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1/3NL: I block the nuts, you think we can get the 2nd nuts to fold?
Hero is OTB with Ad5h.
Folds to CO (~$160) who limps. This player seems kinda new to poker and is your dream station player. We have a bit of an interesting iso -> cbet history. He's beat me x/c'ing 42hh on A65cc flop and catching a 2 on the turn; I've beat him for a $200 pot vbetting two streets with JT on AT8 flop / double suited turn (he had 98) and I've PSBed 55 on 942tt flop, turn and river checked through and he mucked; several more hands like that; I'm yet to check back a flop and he's yet to fold to a cbet, yet neither of us has flopped top-pair+.
Anyway, he's not terribly important to this hand postflop, but I think preflop was interesting too. I don't like raising because cbetting anything but an A-high flop seems really bad against this player, and since this would be my first check back ever against him, so I'd think I'd see a lot of turn stabs, which means I would often end up raising preflop just to fold the best hand postflop. I could of course plan to raise preflop with the plan to check back a lot of flops with the plan to call a lot of turn donks based on sizing/tells/board/etc, but it just doesn't sound fun.
Limping just goes so hard against all of my years of training as a TAG internet player, but between the two ATC ranges of the blinds, and this guy's 50%+ limping range, my hand is probably a favorite; I'm rarely getting iso'ed by the blinds; and in a 4-way pot, everyone's going to play very straightforward, making it easy for me to get to showdown with A-high or bottom pair. So hot-and-cold equity advantage (in a spot where I can get to showdown easily) + position advantage + skill advantage = don't fold?
CO isn't a factor in this hand postflop, I just thought preflop was worth a discussion too.
I limp behind. SB completes (this room's resident OMC, sitting on ~$130).
BB checks. BB is just one orbit in, and it's very very rare for me to tag a LLSNL player as a TAG, but he bought in for the max of $500 (very rare from someone who doesn't seem like a total gamb00ler, especially since we're playing a 1/3 promotion where the max BI has gone up by 67%); he's already folded a SB instead of completing it (again, very rare); he's yet to limp; he's PFRed once. I've never seen him before, but he knew some of the players by name. We've had some friendly chats here and there, and he speaks competently enough about outs and such that he is at the very least an aware live reg.
My image doesn't really matter that much because BB's new to the table. I am young, wearing a hoodie and sitting on $1400, and I've raised a couple of times since he sat down, so BB might take from that what he will. CO isn't a factor postflop, and OMC isn't ever adjusting to my image, so who cares.
Flop ($11) comes Jd Tc 3d. Checks to me. I make a pretty good showing that I'd really like to bet, but ultimately check.
Turn is the 8s. Checks through without much thought from anyone.
River is the Kd. OMC leads out for $20. Our table's chatty Cathy--who has been amicably going at it with SB the whole time--says, "Mike, c'mon man, you're gonna bet $20 into, what is that? Like a $12 pot? What are you doin' man?"
Potentially TAGish player kinda quickly raises to $75. Folds to me.
Hero thinks maybe no one will be able to call a 3b?
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