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I think that if the chances of catching a Q are high enough, then setting K9 mid probably is the best play because it offers significantly more flexibility on the bottom. But on the hands when the Q doesn't come, since opp is in FL, the 6-high straight on the bottom--even it it gets made--almost always loses to an FL bottom hand, and having just KK in the mid and Q-high on top probably mostly results in being scooped. So playing KK to make trips in the mid not only adds 2 in royalties when the straight comes home on the bottom, but often saves 5 more points by preventing a scoop, so the net gain is 7 points--the same total that QQ on top is worth in royalties.
The implied odds of making it to FL are good enough that if the odds of getting a Q on the next 3 draws are high enough, then K9 is probably the best play, but considering that playing K9 will often get you scooped anyway when the Q doesn't come, it might be worth taking on a higher risk of fouling to avoid being scooped. I posted this hand because my grasp of the math of this spot is still so shaky that I really wasn't sure how to balance those concerns. I often play hands like these by "feel," going for it when I am running good and playing conservatively when I'm not. I was just wondering if anyone could mathematically demonstrate that either the KK play or the K9 play had siginificantly higher expectation.
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