Playing a pat boat in POFC

You're only dealt a pat boat once every 3744 hands, so it's not a catastrophic hole in your game if you don't get max equity when you get it, but I think splitting it up--trips on the bottom, pair in mid or on top, depending on whether it is an FL pair--is the best play. If the trips are JJJ or smaller and the pair is an FL pair, the difference is bigger, but I think splitting the boat is still best if the cards are small.

In general, if you hold out til the bitter end, you'll catch quads on the bottom on one of the draws about a quarter of the time. Even if you don't, you'll end up making a boat on the bottom eventually by either drawing a pair or backdooring one fairly often. But even if you don't make a boat or quads on the bottom, breaking up the pair makes it much easier to get to FL.

In another post MMM shows that the odds of drawing a pair on 1 of the 4 draws is about 39%, but often if you make this play, the first pair you draw will go in the mid to make 2 pair (or the start of 2-pair if the initial pair was an FL pair played to the top or vice versa if the first pair drawn is an FL pair.)

Let's look at a couple scenarios.



Discards: 6d, Qh, Ah, Tc

I broke up the boat to set QQ on top to try for FL. The first draw brought 986, three live cards, and I set 98 in the mid. The next draw was Q82. The 8 paired the mid and the 2 was live, so 82 went in the mid. The third draw brought 77A, so I put the 77 in the bottom to complete the boat. I had 6 live outs for the last draw (opp had an 8 and a 9), which came K9T, making FL.

If I had set the boat, I would have ended up playing 98 mid, then 82 mid, then 77 top, then 9 mid K top to end up with:



Discards: 6d, Qh, Ah, Tc


There was never a route to FL once the QQ went on the bottom, so the hand makes 5 points less in royalties and doesn't make FL.

Here's one with small cards.




Discards: 5h, 8d, 2d, 8c

In this hand, 66 went in the mid, with the goal of making trips or 2-pair. The first draw came KQ5, and the two FL cards went to the top, so that a 6 or a pair in the mid and a K or a Q on top would make FL, and there were 3 draws to get there. The second draw came JJ8, with JJ going to the mid and the hand was now a virtually foulproof 6-out freeroll for FL. Draw 3 came 923, no K or Q, but quads on bottom. The last draw came AT8, and although the FL draw never got there, I got all the value I could have out of the cards I saw.

If I had set the boat, the hand would have played out like this:



Discards: 5h, 8d, 9s, 8c

Both the bottom and the mid end up weaker.

Sure, there will be times when you make this play when you won't get to FL and you end up with just trips on the bottom, losing 6 in royalties, but I'd argue that breaking up the boat--especially if the pair is an FL pair--gives you more chances to make monsters by getting to FL.

This is really interesting. Do you have any examples where we should not split up the boat?

When I first talked through this spot with EastsideJohnny, we tried to think of a hand where setting the pat boat low was clearly the superior play, but we couldn't think of one. Even if your boat is 22233, setting xxx/33/222 gives you trips low and a small pair mid, which sets up the chance to make another pair in the mid and an FL pair on top. In cases where the trips are lower-ranking than the pair and none of the cards are FL cards, the potential for monsters is lower because you can't make trips in the mid unless the bottom improves, but it still offers the best chance for FL, and it keeps the option of quads on the bottom alive. And if you change that baby boat to 33322, setting xxx/22/333 allows you to play a 2 in the mid immediately if you get lucky enough to get one on the first draw.

Imagine the worst case, you have 22233 in position in a 3-player game and before you set, your opps set the other 2 and both 3s, so that there is no chance to improve to quads low and you have no draws to improve the cards you have. Even then, setting xxx/33/222 gives you trips low and a small pair mid, which gives you a clear path to FL, and you still can make the boat on the bottom by drawing or backdooring a pair. A boat on the bottom is worth 6 in royalties, which is nice, admittedly. But in POFC, the name of the game is fantasyland, and breaking up pat boats is much more likely to lead to FL than setting them is.

