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  1. #376
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Def playing JJ on the bottom, not splitting JJ's to make pr T's in mid, not setting JJ in mid when I have a free boat on the first draw.

    If it was QQT, KKT, the I'd def play the FL pair up top.

    If it was AJJ, then that's a tough one. Then I'd prob. play the A up top for FL pair, and one J on bottom. (Since I have to discard a J, then I don't what to reduce options on the mid, which is not my high priority spot to build to 2-pr. The top/bottom are catching filler while I focus on pairing up the mid.)

    The 4th 8 is on the board, so quads isn't an option, not that I would prefer to hold out for quads.
  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Def playing JJ on the bottom, not splitting JJ's to make pr T's in mid, not setting JJ in mid when I have a free boat on the first draw.
    Cool, I'm glad we make the same choice there.
  3. #378
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    How do you play the first draw? What about the second draw?

    Eric



    Discard: 2 3 9 3


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    Discard: A 6 4 A
  4. #379
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    Do you set the made flush or the open ended straight flush draw and 4 card royal flush draw?

    Eric (dealer)
    X / 8 / T J Q K

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    K / A / 8 5 7
  5. #380
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    Interesting hand from the opening set through all 4 draws. What do you think?

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  6. #381
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    I went for the royal flush and got it!

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    Discard: T 9 6 7


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  7. #382
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    2 pair or sfd?

    Eric (dealer)



    Discard: T 7 2 8


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    Discard: J J K 6
  8. #383
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    How do you guys set this?

    Eric



    Discard: 6 Q 5 3


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  9. #384
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    Did my 3rd draw set make it more likely for me to foul?

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  10. #385
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    "third draw set"...? Is that what you kids are calling it these days. I'm so out of the loop.

    On the set: I'd probably play the 3 up top, since Hero is IP and can see Villain has played a pr of 3's.

    As played:
    On 7th street: Looks good
    On 9th street: Looks good
    On 11th street: Def. play J on bottom and secure FL. Now the goal is to avoid foul.

    If you play the A to the mid, you foul. That leaves A up top or T to the mid or T up top.

    Whether you play the A or the T up top, it secures the top vs your opponent, and leaves 1 each of { A, 3 } as your potential foul cards. Since you discard a card on your final draw, you only foul if you draw both of them (~0.85%). Either of these plays makes you 99.15% to avoid foul.

    If you play the T to the mid, that leaves 6 potential foul cards { A, K, T, T, T, 3 }. You have two open hands (top and mid) so you only foul if you draw in such a way that you are are forced to play an A, T, or 3 to the mid. (You can play AKT without foul by playing A up top, K to mid and discard the T.) You only foul if you draw exactly { ATT, AT3, TTT, TT3 }. There is no draw with the K in it that forces a foul. Your potential foul cards are really { A, T, T, T, 3 } and you only foul if you draw 3 of them (~0.34%). You are 99.66% to avoid foul.


    So the best play on 11th street would be to play J on the bottom, T in the mid. However, it's a relatively moot point since once you play the J on the bottom, any choice is over 99% to avoid foul.
  11. #386
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    So the best play on 11th street would be to play J on the bottom, T in the mid. However, it's a relatively moot point since once you play the J on the bottom, any choice is over 99% to avoid foul.
    Ok, this validates my suspicion. It felt like I made a mistake. It isn't a huge mistake on an individual hand but it adds up in the long run so this is good info.

    I guess the lesson learned is to set blanks mid instead of top when we're in danger of fouling because of a weak hand in back.
  12. #387
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    Did I play it right in terms of switching gears on the second draw?

    Eric



    Discard: K 8 4 2


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  13. #388
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Ok, this validates my suspicion. It felt like I made a mistake. It isn't a huge mistake on an individual hand but it adds up in the long run so this is good info.
    I was surprised the margin of difference in outcomes was so thin. I think this is partly due to the extremely small number of foul cards left in the deck (only 1 each of A, K, 3).

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    I guess the lesson learned is to set blanks mid instead of top when we're in danger of fouling because of a weak hand in back.
    You may be right. Setting the T in the mid is better, because while it increases (doubles) the number of potential foul cards hero can draw, it also increases the number of foul cards hero must draw (from 2 to all 3) to be forced to play a foul.

    I suspect the lesson is to keep your options open as much as possible.

