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Facing a turn 3-bet with AAA and a nut flush draw

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  1. #1
    koolmoe's Avatar
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    Default Facing a turn 3-bet with AAA and a nut flush draw

    Villain is 74/13 and tends to crank up the aggression on the later streets trying to push opponents off the pot.

    Is calling here too weak? Is capping spewage?

    Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A.
    Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero caps, Button calls, BB calls.

    Flop: (12.50 SB) J, Q, 8 (3 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, Button folds, BB calls.

    Turn: (11.25 BB) A (2 players)
    BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero ???
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  2. #2
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    I think I would cap it. You've got 9 outs to the flush if you're behind to the straight, 7 if he has another flush, plus 10 outs to fill up for your boat, if you're behind as well. I cap it here and slow down on the river if you don't improve and face aggression.


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  3. #3
    pokerfanatic's Avatar
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    I’d give her a cap no real reason not to... you have SOO MANY redraws if your behind anyways... NUT FD (figure 9 outs max 7 if he has the Flush)... 10 outs to boat or hit quads (assuming he doesn't have 9T of diamonds)...

    that's at least 17 outs up to 19 outs... 17:1 on a call but 19:1 pot if you raise... there is no way the guy folds his hand IMO...

    When you hit the river even though you cap the turn I think you get 2bb+ in there... so really your raise has an expected outcome of 3bb+ when you hit... and only like -2bb when you miss so in reality it gains 1bb on avg extra in the long term...
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  4. #4
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I didn't notice the 74/13 increased aggression until after I looked at the hand.

    I was gonna advise calling the 3 bet and calling a river that doesn't fill you up - but with those stats and your read I like capping the turn.
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  5. #5
    koolmoe's Avatar
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    Yeah, OK. I capped the turn and called the river unimproved, losing to 5d4d.
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