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So I'm new here because I'm trying to learn more about online poker, but I do play alot live. and this thread really illustrates the differences between the two games. So here's a take on the hand from someone who is a frequent (10+ hours per week) live player.
Villain has played extremely tight preflop, maybe playing 6 or 7 hands in 3 hours. I have seen him cbet when he does raise. He recently double barreled me with just under half pot bets on a Qs7d6hJs and folded to my turn raise
Ok, so we have a TAG. He plays good hands, bets when checked to, and folds when raised. TAG. But he's a bad TAG because 7 hands in 3 hours is not enough 'AG'. Conclusion: typical live rec/reg grinder whose actions are mostly dictated by his own cards and how they connect with the board. The players behind him, just called in position. Conclusion: passive, probably playing 'fit or fold'.
So for those reasons, I raise pre-flop. It really doesn't matter what our cards are since we can generate +EV simply by A) taking it down pre-flop, or B) taking it down with a c-bet against a narrowed field of fit or fold players on the flop. The fact that we have a pocket pair is merely insurance equity. At this point, our plan for the hand should not include a showdown.
On the flop.....
Lead out. People don't bluff or semi-bluff nearly as much as they do online. They are total showdown monkeys.
The PFR isn't going to cbet bluff into three people, two of which are in position. And the two players in position have already shown their intention to take a passive line. In my experience with live players, you'll see Qx and flush draws get checked here alot. We can't let that happen. It's too much missed value.
As played, it appears that the PFR has something, which was a lucky break for us. As played, raising is correct, but we're a little late to the party at this point.
I think the turn bet is perhaps a bit thin, considering his range is so strong.
Disagree. There are a lot of variables in his range that could swing us from a 60/40 favorite to a 60/40 dog. I guess that averages out to about 50/50. So betting and not betting are probably both neutral in a one-street vaccuum. However, if we bet now, and increase the size of the pot, our river bet will obviously be bigger. If we have the best hand, and are betting for value at the end, we obviously want more value. We set that up by betting now.
Also, if we do have an equity advantage, it's probably because V has flush draws in his range like AJdd, which may not pay off a big river bet at all. So we need to get our money now.
It's interesting if we get raised here, but since we didn't, I won't speculate.
On the river...
He has 10 combos I beat, let's say he folds those to a jam 50% (5 calling combos * 900 = $4,500), 6 combos of sets beat me and I lose my stack (6*-900= -$5,400).
That's not quite how the math works. If you're saying he has 16 possible hands, 6 that beat you, and 10 that lose (but only 5 will call), then the math looks like this... (for simplicity, I'm rounding the size of the existing pot to 900)
You bet, he calls, you lose....
6/16 x -900 = -337.50
You bet, he calls, you win
5/16 x 1800 = 562.50
You bet, he folds, you win
5/16 x 900 = 281.25
Total +EV = 506.25. Not bad, but I really think we're banking on too many calls from worse here.
What if we bet less than a shove....like $350, and he calls with all 10 worse hands?
You bet, he calls, you lose
6/16 x -350 = -131.25
You bet, he calls, you win
10/16 x 1250 = 781.25
Total +EV = $650. Even more than the shove.
And yes, you can bet/fold on the river. You can bet $899 and still correctly fold to the shove. There is no way in the world that you ever get bluff raised in a live game here. And I think it's wildly unlikely that you see a TAG over play a one or two pair hand. 99.9% of live grinders will just call here with any non-nut hand. If you get raised, he's got the goods. So odds be damned in that spot, just fold.
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