    When you play the T to the mid, you keep both the top and mid incomplete (2 cards up top, 4 cards in the mid.) This means that you aren't as likely to be forced into a bad play. It's the option of playing a K to the mid or an { A, 3 } to the top that adds power to Hero's position going into the final draw.
  14. #389
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Did I play it right in terms of switching gears on the second draw?

    Eric



    Discard: K 8 4 2


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    Discard: 5 6 5 5
    It looks marginal. On 9th street, when you decide to take the 2 pr instead of to keep going for the flush, Villain was showing 0 hearts.

    When you set the 3-flush, you were between 66% and 85% to make your flush (depending on how you play { A, K, Q }.

    Assuming you were going to play an A up top, while playing { K, Q } on bottom, that's ~81% on the set. It's still 55% on 9th street when you abandon the flush. If Villain was showing any hearts, this would be below 50%.

    So the general guideline you followed to abandon a 3-flush when it hasn't developed by the 2nd draw is probably a good rule of thumb. However, since you were still fully 100% live on 9th street, you may have decided to wait another draw.
  15. #390
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    So the general guideline you followed to abandon a 3-flush when it hasn't developed by the 2nd draw is probably a good rule of thumb. However, since you were still fully 100% live on 9th street, you may have decided to wait another draw.
    Yeah, I think it is generally too early to switch gears on the 1st draw. By the 3rd draw it almost always makes sense if the opportunity is there. The 2nd draw is kind of in between, switching seems to make sense a large amount of the time there.
  16. #391
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    Too aggro going for fl on the 2nd draw?

    Eric (dealer)



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  17. #392
    I would have taken the same line, although I see that a slightly different aggro line gets there, and there is some support for the argument that it is a line worth taking on this board.

    If you play both the A and K on top on the first draw (increasing your FL outs on the top, but relying on 2-pair or better in the mid to beat an FL pair on top--note: I'm not saying that this is the "best" line, just that it gets there), then on the second draw you play the K to the top and the Ad on the bottom. On the 3rd draw, you play the 55 to the mid, and on the last draw you make 9s and 5s in the mid and the flush on the bottom. I know it's results-oriented to suggest that this is the better line, and as I said, I would have taken your line, but the idea of putting both the A and K on top on the first draw with one A already showing in opp's hand is certainly worth considering. It gives you 5 FL outs on top instead of just 3, and makes you less dependent on catching an A to support an FL pair on top (once you play that A in the middle to give you 2 9 A in the mid, you almost need to catch one of the last two aces to make a mid that supports KK on top). Imagine that on the second draw you had caught a brick instead of the A. Then putting the K on top is much more problematic (when you catch both the A and K as you did, you just have to commit to the line you began on the first draw, but if you catch only the K it's a lot murkier).

    I think reasonable aggro play pays off in POFC, and I don't think there's any reason not to go for FL on the second draw on the line you took, but both of us might consider the merit of the alternative line in spots like this where one of the Aces is showing.
  18. #393
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    Interesting, I hadn't considered that aggro move on the first draw. As for the second draw, I thought about putting that A on bottom for 3 to a flush. Had I done that then I might have put the 9 mid for a pair instead of putting the K on top.
  19. #394
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    Kings on top 3rd draw?

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    Discard: 9 5 K 6


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  20. #395
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    On 11th street, if you set K's up top, then you have 4 outs to make 2 pair in the mid, and you are good with the 2 outs to trips being covered by the flush on the bottom.

    With 6 outs on the final draw, and you only need to draw any 1 of them, you have ~55% chance of avoiding foul.

    Since avoiding foul wins you a trip to FL, I'd say it's worth it.
  21. #396
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    With 6 outs on the final draw, and you only need to draw any 1 of them, you have ~55% chance of avoiding foul.

    Since avoiding foul wins you a trip to FL, I'd say it's worth it.
    Should we do ev comparisons?

    Let's make some simplifications:
    -us getting to fl: extra 10 point bonus
    -us playing it safe on 3rd draw: 100% not fouling (not technically true but close enough)
    -no top royalties if we play it safe
    -all he has is AA mid so if we gamble we'll say we scoop 100% (not technically true but close enough)
    -he has a good chance of fouling and not beating AA on bottom.

    We have the back with our flush. If we foul we lose the 4 royalty points and we could lose another 6 if he doesn't foul.
  22. #397
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    Is setting QQ on top on the first draw too aggro?

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    Discard: 5 Q 2 8


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  23. #398
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    How do you play the third draw?

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    Discard: J J 5 7


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    Discard: Q 3 8 4
  24. #399
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    How do you set this? Aces go mid and king goes top but what about the 4 and J.

