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Final stages of a tournament: Shove/Fold time hand question
I played in my first proper live tournament on monday i.e. not a home game with friends but a game with people who play poker online etc and know their stuff. It was a £5 rebuy sat to a £55 tournament.
On the final table I am in the CO and have been folded to, I have 20,000 stack and blinds are 1500/3000 and we are on the bubble(7 paid 8 left) so it is shove fold time, the button SB and BB all have around 25,000, I look down at KQh and decide to shove as all 3 left to act seem to be waiting it out to slip into the money and no one wants to be bubble boy. The guy on the button goes into the tank and eventually calls flipping over AQo.
He is delighted when he sees my KQh and the opinion of the table seems to be that I am CRUSHED which is true as I am completely and utterly dominated. BUT, I think this is besides the point. I think that I made a good move and the caller made a bad move. My reasoning is that I had a ton of fold equity in that the 3 left to act would be calling a tiny range so I maybe have 85%+ fold equity and if I am called then the worst case scenario is I am a 20% underdog so all in all I think my move was good. I think that the caller's move was bad because he has to think about the hands that I am shoving which are most likely (TT+, AQs+, AK, KQs) from this position and he is at best a 70% favourite, most of the time he is flipping and the rest of the time he is CRUSHED! All he has is showdown value and this is probably one of the best hands he could have hoped that I had as he is a 70% favourite. So I think I made a more +EV move than him...
As all the poker books say: you have to have a better hand to call a raise/shove than to make a raise/shove.
Any thoughts? Is my analysis of the situation incorrect? Who made the better move, me or the caller?
Thanks!
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