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Originally Posted by baudib
Frankly I'm not sure his preflop sizing gives him a range that includes AA, I think 90%+ of all players 4-bet AA to like $130 or something. But whatever, I'll give him all AA and 1 combo of QQ.
95% of all LLSNL players don't 4b anything short of KK+, so any theory that leads us to conclude that we should bluff catch is dealing in the improbable as well. It makes sense to me that he'd do this with AA because he thinks you're FOS and doesn't want to fold your garbage when he holds a hand that is practically immune to bad flops. It's not what most people do, but FAR less people 4b QJs/J8s/76s/ATs/AQo, so I feel comfortable counting each combo of AA for at least 4:1 as any of the other possible 4b'ing hands.
In fact, even when we weigh combos based on sizing, I prefer the AA theory over the theory that he's doing this with a hand that he's trying to win without showdown, unless we're giving him credit for the incredible foresight to keep our range wide so he can bluff postflop (NOBODY thinks this way at these games). It could maybe be a strong broadway or medium pair that he thinks is too good to fold given the dynamic but doesn't want to play without initiative, but A) I still don't think that's any more likely than the AA theory, and B) that only adds a few combos of hands that have a ton of outs against us.
Now, the fact that his 4b'ing light range is {who the fuck knows}, there are going to be SO many possible combos, that even if they're weighed at 20%, there is a lot of room for an unpredictable range versus just 3 combos of AA. So if their line makes okay-ish enough sense with a wide range of bluffs, then we'll be committed to calling down even though we're not totally sure what the hell he's gonna flip. This is why I think we can call here if he shoves:
Board: Ks Qc 5s 3d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.608% 31.82% 15.79% 266 132.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 52.392% 36.60% 15.79% 306 132.00 { KK+, QdQs, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As3s, QsJs, JsTs, Js8s, 9s7s, AKo }
But when his line from beginning to end looks so incredibly valuey, I think it's just wishful thinking to expect him to flip a bluff. Once that initial improbability is multiplied by yet another tall improbability, the number of remaining combos can and will be dwarfed by a measly 5 not-so-improbable combos.
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