an interesting hand from the POFC final

I thought MadMojoMonkey made a really interesting decision on this hand (hand 12 from the POFC tourney final). I'm in FL, but Mojo comes up big by making a gamble on the first draw.

MadMojoMonkey (Dealer)



Discard: 9c 4c 6c 4s
OneByPhi




When Mojo caught KK9 on the first draw, he played both Ks in the mid. I think I would have mechanically played K9 to the mid, which still leaves open 2-pair as a plan for the bottom, not because I had really thought it out, but because I didn't "need" trips in the middle for my FL draw and this seems to leave more flexibility on the bottom.

But the more I think about it, the deeper the spot looks to me. Since opp is in FL, making trip Ks in the middle probably often saves a scoop when MMM completes the straight draw (a 6-high straight draw that is very likely to lose against an FL bottom hand) but does not catch a Q on top.

So, I guess the things to balance in this spot are:
How often are you going to catch a Q and make FL?
How much harder is it to make a hand when you play both Ks in the mid (eliminating 2-pair and trips as possibilities for the bottom)?
How often does this play prevent a scoop when the Q doesn't come?
What is the likelihood of drawing the straight outs?

I probably need MMM to figure the math on this one (it's over my head). But I think this was an interesting spot, and I'd love to hear what others think about it.

I don't like it. It seems like a big gamble with such a weak bottom and the only benefit is 2 more points (also not being scooped like obp said). A pair of Kings in the mid is powerful enough with a Q up top. I guess there is the super rare chance of hitting the QQQ / KKK / straight but I'd choose to play it safe here.

I also would have set this differently, probably something like KQ / 3 / 64

Originally Posted by OneByPhi

What is the likelihood of drawing the straight outs?

I also think this is probably the most important Q. I hate the set on the bottom but maybe my intuition is way off.

I may have done the 5 card set the same way. As far as the 6th and 7th cards (choosing from KK9), I'd likely put one king in the middle and one in front. I'm thinking that if I get to fl then there's a decent chance I don't get scooped.

I seriously considered playing K9 in the mid, there. I wrote-off splitting the K's top/mid, because I thought it'd be hard to protect from foul with KKQ on top beating KKxxx in the mid.

My gut tells me that a 1-gap SD on the initial set has over 50% equity to make a straight. Regardless, having set the low straight, I expect to foul if I do not complete the straight. On the first draw, I'm still considering the bottom hand a straight.

So... in the moment, I'm thinking... I expect to foul if I don't make a straight on the bottom, so there is really no additional risk assumed by putting trips in the mid.

I think OneByPhi brings up a good point about potentially abandoning the 3-card SD for trips or 2-pair, though... which would be a foul with trip K's in the mid... so I'm not sure I did the "best" play with the KK's there. It did work out in this example, but let's not be results-oriented.

I think that if the chances of catching a Q are high enough, then setting K9 mid probably is the best play because it offers significantly more flexibility on the bottom. But on the hands when the Q doesn't come, since opp is in FL, the 6-high straight on the bottom--even it it gets made--almost always loses to an FL bottom hand, and having just KK in the mid and Q-high on top probably mostly results in being scooped. So playing KK to make trips in the mid not only adds 2 in royalties when the straight comes home on the bottom, but often saves 5 more points by preventing a scoop, so the net gain is 7 points--the same total that QQ on top is worth in royalties.

The implied odds of making it to FL are good enough that if the odds of getting a Q on the next 3 draws are high enough, then K9 is probably the best play, but considering that playing K9 will often get you scooped anyway when the Q doesn't come, it might be worth taking on a higher risk of fouling to avoid being scooped. I posted this hand because my grasp of the math of this spot is still so shaky that I really wasn't sure how to balance those concerns. I often play hands like these by "feel," going for it when I am running good and playing conservatively when I'm not. I was just wondering if anyone could mathematically demonstrate that either the KK play or the K9 play had siginificantly higher expectation.