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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878
I just called because I believe I have the best hand here like 95% of the time and I want to keep everyone in the pot.
This is really bad. Flatting is debatable and I don't know how these games play, but this reasoning is awful. There are a lot more considerations than just your likelihood of having the best hand and the fact that it's not two-toned.
This is an over-simplification but hopefully a better one than what you just gave: two-pair is going to get coolered here pretty much no matter what (unless future cards kill their action), so think about how to take Qx along for the longest, most unpleasant ride possible. You have a lot of money left to get in and you're not playing people who can be relied upon to do all the betting for you. There are 4 bets to get the money in and only 3 streets to do it. We should not be surprised at all if this is our last chance at getting a raise in on any street, since passive players often pot control turns with single-pair hands on dry boards; if they didn't, they wouldn't be called passive players. Again, this doesn't automatically mean the conclusion is that we have to raise here, but you should understand the steep odds you're laying against yourself for getting stacks with anything that wasn't going to continue to a flop raise anyway.
Also, realize that we're 3-way, our set is low, and both players have a ton of midpairs in their range. Also, anything lower than your set completes straights (usually 20+ combos of them), and anything that pairs the board will kill a lot of your action from two pairs. Not to give you paranoia over having a fucking set on a fucking Q52r board, but just to let you know that even on a dry board, things do aft go awry with low sets in 3-way pots.
And since you're posting a hand after we get action when a 3 rolls off, this advice is all-the-more relevant.
Also, from villain's perspective, what the fuck could we possibly have? Unfortunately we have a super tight image, so people might just put us on a set and fold if it's that sort of game, but anyone with any kind of doubting instinct will get taken for a ride here.
Anyway, with such a low SPR against players that I'm assuming are passive until proven otherwise, I'm inclined to take the driver's seat unless I have a good reason to act otherwise. And if these games play at all loose as has been mentioned earlier, then I'm putting the pressure on and assuming they're going to make expensive mistakes often enough for it to be well worth me not playing small ball with midpairs and skittish kickers. Again, that's an oversimplification in-and-of itself, but it's an improvement on ~"my hand is awesome and the flop is rainbow, so it's time to flip to the slowplay chapter in our books."~
(A meta game note: the fact that the reg won 80bb on the flop on an almost identical board probably makes it less likely that he'll give us unnecessary action here. When live regs are feeling good about how they're playing, they're more willing to take a you-win-some-you-lose-some approach and won't push their luck winning a big pot with a mediocre hand twice. But this is secondary to everything else above, hence the parenthesis.)
As played, I'm not folding. Unfortunately, all 20 combos of straights make perfect sense, especially for MP, but we have outs in the worst case scenario, and there are still enough two pairs and worse sets to make calling profitable.
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