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Binked a river gutshot vs a TAGG reg

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  1. #1

    Default Binked a river gutshot vs a TAGG reg

    1-1 Casino game, effective stacks ~190bb. A pretty solid reg is the villian here, I don't have so many hands on him but he 3bet my UTG+1 open from MP with A8s once (I folded pre, a fish went all the way to showdown with him).

    We're 7-8 handed here, villain in UTG has put on the straddle and it's folded to me on the BU. I open to 6bb with 7c5c.

    Flop comes As 4c 8c

    He checks, I bet 9 into 14. He thinks for a bit and calls.

    Turn comes Ah.

    He looks like he's thinking about betting, thinks a bit and checks. I decide to check behind since the A increases the chances of him calling again with TT or whatever.

    River is a 6h.

    He instantly bets about pot, 31 or something. Is it ok at this point to raise/fold, having put in about 50% of my chips? I raised to 72, planning on folding to a shove because I don't think he comes over the top with AK (i.e. no worse than a boat), but will likely call a raise with worse.
  2. #2
    My thoughts at the table were that the straight is pretty well disguised and if I could make it look bluffy I could get worse to call, but I don't know if I have any bluff raises in my range at this exact spot? Villain's river bet looks like value and I've seen him take a very similar line (also a PSB, with the same chip splashing/cascading in the direction of opponent) with trips couple orbits previous. He might check a turn with a strong hand because I've been caught a few hands previous barrelling a turn with J-high.
  3. #3
    Ok got down to business and worked out some ranges:

    Villian might call the cbet on the flop with something like {ATo-AQo, A2s-AQs, TT,99, 88(discounted), 44(discounted), various club combos like KcQc, let's say 7 combos}

    Now once the turn has checked through and I've shown signs of giving up I think it's reasonable to expect villain to bet just about the entire range excluding say 99 and TT, so all Trips, all missed draws.

    If I've done my math right, that's like 5.8% of combos, and his continue to raise should be much much narrower - let's say he will call with AQ, shove boats and fold the rest. {AQ, A8s, A4s, 88, 44} which is 1.5%, so he's folding about 75% of his river bet range to a raise? I'm risking 72bb to win the current pot of 62bb, so I need him to fold 54% or more to bluff? If he would call as wide as AT though, he doesn't fold enough for us to bluff profitably, and possibly I shouldn't be thinking about making villains fold trips with AT at live 1-1 poker...

    If he does call with AT, bet/folding my straight seems good here. If he folds AT and AJ... I'm 50/50 and I break even, and he folds enough of his betting range to bluff with all my missed flush draws, possibly even wider?
  4. #4
    I think raise folding is fine here. It's definitely credible that you check back some boats on the turn as slow-play and then raise them on the river, so this hand is the bottom end of your ck turn/raise river range.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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  5. #5
    Fnord's Avatar
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    Not folding.

    It was heads-up to the flop.
    You have an unlikely straight and trips are a plausible hand for him.
    Last edited by Fnord; 06-12-2013 at 02:41 PM.
  6. #6
    i would not have folded in this situation but its still not a bad play at all
  7. #7
    Just to clarify, I raised his bet on the river leaving about half my stack behind. I was talking about my decision to raise/fold because of the unlikeliness here (or so I thought) that he's gonna 3bet me all in without a boat. In actual fact he folded and told me he had A2.
  8. #8
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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