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I think his lack of a re-raise on the turn followed by a check on the river rules out the very strong hands (Big A's, FH's). Also I think the check on the river indicates that he has something with showdown value. Your read suggests that he would fire the river if he needed to. So, Based on that, how's this for villain's range:
AT, A8, A7, A6, A3, A2, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98
How much of that range could we get to fold with a bluff? I wasnt' there, but if I thought I could get the villain to fold that range 1/3 of the time, you could profitably bet 800-1200 here.
Is 1/3 possible? Maybe. It's villain dependent. But it certainly seems plausible that A2 and A3 could fold along with T9 and 89. That's 34 of the 119 possible combos in that range. So we only need the rest of those hands to fold 8% of the time in order to fold out a full 1/3 of the villain's range.
I realize that's a big IF. But it's 25/50, not 1/2.
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