met a draw he didn't like.
    BB: LOOP and kind of stationy

    MP: raise
    Hero (cutoff): KK 3bet
    BTN: Flat
    BB: Flat
    MP: Call

    Flop: 9h8s6c (15sb)

    MP: Bet
    Hero: Raise
    BTN+BB: flat
    MP: 3bet
    Hero: 4bet
    BTN+BB: flat
    MP: 5bet (cap)
    Hero,BTN,BB: Call

    Turn: 6s (20bb)

    MP: Bet
    Hero: Raise
    BTN+BB: fold
    MP: Call

    River: 9c (24bb)

    MP: Check
    Hero: Check

    FLOP: I kept raising flop to get value from a spaz TT,JJ,QQ. Its entirely possible MP would play all of those hands that way. He will almost never have AA here based on his PF play. This guy would not give that much action without something that could beat two pair in this situation.

    TURN: I think I am behind here but raise anyways since I have two players behind me. Maybe I should have called the flop 3bet with the intention to raise safe turns? MP would never raise me without being able to beat an over pair. Before he called my raise he looked at me and said "I do not like that card and am now just calling". He was pretty nervous looking, red face, sweating etc lol.

    RIVER: This card looked like it absolutely killed MP. His face seriously got like white like he just lost his life. However, with the pot so big I don't think he is ever folding. He is the type of player who always assumes the worst and is verbal about it.

    CLIFFS: I kept raising confidently thinking I was beat to make the players left to act pay for their draws. Thoughts?
  2. #2
    I guess you are getting a good price on your bluff.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  3. #3
    chardrian's Avatar
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    u answered your own question on your comments regarding the flop.

    limit poker is mostly about getting value when ahead. it is rarely about raising when you think you are beat. bet when ahead, fold when behind.

    The only reason to 4-bet that flop is if you think you are likely ahead - with all that action that is doubtful.
    http://chardrian.blogspot.com
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  4. #4
    I am curious about how to play this spot with the two players behind me who are killing my equity. I should have just called down after the MP 3bet and fold to rivers unimproved?
  5. #5
    I would rather flat flop first time in hopes you could raise on the turn and maybe get folds, no one is folding a hand on the flop for 2 bets that they won't fold for one.
  6. #6
    Your not worried about losing value from QQ-TT on the flop? If you get 3bet on turn are you folding?
  7. #7
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I like your raise on the flop because it should get the Tx and 5x hands that could be behind you to fold when they wouldn't fold to one bet.

    Once the MP 3-bets you tho, there is no reason to bloat the pot because as you said there is no reason to believe he doesnt have at least two pair. So call the 3-bet. Call the turn, and call the river.

    Or even call flop, raise turn, and re-eval river.
    http://chardrian.blogspot.com
    come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com
  8. #8
    OK great, this brings up another interesting situation I have been thinking about. Say I call 3bet, call turn, and now face river bet (roughly 16bb). If we are sure villain has 2pair+ (more likely a set) are we calling river just on 6% chance that villain spazzed with an over pair?

    I've been watching a lot of videos on cardrunners and I see a lot of thin call downs that would be -EV vs the live players I encounter.
  9. #9
    It can definitely be a close decision, even getting 16:1 and only needing to be good ~6% of the time.

    Still, generally it's a small mistake to make a bad loose call of 1 BB. But it can be a monsterous mistake to fold the winner in a huge pot.

    Just like Dan Harrington in HOH says, people like to bluff. The chance that someone (even a mostly tight passive player) is bluffing is never zero.

    I agree with the line that char advocates, calling the flop 3bet and then calling down afterwards. When it plays out this way it doesn't bloat the pot, and if he is on something like JJ/QQ or even an aggro draw like JT or 77/87, he'll keep shooting figuring he is best or that he has to keep bluffing to win.

    Once you 4bet and he caps, it's looking more like we are beat (ie, his range is stronger), but the pot is also that much bigger and we should call down because of that.
    Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
  10. #10
    I guess my 4bet allowed MP to play pretty perfectly. I also like flatting the 3bet because I can sometimes value bet rivers when checked to.

    I hear you kornholio about it being worse to make bad folds vs thin calls but I am not familiar with where that tipping point is. Say in this scenario I did just flat 3bet, flat turn and am facing the river bet. Villains range will be wider so that 6% becomes more relevant where as in a 4bet pot I think it becomes a river fold:

    4way 3bet PF (12sb), 4 way capped flop (20sb), 4way call down turn (4bb), 2 way call river (2bb) = 22bb
    4way 3bet PF (12sb), 4way called flop 3bet (12sb), 4way call down turn (4bb), 2 way call river (2bb) = 18bb

    (I assumed I am only winning the 4bet pot 1% of the time which is probably realistic for this specific players spazzing frequency.)

    (Flop 4bet) 22*.01 = .22bb
    (Flop call 3bet) 18*.06 = 1.08bb

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