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What are the odds??

  
 
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3 pairs should be a hand
Old 06-22-2010, 03:20 AM     Post subject: What are the odds?? #1 (permalink)  
3-of-a-Kind

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3 pairs should be a hand is on a distinguished road
 I was recently playin a $5 sng on FT when I picked up AA. It was busted by J6h when he turned a flush. Next hand I got AA again and was again busted by 88 when he rivered trips.

If you're interested I'll tell you how I played the hands to lose but I'm more interested in the odds of that happening. I can't quite do the maths.

I can work out the odds of getting AA back to back (as I got QQ back to back a few years ago playing live) but what's the math to take it the stage further to incorporate losing to both hands.

Am I right that I was an 86% favourite over J6 (or is that wrong "cos they were suited" lol). And that I was around the 80% against the 88s.

Anyway I went from chip leader to out in those two hands.

There is a moral to the story but I'll post that after so as not to distract from the query

ty all
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supa
Old 06-22-2010, 04:47 PM #2 (permalink)  
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supa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of light
 I remember reading a post by spoonitnow saying that AA is 85% favorate to win if we get it once.I think this is assuming we're headsup.The math for twice or more is .85*.85 giving us a 72% chance to win both of them.Spoon took this farther to .85*.85*.85*.85*.85 giving us about a 42% chance to win all five.Take this formula over a lifetime career and AA gets sucked out on alot more then you think.

Variance is a bitch.

Hopefully some more experianced players will chime in on this one.
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drmcboy
Old 06-23-2010, 06:52 PM #3 (permalink)  
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DrButtInski
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 the moral(s):

download pokerstove/ visit ProPokerTools.com - Serious tools for serious players

Google the gambler's fallacy and then if you're still interested for some reason basic probability.
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3 pairs should be a hand
Old 06-24-2010, 12:08 AM #4 (permalink)  
3-of-a-Kind

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3 pairs should be a hand is on a distinguished road
 ty drmcboy I will look into the site u suggested.

I'd just like to know out of curiosity is all as in over 5 years of playing nothing like that has ever happened to me.
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Imthenewfish
Old 07-05-2010, 04:38 AM #5 (permalink)  
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bahahahaha you got pwnt
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