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  25. #400
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Prob strongest is to play for pair-based hand on bottom, so getting 2 live cards there ASAP is important. Since you're OOP, then all cards are equivalently live.

    You're not too worried about beating your opponents bottom hand. You're just trying to max out your shot at avoiding foul when you drop a FL set.

    The value of the cards is almost not even relevant. You decided to set AA in the mid, and you need to protect that aggressively. Pair based hands must have at least 2 card values, and any 2-par+ is good enough. Even if you have a chance at a straight or a flush, that only gives you more ways to improve.

    So, having set AA in the mid, you must set 2 cards to the bottom if you want the strongest protection. Since you've already picked one of your remaining 3 cards to go up top, then the final 2 (whatever their value) go to the bottom.
  26. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    So, having set AA in the mid, you must set 2 cards to the bottom if you want the strongest protection. Since you've already picked one of your remaining 3 cards to go up top, then the final 2 (whatever their value) go to the bottom.
    Part of me agrees with this. Another part of me saw that the 4 was my only spade and setting the J down with it would stop any flush or straight draw from developing.
  27. #402
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I'm not sure there's too much value in a 1 card flush OOP. (~28.5% to catch a flush, assuming you'd play the K up top. I.e. 11 outs over 4 draws where a success means drawing at least 4 outs.)

    So the question is: Does placing J4 on the bottom, and making all straights and flushes impossible cost more in value than getting an extra draw to pair the extra card?

    Bear in mind that you only need 2 pr to avoid foul and you can still draw into a full house or quads. If you miss the flush/straight, then you not only foul, you lose the FL bid.

    I think the safest rout is the pair-based hands... and since you're strong for a FL play, I don't think it's worth chasing the flushes and straights with a 1-card set.

    The important point I'm overlooking is an EV calc, but I don't even know how to approach it on the set.
  28. #403
    Did I set it right?

    Jessie99 (dealer)
    Q / J J / 6 T

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  29. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jessie99 View Post
    Did I set it right?

    Jessie99 (dealer)
    Q / J J / 6 T

    GlassJoeBot
    Q / T / K K 6
    Setting JJ in the middle is a low EV play, usually. I see that you're hoping to catch a flush on the bottom, but you're IP, with 3 blockers to your flush already (since you play the J outside the FD). This makes you ~41% to catch the flush.

    If you had played KK, AA in the mid, instead of JJ, then I'd have different thoughts. As it stands, the JJ can't protect a FL pair on top by itself, and you set a Q up top, implying that you want to pair Q's. So you're shooting for JJ's up in the mid, which is a strong 2 pr to protect on the bottom.

    I see why you felt to go for the flush given this analysis, but I think a set of Q/6/JJT will work out for you more often in this case.
  30. #405
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    Was i too aggro?

    Eric



    Discard: 9 A 5 4


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  31. #406
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    Did I set it right?

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    X / A A 8 / 6 9

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  32. #407
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    Too aggro setting kk on top 2nd draw with just one more 8 left in the deck?

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  33. #408
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Was i too aggro?
    No. You got a difficult hand to play, but discarding the A on 9th street was the right move, and NOT discarding the A on 11th street was good, too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Did I set it right?

    Eric
    X / A A 8 / 6 9
    Looks good.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Too aggro setting kk on top 2nd draw with just one more 8 left in the deck?
    It's close, but with 2 draws at 4 outs, and a success is drawing at least 1 out... you've got 58% equity to avoid foul.

    If by some miracle you complete the boat on 11th street, then you'd have even more equity going into the final draw due to the fact that trips in the mid is not a foul anymore.
  34. #409
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    MMM,

    Cool, I'm glad you didn't see any major mistakes there.
  35. #410
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    I think shifting gears from flush to trips on the first draw is ok while shifting for a single pair is wrong. Shifting on first for 2 pair is ok some of the time I guess. What do you think?

    Eric



    Discard: 2 8 6 6


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  36. #411
    Did I set it right?

    Jessie99
    X / 3 9 J / T A

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  37. #412
    Eric's Avatar
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    Did u give up the fl draw and set 99 on top?

    Eric



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  38. #413
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Did u give up the fl draw and set 99 on top?