Another interesting feature of this play is that when you have a pat boat where the trips are higher-ranking than the pair and the cards are in the J to 8 range, say JJJ99, you have a hand that just might get you the rare trips on top. If you set xxx/99/JJJ and catch 965 on the first draw. You play 96 mid and have trips over trips. When you pull 773 on the second draw, you have an interesting choice if the other two 7s are live; you can complete the boat low and still have an open top that might backdoor FL, or you can play 77 on top (guaranteeing at least 2 in royalties) and have two draws to catch one of the last two 7s for a tasty 15 in royalties and FL.

The whole point of breaking up the boat is that you give up 6 sure points on the set to increase the chances of making a monster later if you draw well.

I think you're probably right about this. It would be cool if we could run some simulations for verification.

It isn't often that our first 5 cards make a boat. However, I think we can use this thinking in more common spots. For example, suppose we set our first 5 cards as: X / 2 / 9 J J J

We draw 9 3 3 for our 6th and 7th card sets. Do we complete the boat with the nine or put the pair of threes in the middle to increase our chances for fl with a strong mid (on the way to 2 pair or better)?

If I took over a hand that someone else had set this way, I definitely would play 33 mid in that spot, but I would never have set this way. I think xxx/ 2 9 / J J J is better. Also, I think you should always be thinking about what hands you are trying to make. If your goal is just to make a boat on the bottom, then setting as you did and playing the 9 low to have xxx/ 2 3 / 9 9 J J J after the first draw is fine. But if you're goal is to make FL by making at least FL pair / 2 pair / trips (and of course to leave open the possibility of making bigger hands in mid and bottom), then setting as I did and playing 93 mid to make xxx/ 2 9 3 9 / J J J is better. Your top is open to start accumulating FL cards should they come, you have as many as 7 outs to make 2-pair or trips in the mid (depending on how many of your outs your opp has), and you can still make a boat or quads on the bottom. Sometimes this line will lead to 0 royalties when the FL pair never materializes and the bottom fails to improve, but, just as a chess player will sometimes sacrifice a pawn or even a piece to gain an attacking advantage, sometimes a POFC player should be willing to sacrifice a few sure points early in the play to try to create a path to a monster.

I just played this hand against WAZZUP (table 2595, hand 4).
OneByPhi (Dealer)



Discards 4d Jd Jc Th

WAZZUP



Discards: 3h 7h 3c 2h

I broke up the pat boat. Again, I'd like this more if it was xxx/77/JJJ instead of xxx/JJ/777, but the goal is to make at least FL pair / Jacks-up / trips. WAZZUP's set is pretty awful, I think. A / 4 2 / 9 8 or even A / 9 8 / 4 2 (if chasing 2-straight flushes tickles your fancy) seems better.

When the first draw came 5 2 4, I set the 5 2 in the mid because they were the most live cards possible for my 2-pair draw. The next draw came A 2 J, and I had 2 pair made in the mid and an A on top for my FL try. The third J didn't do me any good, so it went in the muck. Notice that at this point, I have the bottom and the mid made and a mostly live A on top. The third draw brought K T J, another FL card for the top, making a 4-out FL freeroll for the last draw, and a mostly live T for the bottom. The 4th draw was Q T T, and although the FL draw never got there, I ended up with a boat anyway. Although the FL draw never got there, I had a decent shot at FL with two pulls to come.

If I had set the boat, I'd set 5 2 in the mid on the first draw, A top and 2 mid on the second draw, K top and T mid on the third draw, and Q top and T mid on the last draw. the final hand would be



Discards 4d Jd Jc Th
which admittedly is almost the same hand (Ts-up instead of Js-up in the mid isn't much difference). But the route that started with breaking up the boat had trips on the bottom and 2-pair mid made after the second draw with a lone A up top for a 2-out freeroll FL draw with 2 pulls to come, and and a lone K and a lone A up top for a 4-out freeroll FL draw with 1 pull to come, but the route that started by setting the boat didn't make the mid until the last draw. Admittedly, the set-the-boat route wasn't in huge danger of fouling--although if the A had come on the third draw instead of the J, the break-up route was made and the set-the-boat route would have been faced with a decision with one draw to come (although with 7 apparent outs to 2-pair mid, it's not a hard decision, LOL).

