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Ok got down to business and worked out some ranges:
Villian might call the cbet on the flop with something like {ATo-AQo, A2s-AQs, TT,99, 88(discounted), 44(discounted), various club combos like KcQc, let's say 7 combos}
Now once the turn has checked through and I've shown signs of giving up I think it's reasonable to expect villain to bet just about the entire range excluding say 99 and TT, so all Trips, all missed draws.
If I've done my math right, that's like 5.8% of combos, and his continue to raise should be much much narrower - let's say he will call with AQ, shove boats and fold the rest. {AQ, A8s, A4s, 88, 44} which is 1.5%, so he's folding about 75% of his river bet range to a raise? I'm risking 72bb to win the current pot of 62bb, so I need him to fold 54% or more to bluff? If he would call as wide as AT though, he doesn't fold enough for us to bluff profitably, and possibly I shouldn't be thinking about making villains fold trips with AT at live 1-1 poker...
If he does call with AT, bet/folding my straight seems good here. If he folds AT and AJ... I'm 50/50 and I break even, and he folds enough of his betting range to bluff with all my missed flush draws, possibly even wider?
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