    Eric



    Discard: 9 7 J 2


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    Discard: 2 6 7 T
    It's a pretty close call here, but I would not have given up on the FL draw. Since there are 3 Qs remaining, you have a about a 30% chance of hitting one, which would net you around 15 points (7 for royalties and ~8 for FL). So the EV of going for FL is 15x0.3=4.5. Setting the 9s up top is 4 points, so you would be slightly better off going for FL. If there were only 2 Qs live, however, I would set 9s up top because then, you would only have a 20% chance of hitting one on the last draw for a EV of 15x0.2=3 points.
  39. #414
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    xuster22,

    You're right, it was very close.
  40. #415
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    Is kk up top on the first draw too aggro?

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  41. #416
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    I guess it was a mistake to set aa mid instead of completing the flush?

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  42. #417
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    What do you do on the third draw?

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  43. #418
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    Weird hand. How do you play the first draw? What about the third draw?

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  44. #419
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    3 to a straight flush beats 66 as the bottom set, right? How do you play the 3rd draw?

    Eric



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  45. #420
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Weird hand. How do you play the first draw? What about the third draw?

    Eric



    Discard: 6 5 K 2


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    Discard: A 7 9 A
    I like putting the KK in mid there. If you happen to get the last K you should be able to avoid a foul. 3rd draw looks fine to me.
  46. #421
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    3 to a straight flush beats 66 as the bottom set, right? How do you play the 3rd draw?

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    kind of confused, you weren't able to set 66 on the bottom? as played it looks perfect.
  47. #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by givememyleg View Post
    kind of confused, you weren't able to set 66 on the bottom? as played it looks perfect.
    Yeah, not sure why I thought 66 was an option.
  48. #423
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    Do you set AAA bottom or AA mid and 3-flush bottom?

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  49. #424
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I never split trips for a 3-flush.
  50. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    I never split trips for a 3-flush.
    I wouldn't consider it either outside of QQQ, KKK and AAA. You might be correct that those shouldn't be split either but at least they make the decision closer.
  51. #426
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    Crazy set but it worked out...

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    Discard: Q T 9 2


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    Discard: 3 9 5 5
  52. #427
    Did I play it right?

    BaboJo (dealer)



    Discard: 2 3 3 T


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    Discard: Q 7 6 4
  53. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThinhVanPham View Post
    Did I play it right?
    I can't see BaboJo's cards so it is hard to say for sure.

    Your 5 card set looks fine though.
  54. #429
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    This was a weird hand, what do you think?

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  55. #430
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    Not setting the 6 on top with the 3rd draw worked out nicely.

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  56. #431
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    Did I play it right, was this line too aggro?

    Eric



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  57. #432
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThinhVanPham View Post
    Did I play it right?

    BaboJo (dealer)



    Discard: 2 3 3 T


    ThinhVanPham



    Discard: Q 7 6 4
    Your play on 7th street is confusing. You discard a Q, after setting a Q up top for a FL hand.
    You play the J to the top, when you could have made pr J's on the bottom.
    You played the 6 to the mid, when you could have played it to the bottom for your flush draw.

    Really, it's confusing the whole way through the hand. Seeing the Villain's cards would help, but it's hard to see what your end-game plan was on 9th street.
  58. #433
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    This was a weird hand, what do you think?
    I think you luckboxed some rungood, first of all.

    I think your play on 11th street to drop the K and Q on your bottom for the flush was prob the best move, too (I know, I know... FL cards are not flush cards, I always say). In this case you had big damage control to think about, and you saved an almost sure foul.

    WP.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Not setting the 6 on top with the 3rd draw worked out nicely.
    ... despite being a -EV play.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Did I play it right, was this line too aggro?
    I think this looks pretty straight forward on a brief analysis. Did I miss something?
  59. #434
    Did I play it right?

    Mi1km4n



    Discard: 3 J T T


    GlassJoeBot (dealer)



    Discard: 2 3 4 2
  60. #435
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    I think this looks pretty straight forward on a brief analysis. Did I miss something?
    No, you didn't miss anything.

    Mi1km4n,

    I probably set Q / A 4 / 7 8 instead of Q / A 8 / 7 4. However, you got to FL your way so it worked out.
  61. #436
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post

    Mi1km4n,

    I probably set Q / A 4 / 7 8 instead of Q / A 8 / 7 4
    Ditto. I think Q / A 4 / 7 8 is demonstrably better. It much more easily allows a back-door to 2-pair in the mid if an Ace doesn't come and the back makes only 2-pair (i.e. you sneak into the land with something like QQT / A4433 / 88776); with Q / A 8 / 7 4, 8s up beats 7s up, so either the back needs to boat or straight or the mid has to catch an Ace. So Eric's set makes the mid stronger and more flexible. Furthermore, 87 is connected, whereas 74 has two gaps, which makes it significantly harder to make a straight in back.With 87, you can catch T9, 96, or 65 to make an open-ended straight draw, but only 65 gives you one if you set 74. So, both in the mid and the back, your hand is more flexible and stronger with Eric's line.
  62. #437
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    How do you play the 3rd draw?