These hands are rare. You might go a long time between decisions of how to play a pat boat, but I think that the break-up route will more often lead to FL.

Originally Posted by OneByPhi

If I took over a hand that someone else had set this way, I definitely would play 33 mid in that spot, but I would never have set this way. I think xxx/ 2 9 / J J J is better. Also, I think you should always be thinking about what hands you are trying to make. If your goal is just to make a boat on the bottom, then setting as you did and playing the 9 low to have xxx/ 2 3 / 9 9 J J J after the first draw is fine. But if you're goal is to make FL by making at least FL pair / 2 pair / trips (and of course to leave open the possibility of making bigger hands in mid and bottom), then setting as I did and playing 93 mid to make xxx/ 2 9 3 9 / J J J is better. Your top is open to start accumulating FL cards should they come, you have as many as 7 outs to make 2-pair or trips in the mid (depending on how many of your outs your opp has), and you can still make a boat or quads on the bottom. Sometimes this line will lead to 0 royalties when the FL pair never materializes and the bottom fails to improve, but, just as a chess player will sometimes sacrifice a pawn or even a piece to gain an attacking advantage, sometimes a POFC player should be willing to sacrifice a few sure points early in the play to try to create a path to a monster.

Ok, so if you have X / 29 / JJJ and you get something like 335 for 6th and 7th then the 33 goes mid instead of bottom for boat, right?

Originally Posted by Eric

Ok, so if you have X / 29 / JJJ and you get something like 335 for 6th and 7th then the 33 goes mid instead of bottom for boat, right?

Ya, the whole point of breaking up the boat on the set is to prioritize getting to FL over making the boat. The other steps in the plan are making 2-pair mid and FL pair top, so:

1) if 1st draw comes a small pair, it goes mid to make the 2-pair
2) if 1st draw comes an FL pair, it goes on top
3) if 1st draw brings an FL card and a live card that doesn't immediately help, the FL card goes up and the live card goes mid
4) if worse comes to worse and 1st draw brings 3 bricks, set the livest brick in the mid, the next-livest brick on top, and cross your fingers.

Originally Posted by OneByPhi

Ya, the whole point of breaking up the boat on the set is to prioritize getting to FL over making the boat. The other steps in the plan are making 2-pair mid and FL pair top, so:

1) if 1st draw comes a small pair, it goes mid to make the 2-pair
2) if 1st draw comes an FL pair, it goes on top
3) if 1st draw brings an FL card and a live card that doesn't immediately help, the FL card goes up and the live card goes mid
4) if worse comes to worse and 1st draw brings 3 bricks, set the livest brick in the mid, the next-livest brick on top, and cross your fingers.

Ok, this logic makes sense for our 1st draw (6th and 7th cards).

What about our 2nd draw (8th and 9th cards)?

Originally Posted by Eric

Ok, this logic makes sense for our 1st draw (6th and 7th cards).

What about our 2nd draw (8th and 9th cards)?

I like the play on the 1st draw. With the idea of trying to get to FL I think that's the best play.

As for the 2nd draw, I think it would kind of be best to settle and play the full house (I guess it depends on what the 6th and 7th cards are)

Originally Posted by sam1FTR

I like the play on the 1st draw. With the idea of trying to get to FL I think that's the best play.

As for the 2nd draw, I think it would kind of be best to settle and play the full house (I guess it depends on what the 6th and 7th cards are)

It would be cool if we could run simulations or something. I'm guessing that it still might be better to set something with better front/mid fl potential instead of the boat on the 2nd draw (8th and 9th cards).