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For Chopper: Ragnar4's stupid chart theory.
Okay. Before you read any further in this post Grab a piece of paper. But a big Cross in the middle of it. On the top of the paper write correct, on the bottom of the paper write incorrect. On the left side of the paper write bad, and on the right side of the paper write good. We now have a way to represent every poker decision you’ll ever make. But how? What does the good/correct quadrant represent? How can something be incorrect but good?
I get bad/incorrect, but can you give me any glaring examples of bad/correct?
I think first, I need to start with David Sklansky’s Theory of Poker.
“Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents’ cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time your opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have if they could see your cards, you lose.
Quite an eyeful I know but I need you to, read it, over and over again, take it in, don’t move on until you drink in everything that this paragraph is really trying to communicate to you, because to be honest, there’s a lot.
If this is the first time you’ve ever seen this paragraph, it really is a “Like, duh, obviously” moment. I thought to myself when I read this paragraph for the first time “No shit Shirlock, if he saw I had AA he would never call, and if I saw he had AA I would never call.” This paragraph in itself describes EXACTLY why reads are important. Sadly, reads are not 100% you can’t look at an opponents action and put them exactly on one hand with any sort of accuracy. I soulread every once in a while, we all do, but not nearly enough to base our livelihood on narrowing your opponent down to one hand and one hand only. Which is why you have to look into the paragraph a little deeper, to really get into the meat and potatoes of what I’m trying to describe with this “theory.
If you take a close look at the graph, you’ll notice there are 4 quadrants devided up between 2 separate sets of qualifiers.
Correct/Incorrect
Good/Bad
In attempting to describe this theory, a lot of people want to amalgamate good and correct. You simply cannot combine the two, because it’s just not an applicable comparison. Lets break this down a little bit further.
Correct/Incorrect:
This is by far the hardest concept to grasp, because correct and incorrect can only be measured by whether or not you are forcing your opponent to make a mistake with your actions. This is where we make our money, when someone else makes a mistake. Situations in limit where correct and incorrect analysis come into play are derived from calculations of EV, If your EV is + and your opponents EV is – the action is a correct action. If your EV is + and your opponents EV is +, it is incorrect, along with both players sharing EV - , or if you control the minus EV while your opponent has the plus EV it is also incorrect.
In situations where there are more than 2 players in the pot, (which is like every other hand in limit), as long as one player not wearing your shirt is making the minus EV decision, then your decisions are correct.
Lets look at some examples of correct and incorrect decisions
1 Calling a gutshot with 75o to the nuts on a rainbow board with only 5 bets in the pot is incorrect. Your opponent is +EV with his bet, you are –EV with your call.
2 Raising from the button, with the intent to cap as long as 2 other players come along, with 9 or more clean outs on the flop against a first position donk bet and 3 other callers.
(IE 4 players in the pot, SB bets everyone calls to you, you raise) Correct, because you’re bloating the pot with overlay.
3 Betting 1 bb into a 100 bb pot when your opponent is on a flush draw is incorrect, because your bet isn’t causing him to make a mistake (don’t stop reading here, get to the bad/good part, because this is incorrect, but good)
4 Calling 1 BB into a 15BB pot, with a bluff catcher, because you estimate (very correctly) that your opponent is bluffing 8% of the time in this spot on the river, this is correct
5 Checking with the intention to raise from 1st position on the flop with middle pair because the guy on the button is very aggressive, and you want to give a gutshot straight draw immediately to your left bad odds to draw in this 10sb pot. Correct, because you’re cutting the odds in half with the check raise for the guy to draw to his gutshot, even though your putting more money in the pot as an underdog, you’re also buying yourself possible outs in some situations the swing in the chance your opponent will fold + the outs you’ll buy yourself = more than your fair share of the pot
Bad/good is the direct measurement of whether or not you would have made the same decision, or your opponent would have made the same decision had they known what you had before you showed down.
(Examples shown are continuations of previous examples)
1) You folded your gutshot, but if you had known that your opponent had 23 of clubs and was bluffing while you had 75 and were drawing to an even better hand, you made a bad play, by folding here. So your play was “correct/bad” Ironically had you called, it would have been “incorrect/good”
Obviously at this point, your estimation of what your opponent has, is extremely important as to your evaluation of your opponents hand. Seriously though, who looks at a 75o gutshot hand and says, “I may be ahead here”?
2) If your opponents knew that you were only trying to bloat the pot here, only one guy would be re-raising, and everyone else would be folding. So, your “Flop-Doubler” here is correct, because no-ones folding for one more bet in this huge pot, and the other guy may even pop you back. Good play because other people are playing opposite of the way they should be playing in this instance “Correct/Good”
3) You’re still ahead, and if he doesn’t catch his flush, you win the monster pot. So this play is “incorrect/good.” Obviously if he does catch, and you make your crying call, this would extend into “correct/bad” Because you called down with the worst hand.
4) In this instance, your crying call caught the bluff, you made the same play you would have made, had you seen your opponents hand good play so we have “correct/good”
5) Turns out the guy you were trying to force out with your check raise, the one you were certain was on a gutshot… actually had a set of fours. You wouldn’t have made this play had you seen your opponents hand… Incorrect/Bad.
Ok.. So now that we have a clear understanding of the 4 types of plays you can make at the table. So how do we apply it?
We have to understand that every, and I mean EVERY play we want to make, will be in the good/correct quadrant of the chart you just drew. That’s where the maximum value comes from in all of our plays, we’re making the same play we would have if we could see our opponents hand AND he’s making a mistake countering our actions.
We do this by picking our decision, looking at the size of the pot, and asking ourselves, is this good/correct? Or is it bad/correct? Good/incorrect? Finally is it Bad/Incorrect?
Is there anything I can do to get it up to Good/Correct? Is there any way for me to elevate it to the next level above the one I’m at if I can’t get it to good/correct?
I hope, this helps clarify limit poker for you just a little bit more, and helps you recognize some of the decisions that you’ve been making in the past. Certainly limit is a game of pressing your tiniest edges, and once this idea occurred to me, and I mulled it over, my limit game improved immensely. Because I was always looking for the best play in any situation
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