    Eric



    Discard: 5 7 7 Q


    BaldBullBot (dealer)



    Discard: 3 4 5 8
  63. #438
    Did I play it right?

    datronic (dealer)



    Discard: A


    GlassJoeBot



    Discard: 4 2 5 7
  64. #439
    Eric's Avatar
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    Looks like a foul. QJT8 flush mid beats QJT7 flush bottom. Just flip the mid and bottom hands and I like it - trips on top are a rarity.
  65. #440
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    It was interesting getting KKA.

    Eric



    Discard: 2 K 8 5


    BaldBullBot (dealer)



    Discard: Q 2 4 T
  66. #441
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    First draw do u go 3 to the straight on bottom or pair of tens?

    Eric



    Discard: T 3 7 3


    BaldBullBot (dealer)



    Discard: Q K 3 8
  67. #442
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    On the initial set do you go 3 hearts in back or 2 sixes? How do you play the third draw?

    Eric



    Discard: 9 5 2 8


    BaldBullBot (dealer)



    Discard: 3 9 Q 4
  68. #443
    Did I play it right?

    acg123 (dealer)



    Discard: T 4 8 J


    GlassJoeBot



    Discard: Q 5 3 9
  69. #444
    Quote Originally Posted by acg123 View Post
    Did I play it right?

    acg123 (dealer)



    Discard: T 4 8 J


    GlassJoeBot



    Discard: Q 5 3 9
    First, you got dealt a really awful hand, sorry. But it would be better to set XXX /5 3 2 /9 7

    The loose plan is to make 9s-up (or 7s-up) in back and 5s-up (or 3s-up) in the mid and to backdoor an FL pair on top. Of course, you would be open to making a full house in back or two straights if the cards should fall that way, but that won't happen all that often. On the first draw, play the 3 in the mid and the 7 in back, giving you a pair in mid and in back. On the second draw put the K on top (to allow an FL draw) and the 6 in back, still with an eye to a 2-pair/2-pair/FL pair structure. On the third draw, put the 2 in the mid, making 2-pair, and the 8 on top as a consolation draw to a 3-point pair of 8s if things work out that way. On the last draw make your hand by playing the 6 in back and brick the top with the J. You don't make any royalties, but you avoid fouling, and you end up winning the mid and top.
  70. #445
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    This is an ugly starting hand imo. Do you set the gutter on bottom out of position?

    Eric



    Discard: 8 T 6 3


    BaldBullBot (dealer)



    Discard: 2 J 8 2
  71. #446
    Did I play it right?

    epicname (dealer)



    Discard: 4 Q 2 6


    BaldBullBot



    Discard: 8 3 7 6
  72. #447
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by epicname View Post
    Did I play it right?

    epicname (dealer)



    Discard: 4 Q 2 6


    BaldBullBot



    Discard: 8 3 7 6
    Play more aggressively at FL.
    You set the Q up top, don't discard a Q on the 2nd draw.




    Discard: 4 7 2 5
  73. #448
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    Maybe we don't set the open ended straight on the bottom since we're holding 2 kings which means 2 less outs?

    Eric (dealer)



    Discard: A 3 3 2


    BaldBullBot



    Discard: 7 8 8 4
  74. #449
    Did I set it right?

    babar1 (dealer)
    T J K / Q J T 9 8 / 2 2 2 A A

    BaldBullBot
    X / 4 3 / J Q Q
  75. #450
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    JJK/AAQ98/222TT
    earns 2 more royalties.

    When setting a boat, remember that the power is in the 3-of-a-kind part of the hand. Placing 222AA is exactly equal in hand value to 22233. Since only one person can have 3 of a card value, no boat-over-baot situation is determined by the pair.
    When playing a boat, always use the smallest pair possible, so you may use larger pairs where their card value matters.

    If you were playing for the straight in the mid, that's OK, but you can get more points from placing a pair of TT+ up top than for a straight in the mid. In general, play for highest royalties on FL hands.


    (This is the pineapple thread, why no discard?)

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